Bias-parameters
Morning bias
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| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 920.75 | 917’50 |
| …would target | 926.50 | 923’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 914.75 | 911’75 |
| …would target | 907.50 | 904’25 |
| Signal status:NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP SIGNAL AND TARGET | FAQ | |
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Afternoon bias
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| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 919.75 | 916’50 |
| …would target | 928 | 925’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 907.25 | 904’25 |
| …would target | 899 | 895’75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 922.25 | 919’00 |
| …would target | 928.75 | 925’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 916 | 912’75 |
| …would target | 910 | 906’75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL AND TARGET | FAQ | |
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No-bias rally, more unfinished business below.
[pay]Despite the no-bias environment, a break higher has touched the afternoon’s 917’25 bias-up target. If this is the triangle described previously, then this is its false break, with a retracement back into the pattern now likely. So, under 914’00 would target 908’50.
A Symmetrical Triangle’s false break might have been only premature, so its retracement would recover and resume the original breakout. Ascending Triangles tend to have broken in the wrong direction, so their retracements reverse down more substantially in the opposite direction.
The longer a pullback is delayed, the more likely that it is more than just a pullback. That assumes there’s a pullback, at all. Not pulling back would be equally likely either to drift higher or to just range sideways. So, equal chances at resolving up, down or flat – but a high likelihood that resolving down would mean falling sharply.
The difference may be decided by technicals. At this moment, the bias-up target has held another retest while both 1-minute and 3-minute MACD & RSI diverged negatively, pointing down.
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Another no-bias. What breakout?
[pay]The noon hour’s bounce touched the afternoon’s 911’00 bias-up signal, then reversed down for long enough to signal no-bias. This essentially puts into play a test of the 903’00 bias-down signal. Price could still range sideways until the no-bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30.
If that is delayed long enough, it could attract price down after the no-bias environment lapses, triggering a downleg that fulfills other unfinished business below. There is no unfinished business above, and it’s a day late for a higher close to confirm Monday’s breakout.
One new potentially bullish scenario is that today’s pattern may be forming an Ascending Triangle. Its first break would be retraced entirely, so a break higher could still develop, and a break down wouldn’t extend. But none of today’s price action constitutes accumulation.
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