Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The rally extended to its target, nearly touching 1.1000. Back under 1.0950 would start to signal the bounce”s momentum was reversing down. Closing above 1.1020 would signal the bounce was not only a bounce, but potentially the start of a much larger rally.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Aided by news of direct US-Iran conflict, a pullback to 1194.50 was avoided by surging higher to test 1213.00. Back under 1208.50 would signal the pullback underway.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Early strength Tuesday surged to the upper-end of the 16.45-16.60 resistance band whose lower-end had held Monday. Now a pullback could be limited to testing the lower-end of the band, but any lower would still target 16.10.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
No overnight improvement above the 61.8% resistance that was tested intraday found Tuesday”s open dipping back down to 162-00 support, and through it at least 4 points to trigger its sell signal, which attacked 161-08 intraday.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Narrow ranging between 56.60-57.70 (which I under-reported here by $1 each yesterday) persisted through Tuesday. And this was in spite of news of a direct confrontation between US and Iran. Breakout potential above 57.70 is getting less likely.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming above 2.51 doesn”t offset the preference for retesting the 2.48 opening gap before trying to launch a durable recovery leg.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Higher highs Monday kept alive potential for extending the bounce to attack 1.1100, so long as 1.0845-1.0855 holds as support.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday”s test of the 1170.00-1174.00 target to within a dime proved enough for a bounce Sunday night that retraced 61.8% of the drop from Thursday”s high. But that was nothing. Monday”s opening gap up consolidated briefly around 1185.00, and then surged sharply to eventually probe attack 1207.00. That”s hardly a stable base to launch a recovery, so at least a dip back to 1194.50 is likely.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 4-day sequence of unconfirmed breakouts was followed by Monday”s gap up to 15.85 that extended sharply higher post-open to 16.45. That”s the lower-end of resistance up to 16.60, which will be difficult to recover without first testing 16.10 as support.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday”s 61.8% retracement of the last downleg proved enough for renewed dipping Monday to test 162-00 support. But no lower, as its test at Monay”s open was recovered to within 10 ticks of the 163-18 bounce limit.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Narrow sideways ranging neither pierced the 57.70 (not 56.70) buy signal. It would not be able to tolerate any hesitation the following day, so its break had better be sure about itself. The buy signal”s potential remains alive so long as the 56.58 (not 55.58) pullback limit continues holding as support — which it did, throughout Monday”s lows.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down into the front-month roll (from May to Jun) doesn”t allow a buy signal to form, let alone to trigger, before another session retests Monday”s 2.49 opening print. But doing so after closing above 2.51 could find a very quick upleg underway to 2.73, 2.80 and 2.90.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday morning”s setup targeting a probe above 1.0900 was fulfilled already overnight. Its reaction down Friday morning was recovered to at least hover around 1.0855.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday”s bounce held the 1194.50 sell signal”s 1197.50 bounce limit. Despite not immediately confirming Wednesday”s sell signal, Friday compensated for the delay by dropping more than $20 to the 1170.00-1174.00 target area”s upper-end.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows Friday down to 15.55 keep the decline”s momentum intact so long as bounces now hold 15.85-15.90.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday”s open and close both tested the 162-00 bounce limit, which extended higher Friday to probe 163-00. Room up to 163-18 remains alive so long as 162-00 now holds as support, and its break would resume the decline.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday”s bounce was undermined Friday by dipping back down to 56.68 pullback limit instead of extending higher to probe above 57.70 for a second consecutive session.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming Friday would have helped to confirm that Thursday”s gap down didn”t damage the potential bottoming pattern. But the session ranged flat-to-lower into the weekend. Closing above 2.57 would still signal the drop had ended, and closing above 2.60 would launch an upleg targeting the 2.80 area.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday night”s retest of Monday night”s ~1.0675 low was recovered back above downtrending resort. I had described that during the pre-open Tour as being bullish for a test of 1.0820, and potentially also to attack 1.1000. Thursday”s rally did retest the 1.0855 target where Friday”s open had peaked. Extending higher now requires pullbacks to hold 1.0825.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday”s intraday bounce to the 1194.50 sell signal didn”t confirm Wednesday”s break under it. But neither did it invalidate the break, which would require recovering at least 1197.50. And that was being tested after Thursday”s close.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The second consecutive attempt to confirm a breakout was attempted initially Thursday, but most of the session firmed flat-to-higher. This was likely based on the Mon-Tue unconfirmed breakout. The pattern can repeat indefinitely, probing lower and lower lows, so long as 16.10 isn”t recovered.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday night”s bounce to 162-00 resistance was reversed down to a fresh low at 161-02. It was recovered Thursday afternoon to retest 162-00. That won”t prevent extending down into the weekend, triggered back under 161-10. But it also failed to confirm Wednesday”s breakout, so a bigger corrective bounce has potential to 163-18.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Another test of the 55.88 pullback limit Wednesday night was recovered for an unremarkable open Thursday. A late morning surge tested 58.40. There remains potential to 59.30.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s EIA report wasn”t being greeted from strength, or from downtrending weakness. Gapping down ahead of the report discounted the reaction, but the session still failed to recover from testing 2.54 support. Closing above 2.60 is still required to launch the next upleg.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming overnight to test 1.0800 was retraced intraday. Now, recovering 1.0780 should at least target 1.0850. But there is still no signal for the next major leg.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Closing Tuesday above its gap up after testing 1194.50 support had left no bullish reason to delay extending the rally, let alone to ever revisit 1194.50. But Wednesday”s open gapped back down to and through Tuesday”s gap up, then extended back down to and through 1194.50. Without recovering 1194.50, the break would target 1169.00-1174.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing overnight into the 16.02-16.10 resistance range was rejected by a break to fresh lows Wednesday, qualifying as a breakout. Following a two-day unconfirmed breakout with another breakout tends not to be confirmed, either. The sequence can continue indefinitely, with potential to 14.95.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initially probing back above the 163-18 sell signal Wednesday was quickly rejected by a deep drop to fresh lows at 161-08, finally probing under the 4-week old low. A one-day plunge probably won”t satisfy the extended distribution, and a second consecutive lower close Thursday would be predictive, but the decline”s momentum remains intact so long as bounces hold 162-00.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 55.88 pullback limit was probed by 15 cents overnight. Its post-open retest reacted up sharply in reaction to Wednesday”s EIA report. But the rally hasn”t yet resumed, and remains vulnerable to a deeper correction.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up again Wednesday tested the 2.60 buy signal (basis May, 2.65 basis Jun) whose recovery would target the 2.80/2.85 area. No alternate pattern is in-play.