Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Fresh highs intraday Friday were retraced into the afternoon. The outstanding requirement for a third higher close may have been delayed only until Monday, but there is no timing element to the requirement.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s eerily detached complacency was broadsided Friday by bad economic news from Italy, which triggered a spike down to fresh lows. A third lower close has been required, but Friday’s opportunity was rejected by recovering back into positive territory. Momentum did not reverse up, so Monday may yet fulfill the pattern, but trending up Monday would suggest a bigger bounce underway.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The bounce to 1326.00 resistance held a retest overnight before reversing back down to greet Friday breaking back under 1313.00 support. A third lower close — probably around 1284.00 is back in-play, so long as 1313.00 isn’t recovered through the close.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s drop back under 21.05 signals that Thursday’s test of 21.28 resistance had held, and that a drop to fresh lows was underway, targeting at least 20.55 so long as 21.05 isn’t recovered on a closing basis.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing Thursday above 138-00 put into play 138-28, which was attacked to within 5 ticks before reacting down intraday to 137-23. Not recovering to close back above 138-10 would suggest the probe above 137-22 did not gain traction, and whether part of a top or only a correction, that a deeper retracement would begin into the weekend.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The Island Reversal rally extended overnight to within a dime of the 104.05 target. Overnight gains were retraced before Friday’s open, removing any trace, but not reversing momentum down without also closing under 102.90.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s reaction to EIA remained under pressure Friday, potentially forming the third stage of a reversal pattern that still requires troughing before even considering a recovery.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Currencies were eerily calm Thursday amid the tragic geopolitical developments. None of Tuesday and Wednesday’s accomplishments were undone, but one more new high close might be difficult to extend.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s narrow ranging at Wednesday’s lows underscores the attraction to at least one more lower close. But not yet bouncing to correct the drop does make one more fresh low close vulnerable to being a last, or among the last before reversing up more substantially.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming early Thursday extended sharply on the news from Russia-Ukraine. Exceeding 1313.00 triggered an upleg to 1326.00 resistance. There is room for noise up to 1332.50, but otherwise another drop should begin relatively soon to produce the outstanding fresh low close.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s bounce on the day’s big news extended through 21.05 to 21.28. That had needed to hold as support to avoid extending down originally, so its resistance should hold to avoid a much bigger detour before producing the outstanding new low close.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s Ascending Triangle broke higher pre-open to gap up Thursday, fulfilling its 137-28 objective. Perhaps the mid-morning news was responsible for extending the rally to test 138-00, whose recovery puts into play 138-28, with interim resistance at 138-10.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s Island Reversal pattern extended higher Wednesday night and pre-open Thursday, gapping up sharply again — as is the characteristic of the pattern’s impatient optimism. Just filling the gap back up to 102.90 made 104.05 the bounce’s likely target. A pullback from filling the gap was recovered, suggesting the bounce’s momentum remains intact.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The opportunity to recover 4.12 ahead of Thursday’s EIA report was still being tested through Wednesday’s close (through its entire session, actually), leaving the pattern vulnerable if not likely to react down sharply to new lows. Unless recovered considerably into the weekend, a lower low is likely.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Gapping up Wednesday tested another higher prior low, but also confirmed Tuesday’s break, which now requires an eventual third higher close. Closing above 80.75 would also confirm that the higher close is part of a much larger rally.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s gap down remained lower throughout the day, confirming Tuesday’s break under the recent trading range. This setup now requires an eventual third lower close, albeit not necessarily immediately. No earlier rally effort would be credible for gaining traction or for being very productive before extending back down.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having confirmed a breakout during the prior two sessions that now requires an eventual third lower close, Wednesday’s small bounce suggests the requirement will be fulfilled sooner rather than later.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s inside day closing negative doesn’t satisfy the requirement for a third negative close that was created by the two prior sessions’ confirmed breakout.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Another attack on 136-16 support was recovered prematurely to test 137-07 resistance. A fresh high to 137-28 is possible before reversing down. Closing above 138-00 would target 138-28.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s gap up formed an Island Reversal that is immediately testing the 101.25 reversal signal. It’s upside potential is to 102.45, or else to 104.05. Regardless, Islands are made to be retested, so an eventual fresh low fulfilling the 98.40 target is likely.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already testing Tuesday’s 4.12 high overnight, Wednesday’s gap up ranged there narrowly intraday. Closing above 4.19-4.21 would signal the Falling Wedge had broken higher, targeting 4.38 initially.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s bounce above 80.25 resistance to 80.45 barely touched higher prior lows before forming an Ascending Triangle. The shallow depth reflects pessimism that is bullish from a contrarian perspective, and the pattern reflects accumulation that is likely to break higher. A second consecutive higher would signal a new rally leg is underway.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Broke to fresh lows and prior support at 1.3560, with room down to 1.3550 before signaling a durable downleg underway. Otherwise, closing back above 1.3585 would target new relative highs, and probably quickly.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday morning’s bounce barely probed 1313.00 resistance before reversing to new lows at 1292.50. At least 1284.00should be tested, too, especially so long as 1306.50 isn’t recovered.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s very shallow bounce held 21.05 resistance and reversed down to fresh lows testing 20.75. A lower low would target 20.55, and and then much lower if not rejected and recovered.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 136-16 pullback objective was attacked to within 1 tick before bouncing back into positive territory. Potential to 137-08 was exceeded but not maintained, and the pattern was left again with no active actionable parameter.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Another shallow overnight bounce resolved down to fresh lows. The 98.40 target was attacked to 99.01 before bouncing. The target remains intact so long as bounces now hold 100.00 as resistance. Back above 101.25 would signal momentum reversing up.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
More narrow ranging at or under the 4.15 targeted support has been under it than at it. But the price action remains contained within a Falling Wedge that defines the past several sessions, and back above the pattern’s downtrending resistance would be bullish.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s narrow ranging around 80.25 has only formed an extended narrowing range — if that — which would suggest the first trending attempt will be false. But there is still no active signal.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Popping up Monday to attack the recent bounce’s peak didn’t make any more of a signal than there was when the bounce was fulfilling its target. This is still noise within the range, as suggested by the drop back to Friday’s close.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dropping overnight through 1332.50 extended down sharply under 1326.00 and even 1313.00 to confirm Thursday’s breakout wasn’t valid. A second consecutive lower close would confirm the trend had reversed down, but otherwise a bounce back to 1326.00 resistance is likely.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The attraction below to 21.28 was extended considerably as Monday trended down to fresh relative lows at 21.90. A second consecutive lower close would signal the trend had reversed down, but otherwise a bounce to 21.28 is likely.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
An actionable pattern may have formed since fulfilling the 137-22 target and immediately filling the gap back down to its 136-30 prior close. That gap was retested Monday, and extending down to close under 136-14 would trigger a new downleg targeting 134-22. There is no active buy signal.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Probing fresh lows into Monday’s session extended down only slightly to attack 100.00. But the 101.25 bounce limit wasn’t recovered, so the decline’s momentum remains intact. That said, back above 100.88 would start to suggest the drop’s momentum has lost traction.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s dip back down to 4.15 support didn’t extend Monday, either, two days that would be most vulnerable to trending down if that were the market’s intent. Recovering above 4.21 would signal a new upleg underway.

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