Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
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| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 918 | 915’25 |
| …would target | 924.25 | 921’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 912 | 909’25 |
| …would target | 906.25 | 903’50 |
| Signal status: N0-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 929.50 | 926’50 |
| …would target | 936.50 | 933’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 922.50 | 919’50 |
| …would target | 915.75 | 912’75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, TARGET MET AND EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
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Bias-up signal. Invalidated.
[pay]The 920’50 bias-up signal was triggered through 1:20. Maybe. I’m a little suspicious because the past half-hour has simply consolidated 1 tick above the signal while technicals deteriorated. And also during that time a pattern formed that would trigger a drop under 920’75, so long as the consolidation holds 922’75 resistance.
Oh, and the signal level was broken as support at 1:30. This invalidates it, triggering a late no-bias. It doesn’t make the bias-down signal’s test any likelier. But then, nothing is very likely on a Friday afternoon.
The pattern targeting a return to negative territory remains in-play so long as 922’00 isn’t recovered… P.S. My sporadic disconnect between 1:00-2:00 has already begun in case there are any questions not addressed immediately… Also, my site’s host is not forwarding emails.
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Afternoon bias
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| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 923.75 | 920’50 |
| …would target | 928.25 | 925’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 918.75 | 915’75 |
| …would target | 907.50 | 904’25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, INVALIDATED | FAQ | |
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When is a no-bias not a no-bias?
[pay]The open’s surge probed overnight highs until testing the 923’50 bias-up target. Then a dive to new session lows tested 910’00 as support, in the process reversing back under the 917’50 bias-up signal. These two factors alone constitute a sell signal.
No-bias was signaled because the bias-up signal held its test through 10:15, putting into play a test of the 911’75 bias-down signal. This qualifies as a sell signal because of rejecting the bias-up target, first. This no-bias sell signal’s target is the 904’25 bias-down target.
The bias-down signal was still being tested by one of the 3-minute bars either way of 10:15, invoking a 15-minute grace period. That’s where the test of 910’00 occurred. The bias-down signal was still being tested at 10:30, but there’s no more grace period, so there isn’t a clear signal. RSI improvements at the low suggest a bounce, targeting either 916’00 or 917’50.
Meanwhile, there’s the no-bias sell signal. Its target is in-play, so any bounce remains likely to resolve down. The current bounce attempt could resolve down at any time this morning, or just range narrowly.
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