Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s corrective bounce took on an unexpected dimension when the bounce limit was broken by a massive rally Thursday. The rush to own physical seems to be due to recent dynamics, and it has benefited from the elasticity indicated by the week’s earlier temporary dive. Extending any higher into the weekend could extend substantially higher next week, and that could not avoid having significant implications elsewhere.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s dip stretched the rubber band to the range’s lower-end, and held. Any deeper would signal a new downleg underway. There is otherwise resistance above 80.75 whose recovery would signal a retest of recent highs.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Being a second consecutive higher close, Thursday’s gap up and rally to 1.3650 resistance has cleared the way for any further strength into the weekend to reverse momentum up. There is otherwise no active signal.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The bounce into Thursday’s open had retraced enough of Tuesday’ drop to retest Monday’s attack on 1284.00 resistance. But that didn’t stop a substantially stronger and gargantuan sized rally from extending sharply higher to attack 1319.00. A trading range back down to 1300.50 is likely, and any lower close would signal the leg was reversing down.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The recovery back to 19.82 resistance extended higher to gap up Thursday at 20.00 and extend sharply higher to 20.85. A pullback to 20.45 is likely, and only its break would signal momentum reversing down.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s early bounce stopped just short of fully testing 136-10 resistance before reversing to test 135-00 down to 134-25. The dip seems a little premature since 136-18 was next in-line to be able to launch a downleg. So, I can’t give sellers a benefit of the doubt for more than just keeping the market range bound.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
An early test of 105.70 support reacted up intraday Thursday. Its reaction up avoided triggering the sell signal, so a fresh high remains possible — if not also likely — before a new downleg can begin.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday morning’s bounce ahead of the EIA report was rejected back down to and then through the 4.61 pullback limit. It must be recovered without delay Friday, and then back above 4.71 would launch a substantial upleg to fresh highs.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Wednesday’s FOMC news tried injecting volatility into an environment that wasn’t lacking it.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s gap down was shallow, and even a volatile reaction to the FOMC news barely changed the index’s direction.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping up Wednesday to test 1.3580 resistance helped to position the FOMC reaction to test 1.3600, but it was retraced back down to 1.3550 and still hasn’t triggered a recovery.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s recovery had already extended slightly Wednesday morning. The FOMC news shook things up a little, spiking down to 1266.50 but 1274.00 still attracted price back up to it and held as resistance.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s recovery extended Wednesday to retest the 19.82 bounce objective that had been tested only before Tuesday’s old signal the trend reversing back down.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Early weakness was already being recovered when FOMC news triggered a bounce back up toward Monday’s 136-10 high, with potential for testing the original 136-18 bounce limit.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh lows probed under the 106.00 lower prior highs whose test Monday had triggered a bounce. The bounce didn’t probe fresh highs, so Wednesday’s lower low is only a threat. But closing under 105.70 would get every benefit of the doubt for having reversed the trend down.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up to test 4.76 resistance didn’t prevent returning to 4.71 support, and through it to attack the 4.61 pullback limit. The pessimism ahead of Thursday’s EIA report may be bullish from a contrarian perspective.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s wild swing recovered from sharply lower lows. The brevity of its depression doesn’t make the intraday recovery much likelier to extend much higher for much longer. But it does suggest there is a perception of value below, and not of risk, which would be defended on further attacks.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s bounce to 80.75 is significant resistance that recovering would target a retest of the 1-1/2 week old high, before being able to launch a new downleg under 80.45.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s bounce to 1.3580 had stopped short of reversing momentum up. The door was left open to probing fresh lows, which Tuesday’s drop made likelier, but did not signal was in-play.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dropping sharply overnight gapped down significantly to 1258.00, a 61.8% retracement from Monday’s high back to June’s lows. It was almost all recovered to attack 1274.00 resistance. The bounce could extend to 1278.00 before reversing back under 1270.00 and 1267.70 to signal the drop had resumed. Closing back above 1278.00 would signal a corrective dip had just ended, and a new rally leg was underway.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Having neutralized both upside attractions on Monday, Tuesday’s open gapped down and extended lower to 19.45 support. Reacting up immediately extended back to Monday’s 19.72 intraday highs, potentially targeting a retest of 19.82 and higher.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite the bounce testing only 136-10 resistance and not 136-22, Tuesday’s early drop extended down intraday to attack 135-00. A second consecutive lower close on Wednesday would confirm a new downleg is underway.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Sliding overnight to attack 106.00 support held through the morning, suggesting that the narrow range’s first break was false, and that at least a probe of fresh highs should be obvious shortly. A second consecutive lower close Wednesday would be bearish.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s test of 4.71 support extended the test already underway through Monday’s close. There is nothing bearish about the test, only the growing potential for a detour down to 4.61 before resuming the rally.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight A number of overnight moves were not evident from intraday action, having been retraced before Monday’s open. None retraced enough to reverse momentum in the opposite direction, suggesting that any trending attempted Sunday night will be repeated before reversals can develop.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s dip to 80.50 could serve as the pullback’s low, but extending under 80.45 would signal a new downleg had begun.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Firming Monday held 1.3580 and stopped short of reversing momentum up, leaving potential to retest recent lows.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite rallying overnight to 1281.00 resistance, the corrective bounce’s 1274.00 limit was retraced as support. Monday’s opening gap may attract price higher eventually, but extending back down any further Tuesday should trigger a retest of the recent lows.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight highs probing a nickel above 19.82 resistance weren’t repeated intraday. But the post-0pen dip into negative territory was recovered back to the open’s gap up. There is now no unfinished business above.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh bounce highs reached only 136-10 before faltering Monday, leaving potential to 136-18 that still inhibits a new downleg from launching. An FOMC decision and quarterly chairman Q&A is one day away.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
An unchanged situation in the Middle East over the weekend kept Monday’s open unchanged from last week’s close. Monday’s action wasn’t volatile, slipping from 107.45 resistance to 106.75 support. The first break either way would be suspicious until confirmed by a second consecutive close.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
A fresh high overnight tested 4.80, but reversed down intraday back under the 4.71 pullback limit. Its recovery wasn’t maintained, closing back under 4.71. The rally must resume without delay Tuesday to avoid a deeper dip to 4.61.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s inside day didn’t offer new information or context for the pattern, except that further delaying the recent high’s retest makes new highs likelier to become a new upleg.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping down trending down Friday while still being an inside day suggests the pattern’s ultimate resolution will be up. But a retest of recent lows must be rejected without delay to avoid becoming a new downleg.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sideways ranging probed 1274.70 resistance up to 1278.00, which must be rejected by Monday afternoon to avoid extending the bounce to 1291.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s session firmed to fresh recovery highs testing 19.67, continuing its relative outperformance to Gold, next targeting 19.82 if not reversing down by Monday afternoon.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s close above 135-22 was seemingly rejected at Friday’s opening gap down back to and through 135-22. But a reaction up from “lower prior highs” around 135-08 extended back to Thursday’s high above 136-00, still targeting 136-18.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Overnight highs tested and retested the 107.40 target, retracing back under Thursday’s highs into Friday’s open. The balance of the session gradually firmed to test 107.15 ahead of the weekend’s Middle East unknown.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh highs overnight tested 4.80 before spending Friday’s session hovering above 4.71, which needs to hold as support to maintain the rally’s momentum.

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