Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Tuesday may be trying to accelerate the temporary dip back down to “lower prior highs” at 1.1190 down to 1.1155 as was suggested by two consecutive sessions of sliding shallowly but relentlessly off the high.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Terrorist fears triggered a rally that tested 1262.00 resistance overnight and the 1255.40 bounce limit intraday. Dipping back under 1250.20 helps to confirm the 1216.50 and 1223.00 targets remain in-play.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming Tuesday morning remained within the range and likely only noise before breaking back under 15.70 to the 15.25 target, if not also lower.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Falling stocks seemed to be the trigger for Tuesday’s gap up to the 162-07 bounce limit. But extending higher post-open to 163-00 accompanied stocks firming, and then recovering. Regardless of the intraday extesion, 162-07 failed to hold, leaving the decline’s momentum and its 160-28 target remain intact.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Strength attacking 41.75 stopped short of filling the opening gap back up to 42.00-42.35 before weakening again. A deeper detour to “lower prior highs” at 39.50 might inject itself before completing the topping pattern.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up 2 cents Tuesday suggested that Monday’s late probe under 1.85 could be rejected. But the balance of the morning dipped back down and probed Monday’s late low. Closing back above 1.85 would suggest the 1.99 target remains in-play.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s slow and shallow slide doesn’t complete a top, but it might launch an aggressive dip Tuesday before its recovery Wednesday or Thursday can begin completing a top. The alternative to dipping aggressively is to resume the rally, but likely only by surging — any muted strength would be less likely to extend.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Breaking Friday under 1262.00 to test 1250.20 support was not bullish, which Monday’s drop to 1242.00 proved. Closing under 1250.20 now allows no consideration for a buy signal before first testing the 1216.50-1223.00 target area.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up to 15.70 and extending to fresh highs intraday without closing above prior highs last week was bearish. Initial weakness Monday suggested as much, although the session mostly only ranged around unchanged.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
My concerns about Thursday and Friday’s “ineffectual optimism” were confirmed by Monday’s gap down that slid sharply intraday to retest the prior trading range. Monday’s 161-20 low would have been bullish support if tested before trying ineffectually to break high. Instead, it is now likely to be broken on the way to fresh lows at 160-28.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s weakness was recovered in time for Monday to range somewhat narrowly around unchanged. Friday’s gap open above prior highs at 42.00-42.30 (basis May, 40.70-41.00 basis Apr) should be retested to form a durable top.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Monday from Friday’s fresh high close now leaves “unfinished business above” that should help to attract price higher and resume the rally targeting 1.99, so long as the pullback holds its test of 1.85.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s open gapped down to test Thursday’s 1.1305 opening low, and then consolidated there through the morning. The confirmed breakout suggests that an even deeper pullback would recover to fresh highs, potentially from 1.1195.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Not extending the gap up above 1260.70 intraday Thursday made the level a pullback limit to maintain the potential for retesting 1288.00. Trending down overnight greeted Friday testing the 1250.20 sell signal. Recovering it to close back above 1260.70 is all but required, but under 1250.20 would target 1216.50-1223.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Despite extending higher to 16.12 briefly overnight, Thursday’s gap up to 15.70 was attacked Friday morning to within a nickel. Closing under 15.70 would target 15.25 and then fresh lows down to 14.90.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing higher overnight and gapping up Friday above 162-07 gave Thursday’s buy signal a chance to confirm. But not extending any higher intraday only undermined Thursday’s gap up further, beyond suspicions earned already by having failed to extend higher Thursday. Even the most bullish scenario probably can’t avoid first probing fresh lows down to 160-28.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up above the 40.35-40.40 target and extending to 41.20 didn’t prevent reversing down sharply intraday to test 39.70. Closing any lower would already start sealing a top But the gap back up to Friday’s open 40.70-41.00 will need to be filled eventually. And filling it before reversing down would form a more substantial top.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh highs overnight up to 1.96 were already retraced before Friday’s open, but the 1.99 target remains in-play.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Thursday extended the rally to fresh highs, while retesting the prior rally’s highs. Now pullbacks must hold 1.1255 to maintain momentum, and should hold it, since the prior pivotal high has been touched which all but requires fresh highs.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s post-close surge extended higher overnight into Thursday’s test of 1272.00 so that pullback limits could be raised Thursday morning to 1260.70, for maintaining upside potential to retest 1288.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending higher overnight to test 15.70 Thursday now puts the pattern at a crossroads of either launching a new upleg or else dipping back down to 15.25.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s eerie narrow ranging amid so much volatility was resolved by rallying overnight to gap up Thursday at or above the 162-07 buy signal, which still must be recovered through the close to trigger. Still hovering there through much of the day keeps teh door open to another drop targeting fresh lows at 160-28.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday night’s highs fulfilled expectations to retest the 39.00 high, but gapping up has created potential for that test to visit 40.40. It’s being attacked already, but there’s no room or time for a pullback if the upside remains intact.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength that at least assisted in absorbing the reaction down. Gapping up and reversing down was, in fact, absorbed. And it was resolved to probing fresh highs attacking 1.90.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Testing 1.1105 into Wednesday’s FOMC statement launched a surge to fresh highs above 1.2230 attacking 1.2275. Even the most bearish pattern is unlikely to reverse down immediately, but back under 1.1170 would start forming a Double Top.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite only hovering optimistically above Sunday night’s 1226.00 low, the reaction to Wednesday’s FOMC statement surged sharply through the 1243.00 bounce limit to test 1260.70 resistance by $2. All of which developed post-close, but a retest of 1288.00 is likely so long as 1250.20 holds as support.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Holding the 15.25 pullback limit enabled a favorable reaction to Wednesday’s FOMC statement. Attacking 15.70 after the close now needs to recover 15.70 through Thursday’s close to even suggest a bigger rally underway.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s reaction to the FOMC statement was surprisingly muted, as price ranged narrowly around the gap back to Friday’s 161-16 close that was filled already Tuesday.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s tepid break under the 36.95 sell signal was recovered Wednesday to confirm that a retest of the 39.00 high remains likelier to form a more substantial top, although resistance is already in-play upon filling the gap back to Friday’s 38.60 close.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Flat, narrow ranging Wednesday is greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength, having rallied with restrained optimism and still targeting 1.99.