Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
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| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 909.75 | 908’75 |
| …would target | 915.25 | 914’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 901.75 | 900’75 |
| …would target | 895.50 | 894’50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, NEITHER SIGNAL TESTED | FAQ | |
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Late bias-up. Too late?
[pay]The 908’00 bias-up signal was thoroughly probed as support through 10:15. But its print was still part of the 3-minute bars surrounding the bias window, invoking the 15-minute grace period through 10:30. By then price had extended up to test 911’00, triggering a late bias-up signal.
The pre-open and opening range was narrower than yesterday’s wide swinging roller coaster, but the volatility was so much greater, that nothing could be taken for granted until the final opportunity for a signal to trigger. Even then, price action isn’t trending.
This environment is far from ideal. Overnight highs weren’t recovered through a relevant timing window, robbing buyers of some traction. Yesterday’s high is still being tested as support, to within 2 ticks of 908’00.
Perhaps the balance of the morning does fulfill its mandate to probe overnight highs up to the 914’25 bias-up target. Perhaps buyers get a benefit of the doubt so long as 908’00 isn’t touched, let alone broken. But the path there probably won’t be direct.
Meanwhile, there has been even more testing of the 903’25 level that was critical yesterday afternoon, and last night. This testing is chipping away at its support, and there but for the grace of a timing window break goes the next substantial downleg.
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Morning bias
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| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 909.25 | 908’00 |
| …would target | 915.25 | 914’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 900.25 | 899’25 |
| …would target | 892 | 890’75 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
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Bias-up target underway?
[pay]Buyers rested, having established the bias-up environment, expending a lot of energy to do so. A 6-1/2 point drop down to 899’00 was quickly retraced, mostly retraced. Recovering 904’00 should then extend higher to fulfill the afternoon’s 910’00 bias-up target.
Another dip under 902’00 had better recover so quickly that the probe looks like a bad print. Sellers start gaining traction under 899’75-900’50, and its support isn’t very strong since it was already tested once. This afternoon’s bias-up environment only assures buyers that their dips will be recovered – not that sponsorship will resume the rally – and the bias-up environment will start lapsing into 2:30.
Unless sellers gain traction at 910’00, it could be probed up above 914’00, especially if the target’s test is during the session’s last hour. Not that a probe above 914’00 would be maintained through the close – in fact, I’ll turn very bearish if its probe is reversed to close back under 910’00.
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Afternoon bias
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| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 903.25 | 902’00 |
| …would target | 911 | 910’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 892 | 891’00 |
| …would target | 883.25 | 882’00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
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