Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Middle East tensions have entered the equation as uncertainty and threats further influenced Gold and Crude Oil. Interestingly, the Dollar has never been more glaringly missing from the destination list for a “flight-to-safety.”

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s dip away from recent highs didn’t gain traction. There is no requirement to retest last Thursday’s high, but its retest remains possible.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
A fresh low overnight was recovered into Thursday’s open and extended back into the 1.3570-1.3580 range that previously had attracted price back down. A bottom hasn’t yet formed, but sellers haven’t gained any new traction despite three days of pressure.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s surge fulfilled the upside potential to 1274.00. A reaction down held 1270.00 to avoid reversing down, and recovered to retest 1274.00. This is the likely peak for a correction.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending higher Thursday to test 19.55 has stretched the corrective bounce past its normal range. Closing under 19.20 would signal a retest of the lows underway. There is otherwise potential for extending up to 19.85.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s bounce tested 136-00 and didn’t react down in time to suggest the bounce wasn’t aiming higher to 136-18. Closing back under 135-22 would signal the bounce had ended, and a new downleg was likely underway.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
An overnight surge broke the two-day Symmetrical Triangle that had formed through Wednesday’s close. The open’s gap up creates a tether to keep a reaction down from reversing the trend’s direction, yet. The session trended up to test 106.55, targeting 107.40.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s reaction up to the EIA report proved the two-day dip was constructive pessimism ahead of the news, as it produced a 17-cent surge to 4.71 resistance, which extended higher to fresh highs at 4.76 and a 25-cent gain on the day. Pullbacks must now hold 4.71 as support to maintain the rally’s potential next to 4.86.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Wednesday’s coverage was largely comprised of inside days. Precious Metals were an exception that still failed to extend or to reverse. Natural gas was an exception that eked out slightly lower lows. There’s nothing particularly interesting about it, except that the stock market was reacting down under several sessions’ lows.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Gapping down Wednesday didn’t extend down, as strength in the Aussie, Loonie and Pound was held back by a weaker Euro. Fresh highs aren’t required before reversing down more substantially, but remain possible.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
A slightly weaker session Wednesday kept alive potential for retesting last Thursday’s low, which still isn’t required before a more substantial rally were to emerge.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Wednesday to probe Tuesday’s high was retraced through the session to probe under Tuesday’s low. A fresh high testing 1274.00 is no less likely, but this still remains within the context of a temporary corrective bounce.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap up reacted down through the session, still likely to resolve by retesting recent lows before a more productive and durable rally can launch.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Narrow range-bound price action Wednesday offered no new signals, other than to further suggest the potential for firming or bouncing before a more substantial downleg were to begin.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s inside day offered no new signals, but did start to form a Symmetrical Triangle. The pattern’s first trending attempt tends to be false before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Slightly lower lows Wednesday extended to a dime the probe under its 4.61 pullback limit. That’s not yet an irrecoverable problem for resuming the rally. But a very favorable reaction to Thursday’s EIA report should be the minimum compensation for having extended the pullback. Unless it is not a pullback, and deeper reaction is coming.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Sleeping dogs don’t lie around for very long. Gold had hovered at support before Friday’s Employment Situation report, and then it hovered under resistance for a couple of days. Despite testing another resistance, it shouldn’t lie around here very long, either.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Gapping up Tuesday fulfilled the outstanding retest of last Thursday’s ~80.80 opening gap above all prior highs. Also retesting Thursday’s ~81.07 intraday high would become vulnerable to reversing down and forming a durable top.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s gap down probed under 1.3580 and 1.3570 which both required being retested. Last Thursday’s 1.3505 actual low wasn’t tested, which would help to form a bottom if probed and then recovered back above 1.3580 and 1.3570.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Chipping away at 1256.00 resistance spiked higher Tuesday to test 1263.70 resistance, and then only ranged sideways. Any higher would target 1274.50, but otherwise back under 1254.50 would signal another downleg underway targeting fresh lows at 1236.50.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap up to 19.25 only ranged sideways narrowly at the prior three sessions’ high centered around 19.15. Back under 19.05 would target new lows under 18.65.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Dipping slightly Tuesday did not resume the recent weakness, nor did it form a bottom that might launch a plausible recovery. But unless 135-22 were recovered, back under 134-24 and 134-18 would launch a new downleg.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s attack on prior highs wasn’t rejected Tuesday, but neither did it maintain the morning’s extension higher that touched 105.00 intraday. No second consecutive higher close suggests that the rogue surge’s intent was limited to retesting the prior highs, and not to launching a new upleg. Regardless, a downleg requires closing back under 103.50.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Tuesday to the 4.61 pullback limit extended down intraday to 4.54, which is slightly deeper than a more constructive backing-and-filling from last week’s fresh highs. Back above 4.61 by an amount equivalent to probing under it would confirm a new rally leg is underway.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Generally optimistic economic signals is entirely responsible for Monday’s gap up from the recent dive back above the recent trading range. Apparently, no one knew exactly how the economy was doing until US and China government reports educated us. That story should be reliable for finally retesting prior highs, but a new upleg wouldn’t be credible at this stage of the pattern.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Gapping up Monday to test 62.70 makes the 62.80 gap back to Thursday’s open likely to fill before a durable downleg could begin.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s dip attacking 1.3580 is still likely also to test Thursday’s 1.3570 gap down. And that’s likely to finish forming a bottom, since Thursday’s recovery avoided extending higher without first refueling.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight action had retested the 1256.00 bounce limit, but intraday action only ranged narrowly sideways, still vulnerable if not likely to retest recent lows.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s narrow ranging didn’t get free from the attraction back to last week’s lows, which would allow a durable bottom to form.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s intraday reaction down extended to test 135-00 support, still not clearly extending the decline, although any lower close would be credible. Meanwhile, another bounce to 135-22 is possible first.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Gapping up sharply Monday above 103.50 retraced all of last week’s failed bounce, back to the resistance that had sent price lower twice. Th 102.40 support had been chipped away, but the gap up extended to test 104.30. Fresh highs are now all but required, but the gap back to Friday’s close will require being tested eventually.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Despite firming pre-open to a fresh high attacking 4.75, Monday dipped to test what is now the past two weeks’ “lower prior highs” at 4.65. Holding its test should help to propel the upleg higher.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight This is being prepared intraday since I will be unavailable this afternoon. Where markets were still trading, any late swings might affect the analysis. Enjoy the weekend.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s Employment Situation report didn’t upset pricing too much, despite Thursday’s swings reflecting a lot of elasticity. This further suggests Thursday’s reversal down will extend lower into the new week.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s Employment Situation report was almost a non-event according to the chart. Thursday’s swings reflected a great deal of elasticity, so Friday’s lack of reaction suggests higher highs will greet the new week.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
A blip-up in reaction to  Friday’s Employment Situation report finally tested 1256.00 resistance, but only momentarily before reversing down to attack 1244.00 support. The two levels continued containing price action into the afternoon, keeping price within the gravitational pull of retesting the lows.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s Employment Situation report triggered a blip-up to 19.20 resistance that was reversed back down into negative territory. A fresh low remains likely before a bottom can finish forming.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing to 136-10 resistance held through Friday’s Employment Situation report reaction. That’s where the rally’s last upleg had been signaled, so not recovering it keeps alive the potential for a bigger reversal down to be unfolding.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s bounce up to 102.40-102.65 resistance hadn’t been rejected, which allowed Friday’s open to gap up and test 103.05. But that was not accumulative nor was it a buy signal, and the gap up was reversed into negative territory back under 102.40. The burden of proof remains on buyers as a bigger downleg may be getting underway.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The reaction to Thursday’s EIA continued firming Friday to fresh highs above the 4.71 resistance. Pullbacks should now hold 4.61 to maintain the bigger rally leg.

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