Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Extending higher Wednesday not only fulfilled the 1.1335 attraction, but also probed fresh highs up to 1.1391. Having begun the high’s retest from only a relatively shallow pullback, a topping pattern may now form and trigger back under 1.1319.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite probing higher after Tuesday’s close, Wednesday’s open gapped down and eventually fell further to 1223.00 support, whose recovery through the close maintains potential for resuming the recovery. Closing  back under 1216.50 would instead launch a new downleg.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing above Monday’s 15.38 high Wednesday, would have confirmed Tuesday’s recovery of 15.25, but initially probing above 15.40 was retraced back down to and through 15.25. Closing above 15.38 would still target 15.88.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s close above both 163-16 and Friday’s 164-10 prior high failed to confirm with a higher close Wednesday. The intraday reaction down to 162-23 recovered 163-16 whose recovery through the close would avoid greeting Friday’s Employment Situation report from a position of weakness.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up above 39.05 Wednesday was appropriate for rejecting Tuesday’s non-trending gap down that only hovered at prior lows. Initially extending higher also tested the 39.55 buy signal, but its reaction down filled the gap back down to Tuesday’s 38.35 close.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still firming Wednesday not only confirmed the recovery above 1.85 targeting 1.99, but also greets Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength likely either to extend sharply higher, or else first absorb an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday initially began retracing Monday’s firming — at least, correcting back towards last week’s lows. Reaction to Yellen’s noon hour comments triggered a surge attacking the 1.1335 attraction above. That’s now likely to be tested prior to a deeper pullback first, so also likely to be forming a top.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday morning’s probe above 1223.00 resistance touched 1229.00 before correcting back under 1223.00. The next break above 1223.00 on Yellen’s comments surged to test the 1240.00 area. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm the pullback had ended and the rally had resumed. No higher close would target at least a retest of 1223.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing well under 15.25 Tuesday morning was recovered in reaction to Yellen’s comments. Closing above Monday’s 15.88 high would have been more credible. But closing under 15.25 Wednesday would be unlikely to pause again before probing under 14.90 or lower.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Testing 163-16 again finally broke higher, aided by Yellen’s comments. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm a bottom had formed, just ahead of Friday’s payrolls report. Closing back under 163-16 would suggest otherwise, but fresh lows still aren’t in-play without also closing under 162-07.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s attack on 38.00 was probed under 38.00 Tuesday, after Sunday night’s probe above 39.55 failed into Monday’s open. Closing back above 39.55 would still target 42.00-42.35 where a more durable top could form.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The 1.85 challenge may be resolving higher as Tuesday’s probe above it extended higher intraday. A second consecutive higher close on Wednesday would confirm the 1.99 target is in-play.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming Monday filled Tuesday’s small gap back up to 1.1145 that had been left outstanding during last week’s slide. Closing higher Tuesday would suggest a top is already forming. Otherwise there remains potential for extending the pullback to 1.1150-1.1155.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s flash crash to 1206.00 was recovered before the open to regain the 1216.50-1223.00 range intraday. Closing above or below it at this stage would now be likely to extend in that direction.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday continued fluctuating narrowly around 14.25, and not forming a pattern with any predictive value either way.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying Monday morning tested 163-16 whose recovery would start to signal the bottoming pattern had completed already, still subject to a second consecutive higher confirming close. Back under 162-07 would target fresh lows at 160-28.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing above 39.55 Sunday night was erased by Monday’s open, and 39.55 held as resistance to a narrow intraday range. Recovering 39.55 would still target 42.00-42.35.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming Monday helped to confirm that Thursday’s softer reaction to the EIA report was not necessarily weakness, and it may have absorbed the last of a corrective dip before resuming the rally targeting 1.99.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
By gapping down within the prior day’s range instead of under it, Thursday’s open was the most bullish development since last week’s high. But it still didn’t react to 1.1190 support, suggesting a deeper pullback to 1.1150-1.1155 remains underway.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing $5 under the 1216.50-1223.00 target area overnight and then reacting up early Thursday to probe its upper-end may be helping to form a bottom. A couple of consecutive closes above 1223.00 would signal and confirm.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming from Wednesday’s test of 15.25 didn’t extend the break under 15.70, which will allow for a recovery to form without probing back under 14.70.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing intraday above 163-16 was reversed back into negative territory Thursday. Still overlapping it at Wednesday’s close keeps the door open to fresh lows targeting 160-28.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 39.50 pullback target was overshot Thursday down to 38.33, but then attack into the closing strength. Having tested “lower prior highs,” a retest of the recent 42.00-42.35 gap up would likely form a durable top.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
There was no clear resolution from greeting Thursday’s EIA report not from a position of weakness, but also not from a position of strength. But there was nevertheless a vulnerability to extending down, and it was not exploited. The session held 1.80 support, so closing back above 1.85 would be likely to resume the rally targeting 1.99.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down again Wednesday met the minimum objective at 1.1190, still having potential for extending down to 1.1150 before retesting last week’s highs.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing overnight to 1262.00 didn’t invalidate the bearish pattern which was confirmed by closing Tuesday under 1250.20. Extending down sharply overnight greeted Wednesday’s open at the minimum 1223.00 objective, which was probed during the morning to briefly test the lower target at 1216.50 before bouncing back up to 1223.00. A bottom may now form, but an immediate recovery attempt would be suspicious.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down and extending lower intraday Wednesday fulfilled the minimum objective at 15.25. No lower objective is required, although not recovering through Thursday morning would next likely probe under 15.00.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Completely retracing Tuesday’s gap up to and through the 162-07 bounce limit didn’t prevent rallying Wednesday back through the 162-07 bounce limit and the gap back to Monday’s 163-05 by several ticks. Closing back under 162-07 would resume the decline’s momentum, but meanwhile this bounce has potential to 163-16 before either resuming the decline or launching a massive rally.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down to and through recent lows Wednesday extended down through the morning to attack 40.00, likely heading to a test of “lower prior highs” at 39,.50 before filling last Friday’s opening gap at 42.00-42.35.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming immediately above 1.85 Wednesday still didn’t extend higher intraday as another slight dip developed. That pullback limit has failed to hold, but neither has it launched a new downleg, so a recovery remains possible.