Bias-parameters
Lost traction may have cost buyers their bias-up.
[pay]The morning’s 942’50 bias-up signal barely held as support through the morning. A dip is still 1 tick above the 939’50 level that had defined the overnight accumulative probes. Those probes were already productive with a new high, so probes under 939’50 would now mean sellers are gaining traction.
Back above 944’50 would signal another attempt to test this morning’s 950’50 bias-up target. That would be difficult back under 938’00, which would make the retest of yesterday’s high capable of serving as this morning’s bias-up target instead. And this is not a good area for buyers to have no unfinished above.
For now, this morning’s pullback has a chance to recover going into and coming out of the noon hour. Buyers won’t have much of a chance to recover otherwise.
[/pay]
Morning bias
[pay]
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 943.25 | 942’50 |
| …would target | 951 | 950’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 937 | 936’50 |
| …would target | 930.75 | 930’00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
[/pay]
No-bias environment: a no-bias rally?
[pay]The 942’50 bias-up signal was still being tested at 1:20 to invoke the 10-minute grace period. It was still being tested at 1:30, officially triggering a no-bias environment. Having needed the grace period to do so, the 936’50 bias-down signal doesn’t need a test as would have been required otherwise.
It’s actually more possible (not necessarily likelier) to probe new session highs. But the no-bias environment and the running correction that preceded it make any near-term buying suspicious – too late and too early to be capable of straying too far from the mid-day range.
That’s an ideal situation to fulfill the 950’50 area, leaving time to also fulfill the Descending Triangle’s false breakout characteristic. Better buyers would waiting until the last hour approaches before extending the rally.
[/pay]
Afternoon bias
[pay]
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 943.25 | 942’50 |
| …would target | 951 | 950’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 937 | 936’50 |
| …would target | 930.75 | 930’00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
[/pay]
Morning bias
[pay]
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 927.25 | 926’25 |
| …would target | 934 | 933’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 917.50 | 916’50 |
| …would target | 911 | 910’00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
[/pay]