Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The ongoing narrow trading range had tried breaking higher three times, and the first two times never reacted down under the range’s lows. The third breakout attempt also reacted back into the range, but then gapped down under it Wednesday to test the 1.1345 sell signal down to 1.1300. Confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Thursday would require an eventual third lower close. Otherwise, the breakout attempt will have held a test of support to make a rally leg even more likely, which would be signaled back above 1.1420.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
After only touching the 1253.00 pullback limit Tuesday, Wednesday’s open gapped under it and extended down enough to fill the first of two gaps below at 1244.00. The next lower gap at 1224.50 is in-play so long as 1253.00 isn’t recovered.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Diverging from Gold and breaking higher Wednesday could fulfill the minimum requirement for a third higher close after Monday’s confirmed breakout. But there is still potential for extending to 16.85.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing Tuesday under the 165-12 pullback limit that had held Monday has put into play a lower objective at 164-12/164-20, but Wednesday’s low came within only a quarter-point before bouncing back up to 166-00. Closing above 166-16 would signal that the corrective dip had ended.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already having met and held the 42.00-42.35 bounce target Tuesday, extending higher Wednesday was unlikely. Reaction to the morning’s EIA report left the upside target still attracting price to it, and now back under 41.20 would signal a downleg underway.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday above 1.95 and trending higher intraday, then surging into the close and firming further Wednesday, all matched last week’s temporary rally effort that was retraced back down under 2.00. Closing higher Wednesday instead confirms Tuesday’s rally and makes fresh highs likely.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
While Monday night’s fresh high proves that sellers aren’t exactly retaking control, not yet extending higher or reacting down sharply also reflects the current range’s attraction. Trending away from it the first time will likely retrace entirely.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing higher overnight was largely retraced into Tuesday’s open, which then extended down to the 1253.00 pullback limit. Bouncing from there stopped just short of a  second consecutive higher close, but the door open to retracing the recent breakout to 1244.00 and 1225.00. Extending higher anyway would target 1270.00 and potentially 1286.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending higher Tuesday instead of rejecting Monday’s close above 15.88 has confirmed a breakout, requiring at least one more higher close, and targeting 16.30 or 16.85.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s test of the 165-12 pullback limit was retested down to its 165-11 low Tuesday morning. And then lower, targeting 164-12/164-20 until recovering back above Monday afternoon’s 166-16 high.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s breakout and Monday’s confirmation weren’t optimal, but extended higher Tuesday anyway, filling the gap above at 42.00-42.35. It also fulfills the minimum third higher close of Friday’s confirmed breakout. The breakout and confirmation weren’t optimal, so the recovery remains vulnerable to reversing down quickly, and back under 41.90 would signal momentum reversing down.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday to and through 1.95 helped to offset Monday’s gap down, and to confirm the pullbacks have been from positions of strength. But a second consecutive higher close would be helpful confirmation to finally launching the next upleg.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The delayed reaction to a top at 1.1435 has undermined the topping pattern, so Monday’s probe of fresh intraday highs has potential to extend into a new upleg. It stopped pessimistically short of touching last week’s overnight probe of fresh highs at 1.1475, so any higher would likely extend.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s reaction up from the 1234.50 long-entry had already fulfilled the 1255.00 minimum objective overnight, but extended intraday to also fulfill the 1260.00 upper-end of its potential. Closing back under 1253.00 would signal that momentum is reversing down to fill gaps back to 1244.00 and 1225.00 instead of extending higher to 1270.00 and potentially 1286.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s close above the 15.25 bounce limit was extended Sunday night and then higher throughout Monday morning to 15.99. Closing back under 15.88 would signal the bounce had peaked, and probably reversing down to resume the decline targeting 14.70.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing Sunday night to 166-25 didn’t prevent resuming the pullback targeting 165-12, which was then fulfilled Monday morning. Reacting up tested positive territory above at 166-15.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Ranging around the 39.55 buy signal Friday was not rejected, and extended slightly higher Sunday night to test 40.75 intraday. That officially confirms Friday’s signal, but not convincingly, especially since neither session trended post-open.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Despite the intraday uptrend Thursday after gapping up above 1.95 resistance, and then Friday’s gap up, Monday’s open gapped back down under 1.95. The gap back to Wednesday’s 1.90 close was filled.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Is time up for a top? Despite still holding 1.1435 resistance all week, the 1.1345 sell signal has yet to break lower. Wednesday night’s brief probe above 1.1435 should have been rejected by now. Without already rallying Monday morning, the potential for reversing down will become much greater.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1234.50 pullback target was tested Thursday night by a blop-down that touched 1231.00. Although likely to resolve down, the corrective bounce targeting 1255.00 and possibly higher should now become obvious if valid.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still overlapping the 15.25 bounce limit keeps alive the potential for resolving the upward channel by breaking down to fresh lows at 14.70. But overlapping the bounce limit up to Thursday’s 15.36 high does threaten to violate it.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Friday to and through 166-19 from Thursday’s recovery high close now creates an attraction above that should enable recovering from a corrective dip down to 165-12/165-20.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Rallying sharply overnight from 38.25 through 39.05 greeted Friday’s open at 39.55, whose recovery would reinstate the attraction above to 42.00-42.35. Otherwise, having tested 39.55, closing back under 39.05 would signal the bounce had failed and begin reversing momentum back down.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Initially extending Thursday’s recovery into Friday’s open, the morning’s reaction down to test 1.99 support keeps alive the upward momentum, although a second consecutive higher close would be more bullish.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Probing a fresh high Wednesday night had been retraced before Thursday’s open, which continued to be resisted by 1.1435 to maintain the topping pattern while awaiting a break under the 1.1345 sell signal.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Surging overnight from Wednesday’s 1224.50 close retested last week’s overnight attack on “higher prior lows” up to 1245.00. Gapping up is still not a valid start to a durable rally, but this attempt my take multiple days and multiple legs before failing. Meanwhile, a dip to 1234.00 would likely recover to above 1255.00, so long as 1228.50 holds as support.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Testing the 15.25 bounce limit Thursday has threatened the 14.70 minimum pullback objective, which otherwise remains in-play.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
At least touching 165-00 “lower prior highs” Wednesday did not delay recovering Thursday, already probing Tuesday’s 166-15 prior highs up to at least 167-00. Gapping up from the corrective was an overly-optimistic start to resuming the rally, but a pullback to 165-12 can be avoided by holding 166-10.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s night’s test of 38.25 which had been critical support on the way down should launch the next downleg to the 34.25 and 31.85 targets. Closing above 39.05-39.10 would start to signal that downside momentum had lapsed.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Thursday back above 1.95 helped to confirm that Wednesday’s break under it was not strong-handed, and also confirmed that EIA was not being greeted from a position of weakness. Closing above 1.95 and higher would still signal a new upleg underway to probe above 2.08.