Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight How entrenched are market opinions? This was not the first weekend to be exited by extending the same price action that entered it. Of course, entrenched opinions are eventually vulnerable.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Fresh lows through the break pierced 80.00 while still targeting both 79.80 and a third lower close.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Fresh highs extended further toward the 1.3860 target, which remains in-play so long as pullbacks now hold 1.3700 as support.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s gap up extended to test 1330.00 before dipping into Tuesday morning, which recovered to 1324.00. Potential to 1342.00 and 1349.00 requires pullbacks now to hold 1306.00 support.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Sunday night to attack 23.00 allowed room to absorb a dip into Tuesday morning that was recovered from 21.30. Back under 21.65 would now suggest the rally’s momentum had lapsed, at least for a pullback to 20.70.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s hesitation at extending its gap up was compensated by gapping up again Tuesday morning and also extending higher intraday. The 133-16 target was probed by 4 ticks before reacting down into the close. Almost any initial fresh high Wednesday morning would be valid for extending to attack 134-00 and potentially fresh highs.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The pullback limit was rewarded for holding dips into the weekend by coming out of it probing fresh highs to and through the 102.00 target. A second consecutive higher close would signal a much bigger upleg underway. Otherwise, there is potential for reversing down hard from the 103.00 area.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The 5.36 extreme bounce limit had already held Friday, so gapping up through it Sunday night was clear to extend higher intraday. Unless rejected by gapping down Wednesday to form an Island, shallower pullbacks would be likely to recover and to extend the rally.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s break higher may be the rare watched pot that actually boils. But this stage of the pattern can’t tolerate deep pullbacks, since it originated from a base that was already rife with impatient buyers.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s fresh lows have room for extending down to 79.80 if not rejected by rally through Monday’s close.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s second consecutive higher close was still the first higher close above prior highs. But not rejecting it Monday by closing negative would target 1.3860.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday night’s rally to 1320.00 ranged sideways back down to 1315.00 throughout Friday. The rally’s momentum remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 1306.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapped up sharply Friday to 21.10 and extended higher intraday to attack 21.45, confirming Wednesday’s fresh high at 20.40 was too shallow to fully reward the prior several sessions of accumulation. Potential for extending to 21.85 depends upon holding 20.70-20.75 as support.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing higher Friday still settled back to 133-00 as support, whose resistance prevented confirming Thursday’s 132-12 buy signal. Lacking aggressiveness, the recovery is suspect, but could still rally again from 132-12.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Ranged Friday between 99.40 pullback limit and the rally’s 100.40 target. Still lacking two consecutive higher closes above 100.40 to confirm 102.00 is in-play.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extended higher Friday to test 5.36 resistance that would not disallow the rally from being only a correction, then reversed back down into negative terrirory testing 5.21. Momentum did not reverse down, but the potential that a corrective bounce is ending does remain alive.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight If this bounce is just another temporary detour by Natural Gas, then the next downleg’s sellers should be capable of trending down considerably. But even as a temporary detour, higher highs are possible first.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s gap down to fresh lows would be confirmed by a second consecutive lower close on Friday. Otherwise, an immediate bounce wouldn’t be credible for reversing momentum up already.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s premature break held 1.3580-1.3600 to make some sort of bounce likely for Thursday. Thursday gapped up above Tuesday’s highs and ranged around its 1.3680 upper-end. That’s not a buy signal, but a second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm a break higher is underway. Otherwise, reversing down immediately would be no more credible.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight attack on the 1285.00 pullback limit was recovered into Thursday’s open and extended to fresh highs above 1302.00. Back under 1298.00 and 1295.00 would now signal momentum reversing down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap down was recovered to fresh highs to confirm that Wednesday’s fulfillment of the rally’s minimum objective probably wouldn’t suffice to end the rally targeting 20.70.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s extension of the dip was rejected by gapping up sharply Thursday through the 132-12 buy signal. Extending higher was still overlapping the 133-00 confirmation too closely to be confident that momentum had reversed up, but the pattern does tend to extend aggressively if valid.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
An overnight dip to 99.40 was recovered enough intraday to hold the pullback limit’s test, and to keep alive the 102.00 target.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The 4.85 bounce limit was exceeded by Thursday’s gap up to 4.92 that extended intraday to test 5.22. Back under 4.95 would reverse the trend back down. Otherwise, the bounce can extend to 5.28 or 5.36 before targeting new highs.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Did Natural Gas just miss the opportunity to resume its rally? A corrective bounce target was tested after Tuesday’s close, overnight and through Wednesday. But held. There is no bearish reason to further delay extending down.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s gap up fulfilled Tuesday’s “ineffectual pessimism” while also probing above Monday’s range. Closing almost any higher Thursday would signal a bigger rally leg already underway.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Fulfilling upside objectives with an “ineffectually optimistic” session Tuesday made the recent rally vulnerable to peaking. In fact, it plunged back down under 1.3580 overnight. That was a little premature to already reverse the trend down, so Wednesday’s session ranged sideways back up to 1.3600 resistance. Any initial weakness Thursday would be likely to resume the decline.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight dip to 1285.00 support held and reacted up to fresh highs testing 1296.50 resistance. The pattern’s minimum requirement for a third higher close is now fulfilled. The rally can extend so long as 1285.00 doesn’t break lower, which would target 1270.00 and potentially fresh lows.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s fresh highs were only slightly above the recent ranging, but that was enough to fulfill the outstanding minimum requirement for at least a third higher close. Being so shallow after so much consolidation, the potential to 20.70 remains alive.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 133-00 buy signal didn’t trigger before price fell further Wednesday, testing 132-00. Back above 132-12 would be credible for extending through 133-00 to at least 133-16. But pattern this is not attractive to accumulate weakness.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s gap up through the 100.40 target peaked and began reversing back down intraday before attacking the next higher 102.00 target, which remains in-play so long as 100.00 now holds as support.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s bounce extended overnight to test 5.02, but the decline’s momentum relies only on not recovering 4.85 through the close, in order to maintain the 4.35-4.40 target.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Tuesday’s price action mostly only extended existing trends among coverage. But all shows signs of their sponsorship weakening, making them vulnerable to reversing altogether Wednesday.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Fresh lows Tuesday ultimately only ranged choppily round prior lows, never extending down despite gapping down and spending the entire session in negative territory. Almost any initial strength Wednesday would be credible for extending sharply higher intraday.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s gap up was modest, but it extended. At least, it extended temporarily before being retraced to almost unchanged. The extension repeated into the noon hour, and dipped again — but always in positive territory. The “ineffectual optimism” probed the prior high as was likely. Not extending higher immediately Wednesday would very likely have formed a top.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh highs Tuesday tested 1295.00. The second consecutive higher close now requires there to be a third, albeit not necessarily immediately. A corrective dip to as low as 1270.00 still wouldn’t reverse momentum down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firm ranging Tuesday was nevertheless contained within last Wednesday’s range, and largely within Monday’s range, too. The coiled up buying pressure can’t tolerate dipping first to fresh lows.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s fresh low fulfilled a corrective pattern whose recovery would be triggered back above 133-00. Its minimum objective would be 133-16, but extending any higher would target fresh highs.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s test of the 100.40 target wasn’t rejected back under the 99.40 pullback limit, and neither did the rally extend through it. Price action continued ranging there narrowly, with potential for extending up to 102.00 so long as 99.40 held as support.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Reminiscent of last month’s break from its massive Head & Shoulders pattern, Monday’s fresh low was retraced to test what is now 4.77 resistance Tuesday. But this pattern hasn’t yet reversed back up. No second consecutive new low close does undermine the drop’s momentum, but potential down to 4.35-4.40 remains intact so long as 4.85 isn’t recovered.

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