Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Testing the 1.1485 sell signal overnight and again Wednesday morning was held both times, suggesting an intraday test of the rally’s 1.1600 target will print before a durable decline develops.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing under the 1286.00 pullback limit could be absorbed by closing the same session back above 1289.00. At least overlapping 1286.00 through the close would undermine the downside momentum, keeping alive the attraction up to 1313.50. But a second consecutive close under 1286.00 would instead trigger a deeper pullback first, although probing fresh highs would still be likely to fail.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Barely managing to close back at or above the 17.50 pullback limit Tuesday still needed to resolve Wednesday morning in rally mode to prove the pullback had ended. Instead, it extended lower. Now a close above 17.50 is required before signaling the pullback has ended.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Ranging choppily around Tuesday’s 164-10 high did not reject the trending that is targeting 165-06. But it also created a pattern whose bearish resolution is likely to begin by gapping down. So, avoiding a gap down keeps in-play 165-06.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s probe under the 43.85 sell signal was likelier to be rejected than to extend down. But gapping up to the 44.50 buy signal proved too optimistic to withstand the morning’s EIA report. Its reaction back down to Tuesday’s 43.25 lows isn’t any likelier to extend down while unfinished business above remains outstanding at a new high close. but it is as vulnerable to break lower first.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Rather than first dipping to fill the gap back down to Monday’s 2.03 close, Wednesday’s open gapped up to test 2.14 resistance. Like Tuesday’s gap up to 2.07, the balance of the session only ranged narrowly sideways. Filling the gap would help to clear the way for a durable rally, which would otherwise be signaled by closing above 2.22. Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from an optimal position of strength.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Australia’s surprise overnight rate CUT produced a test of the 1.1600 target. Closing above it would trigger higher targets, but otherwise there is no unfinished business above. Closing negative Tuesday makes Monday’s 1.14.85 low a sell signal.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s choppy sideways ranging didn’t launch an immediate rally Tuesday, so any later probe higher is likely to hold a test of the 1312.50 target that closing above 1285.00 had triggered — so long as 1285.00 holds as support, which was tested Tuesday.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s pullback held a test of 17.50 to avoid signaling momentum reversing down. Meanwhile, a retest of the 18.05 area highs remains likely, and higher highs would resume the rally targeting 18.80.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing Monday under 162-12 was rejected by Tuesday’s gap up to and through recent 163-12 highs. Extending higher intraday to test 164-08  produced the third higher close required by last week’s confirmed breakout. Not reversing down immediately under 163-12 could extend to 165-00.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The pullback extended lower Tuesday and probed under the 43.85 sell signal. This should define the pullback to keep alive near-term potential to produce a required fresh high close. So, the sell signal’s test is suspicious, and rejecting it Wednesday wouldn’t be surprising.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up above 2.07 prior lows on Tuesday negated Monday’s late break that had closed lower. But the gap back down to Monday’s 2.03 close should be filled before a reliable rally leg can begin — which might help to explain why the gap up never improved intraday.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s confirmation of Thursday’s breakout had gapped up sharply and extended higher intraday. But that didn’t undermine its credibility for serving as confirmation, and for requiring yet another higher close. Not necessarily an immediate higher close, although Monday produced it. The next higher objective in-play is 1.1600 so long as pullbacks hold tests of Monday’s 1.1510 open.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Closing above 1286.00 Friday had put into play the next higher objective at 1312.50. Monday’s gap up attacked the target, which remains in-play so long as pullbacks now hold 1286.00 as support.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing Friday’s high above 18.05 Monday prevented the subsequent reversal down from forming an Island top. But there is room down to 17.50 or even to 17.35 before undermining the next upleg targeting 18.80.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite Friday’s higher close having confirmed Thursday’s breakout and now requiring an eventual third higher close, Monday’s opening dip  kept the door open to testing prior lows around 161-00 before extending the rally to its 165-00 target.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s weakness further delayed producing the third higher close still outstanding from last week’s confirmed breakout. Pullbacks meanwhile have room down to 43.85 without reversing momentum down.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s rally had closed high enough to undermine downside momentum,  but not high enough to reverse momentum up. Undermined downside momentum didn’t prevent  gapping down Monday to test Thursday’s lows and previous “lower prior highs” around 2.08. .

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday immediately exploited Thursday’s close above 1.1355 by gapping up to prior resistance at 1.1415 and trending up from there to probe prior highs up to 1.1475. Back under 1.1415 at any time would trigger a new downleg targeting fresh lows.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Trending higher overnight extended Thursday’s rally to sharply higher highs, probing 1286.00 resistance whose recovery through the close would target 1312.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Friday and trending higher intraday reinstates the rally’s momentum that is ultimately targeting 18.80. Having formed an Island, gapping down Monday back under 17.55 would create a detour back down first.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Friday was recovered into positive territory after Thursday had confirmed Wednesday’s breakout. Although at least an eventual higher close is now required — and an upleg triggered above 163-00 would target 165-00 — a detour can still fill the gap back down to 161-04 if not also briefly probe a fresh low under 161-.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Initially firming to test 46.75 was reversed intraday into negative territory, leaving outstanding at least one more eventual higher close before a reversal down would be credible from any higher than 43.10.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The overnight blip-down was retraced enough to open flat Friday, in a four-day setup that was unlikely to close lower. In fact, the session surged to attack 2.22 within a few cents, whose recovery would trigger a new upleg.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Except for closing above 1.1355, Thursday’s ranging around the 1.1345 bounce limit would have maintained the likelihood for filling the gaps back down to 1.1282 and 1.1249 before any durable rally would be credible. A second consecutive higher close would confirm a retest of the highs underway.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s post-close spike down to 1241.00 was retested overnight, and then recovered enough to gap up Thursday. Extending higher intraday filled the gap back to last week’s 1267.80 gap up above prior highs. Back under 1260.00 would signal the rally had ended, and under 1254.00 would reverse the trend back down.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s post-close dip was recovered overnight and Thursday continue firming intraday to within a nickel of filling the gap back to last week’s 17.64 high opening print.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing above the 162-14 buy signal Wednesday had initially extended higher overnight, but Thursday was mostly spent fluctuating narrowly around the buy signal. The gap back down to 161-04 can still be filled near-term.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s recovery to fresh highs firmed into Thursday’s open, testing 46.00. The sell signal cannot be raised higher than 43.85-43.90.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Thursday under 2.11 greeted the morning’s EIA report from a position of weakness. The follow-through was nominal, but a rally into the weekend is needed to avoid targeting fresh lows under 1.95.