Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Moves underway Friday extended Monday. At least, into Monday’s open. Not much follow-through during the balance of the day all but requires extending overnight again, or else reversing back into last week’s ranges.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Ranging back down to last week’s lows doesn’t suggest the basket as a whole is extending down. But there is no active buy signal.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s recovery back above 1.3580-1.3600 extended higher Monday to signal a bigger upleg underway. That isn’t very attractive, but it does undermine a reversal down attempt on Tuesday.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh highs Sunday night attacked 1280.00, which is vulnerable to containing a false break from the recent range. Closing back under 1270.00  would signal momentum reversing down, targeting 1240.00 and potentially 1226.00. Otherwise, a second consecutive higher close Tuesday would confirm a bigger upleg underway.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap up was still within Wednesday’s range, whose breakout has been confirmed, but which has yet to resume the decline to fresh highs.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Narrow ranging continued Friday afternoon’s absorption of the morning’s volatile reaction to the Employment Situation report, holding the 133-02 pullback limit.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The break above 98.55 extended higher to 100.40 resistance. Holding 99.40 as support would allow the break to extend up to 102.00.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s break extended down to fresh lows Sunday night that extended lower intraday. Not immediately rejecting the break would next target 4.35-4.40.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Friday’s Employment Situation report promoted more of the same recent trending. Extending any further through Monday’s close would be likely to extend further through the week.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s reaction to the Employment Situation report retested recent lows without recovering. Probing lower Monday is likely, and would signal a downleg underway if not recovered into the close.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The knee-jerk reaction down to 1.3550 after Friday’s Employment Situation report was recovered back into and through 1.3580-1.3600 resistance, probing fresh intraday highs. Closing higher Monday, regardless of the intraday action, would signal a bigger upleg underway.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing of 1270.00 before Friday’s Employment Situation report was reversed down under 1260.00 in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report. Its range still didn’t break lower, and the balance of the session backed-and-filled up to 1266.00 resistance.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s narrow ranging didn’t help to confirm whether Wednesday’s recovery above 19.70 would gain traction.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The knee-jerk reaction up on Friday’s Employment Situation report was unable to hold above 133-18. Any higher, confirmed above 133-30, would put into play a retest of last week’s highs, so long as pullbacks then held any test of 133-02 as support.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Another retest of the rally’s 98.55 target Friday was more productive than the prior two, extending to close at fresh highs. A second consecutive higher close would next target 100.40 and 102.00. Otherwise, back under 97.00 would signal the trend reversing down.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
An early test of the 4.77 lower-end of the pullback limit was recovered back above 4.95, but only momentarily before retracing almost all the way back down to 4.77. Any lower early Monday would put into play lower lows, and prevent a buy signal from triggering back above 4.95.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold has been bubbling early, only to be rejected later. This is while the long-bond has protracted its pullback. All leading up to Friday’s Employment Situation report.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
BOE and ECB announcements triggered a spike back down to Tuesday morning’s brief low. That must not be exceeded to maintain potential for launching a recovery and new rally leg.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
A surge followed Thursday’s BOE and ECB unchanged policy decisions. The 1.3580-1.3600 bounce limit was tested. That’s the peak of a corrective bounce that would begin without extending back into prior highs.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight rallying was retraced through Thursday to attack Wednesday’s low — which, itself, had only attacked Tuesday’s low. Both sessions rejected early optimism, and their lows stopped optimistically short of forming a bottom. Absent a close above 1266.00, the pattern remains vulnerable to reversing back to 1240.00, and lower to 1226.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sideways ranging Thursday did not help to confirm Wednesday’s break higher. Pullbacks must hold 19.70 to avoid reversing the trend back down.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The pullback extended even deeper Thursday to 132-28 ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. The pessimism makes an initially positive knee-jerk reaction easier, if not likelier. But a retest of the recent highs around 134-24/134-30 is still likelier to hold if tested.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh highs Thursday finally retested the 98.55 target, which sent price back down to Wednesday’s 97.40 close. The filled gap neutralizes its attraction below, so closing any lower would be likely to trend down. Similarly, having neutralized the attraction above, probing any higher would be likely to extend.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Despite rallying back up to 5.40 overnight, Thursday’s drop back under 5.20 extended down to the 4.90-4.95 pullback limit that needed a retest. Closing under 4.85 would now signal a new downleg underway, confirmed under 4.77. There is otherwise potential to form a new buy signal.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold and Natural Gas each tried one more time to rally, and each once again failed. There’s no “third time’s a charm” in charting, but there might be in this case, since the reversals can’t tolerate another pullback.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Flat-to-lower ranging was all that remained of Wednesday’s early weakness, which was retraced back to unchanged. The setup doesn’t allow much time for further delaying the rally’s resumption.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Flat-to-higher ranging gained no traction for its efforts Wednesday, which was retraced back to unchanged. The setup doesn’t allow much time for further delaying the rally’s resumption.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s surge to fresh high at 1274.50 was reversed back down to Tuesday’s highs under 1252.00, stopping optimistically short of actually filling the gap back to Tuesday’s close. Back above 1266.00 at this stage would be bullish, but 1240.00 otherwise is in-play, with its break targeting 1226.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Wednesday through Monday’s high to 20.33 was maintained to close above 19.70, and a second consecutive higher close would confirm that sellers have been absorbed.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite gapping up Wednesday from Tuesday’s pullback, the open was quickly rejected by a reversal that probed back under Tuesday’s 134-00 low to test 133-12, thoroughly testing the 133-27 pullback limit intraday. Holding it through the close or not doesn’t change potential for retesting Monday’s high, which is likely to to hold.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday night’s attack on retesting the 98.55 target stopped short of probing a fresh high before reversing back down into negative territory. But the balance of the session basically fluctuated around unchanged maintaining potential for probing prior highs.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Holding 5.40 resistance Tuesday didn’t prevent surging above it overnight to 5.73. But the surge’s origin did undermine its durability, as the morning was exited back in negative territory. And the afternoon extended down to 4.99. Until filling the gap back down to 4.90-4.95, no new buy signal would be credible.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold reacted down from another false start that mimicked a new upleg, only to be proved as premature. Natural Gas is also trying to resume its rally, facing a similar suspicion.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Firming Tuesday didn’t necessarily start the recovery, but early strength Wednesday would be likely to extend higher intraday.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Narrow ranging Tuesday didn’t reverse the drop whose two consecutive lower closes have created the requirement for at least a third.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s attack on 1270.00 was suspect, which Tuesday’s drop back under 1253.00 confirms. Probing intraday into 1246.00–1248.50 has held, but breaking lower would signal another test of 1240.00 in-play, likely to extend down to 1226.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s narrow ranging consolidated Monday’s surge. Early strength above 19.55 would signal the surge resuming, confirmed by closing above 19.70. Otherwise, the gap back down to Friday’s close still attracts price lower to it.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Two consecutive higher closes have required a third to print eventually. Tuesday’s pullback has room to test 133-27 before recovering to retest Monday’s high, probably only temporarily, perhaps in a brief reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Firming Tuesday to 97.75 doesn’t confirm that Monday’s test of support has held, but potential to retest 98.55 remains intact.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
No further testing of the 4.77-4.85 pullback limit was needed before Tuesday’s overnight rally that extended higher intraday to test 5.40. It’s still premature for resuming a reliable upleg, and the gap up now reflects excessive optimism. Extending almost any higher Wednesday would be likely at least to test 5.50 and then higher, but back under 5.23 would start to signal a retest of recent lows.

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