Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Silver has lagged behind while Gold ekes out higher and higher highs. Now Gold has fulfilled this upleg’s minimum objective, and held it as resistance through the Tuesday’s close. The rally had better resume without delay if it intends to resume, at all.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s gap down rejected a bounce into positive territory. The 79.80 target below remains in-play, but probably without any reliability in the path there.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s retest of last week’s highs up to 1.3765 didn’t extend higher, and still should probe fresh highs before any downleg would be credible for extending back to prior lows.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness was absorbed and a probe of fresh highs tested the 1342.00 target by almost $2. Potential to 1349.00 requires that pullbacks now hold 1337.00 as support.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap down didn’t extend, and held the rally’s 21.70 pullback limit. Recovering Monday’s high and closing above 22.12 would be the earliest signal the rally may be extending instead of topping.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The bounce extended back to last week’s high, still without yet filling the gap back to the low’s 132-08 close. Prior highs should be retested above 135-00, too. Extending above 133-24 would start to make that retest likelier, first.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Still nothing compelling about the 103.00 area. Its reaction down to 101.00 Tuesday is too shallow to make long-entry compelling when the minimum upside objective may be only one more higher close. And short-entry isn’t compelling with only Monday’s close trying to fulfill that objective.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s stunning reversal extended down initially overnight Monday. Tuesday’s fresh low at 4.53 probed the downside objective by a nickel, and was recovered up to 4.77 which had been the decline’s first objective. The 4.85 sell signal may be tested, too. There is no active signal at this time.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas greeted the week duplicating last week’s entry. But similar setups tend not to resolve the same, so gapping up sharply from a distributive pattern was rejected.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s flat-to-lower ranging was too shallow for its sellers to gain traction for the effort. But the lower close does confirm the test of 79.80 is in-play.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Sunday night’s retest of last week’s high was rejected to gap down at Monday’s open. That’s not so bearish as to prevent an intraday test of the ~1.3775  highs or probing higher intraday to 1.3815.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s internal strength was bullish, which was confirmed by gapping up to fresh highs Monday and extending higher through Monday morning. The morning’s rally came to within $3 of the 1342.00 target, where the balance of the session ranged narrowly.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s “ineffectual pessimism” was resolved by gapping up to fresh highs Monday and extending higher through Monday morning. Extending higher through the morning and closing at fresh highs keeps alive the rally’s momentum.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s bounce initially extended a little Monday morning, but was reversed down to test 132-22 support. The gap back to 132-08 is still a likely objective before bounces are credible for extending higher, if not also a fresh low intraday under 132-00.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s bounce back up to the 103.00 area may fulfill the pattern’s minimum requirement for at least one more fresh high close. But its timing and interim pullback doesn’t make the fresh high any likelier to extend. I still don’t have a compelling setup on this chart.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s gap up was already being retraced before the Market Tour’s reminder of last week’s distributive pattern. The reversal extended down intraday to fulfill the minimum pullback limit at basis Apr (5.55 basis Mar). The corrective dip has room down to 4.58-4.62, which was attacked Monday afternoon.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight If not for Gold’s prior two sessions of artificial selling pressure — the “ineffectual pessimism” of barely trading flat-to-lower — its blip-up into the weekend might suggest some higher degree of nervousness out there.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s test of 80.45 resistance did hold, although Friday’s reaction was more choppy ranging than reversing back down. But closing lower Monday would confirm the 79.80 target’s test is in-play.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The pullback’s extra room down to 1.3700 that was tested Thursday did produce a recovery, at least back to the week’s highs. A fresh high remains likely before the bigger picture’s decline were to resume.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Flat-to-lower ranging after Wednesday’s shallow reaction to FOMC Minutes had suggested the rally wasn’t finished. That’s also suggested by Friday’s surge to fresh highs, next targeting 1342.00 and 1349.00 so long as 1318.50 now holds as support.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Shallow ranging has so far held the 21.65 sell signal. Now the upper-end of the range is being attacked. Pessimistically — barely filling a gap, and narrowly avoiding prior high — so, fresh highs remain likely, if not also resuming the rally.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s firming didn’t originate from filling the nearby gap below at 132-08, which continues to prevent there being a buy signal.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Friday’s weakness wasn’t substantial, and it wasn’t inappropriate for the pattern despite still leaving outstanding at least one more higher close for the rally. The attack on 101.00 should help to launch that.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Narrow ranging Friday helps to confirm the rally’s momentum is waning, if not lapsed entirely. But a pullback targeting 5.55 isn’t yet signaled.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Has Natty Gas’s blow-out blown itself out? Fluctuating widely between two relevant levels during a brief window — after a sizable brief rally — is fomenting the likelihood for a corrective dip.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Extending its bounce Thursday tested 80.45 resistance that must hold to launch a new downleg targeting 79.80.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Room for extending the dip down to 1.3700 was tested and retested Thursday morning, now needing no further delay to resume the prior decline if a retest of the highs can be avoided.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite extending down overnight from Wednesday’s relatively muted reaction to the FOMC Minutes, Thursday’s session only ranged narrowly around its shallower opening gap down. The “ineffectual pessimism” makes any initial strength Friday likely to extend higher intraday.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down only slightly Thursday and ranging narrowly sideways held 21.65 support, whose break would suggest a deeper pullback underway targeting 20.70.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The reaction down from attacking 134-oo extended Thursday back to 132-12, which had triggered the original buy signal. Th proximity to a gap outstanding below at 132-08 makes any recovery premature if not yet filling the gap to neutralize its attraction below.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Still ranging around 103.00 as the front-month rolls from Mar to Apr. Two consecutive higher closes already confirmed a third eventual higher close outstanding, but resistance at 103.00 suggests a a dip back toward 101.00 may preceded fresh highs.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Surging overnight to a fresh high at 6.40 from 5.89 was retraced to 5.89 intraday. That also produced a bounce, albeit to 6.30. Maintaining the rally’s momentum and avoiding a corrective dip to 5.55 requires holding 6.03-6.06 as support.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight FOMC Minutes is usually reliable for triggering a reaction. It’s interesting that Wednesday’s reactions were not uniform. Gold seemed not to notice, barely slipping any further after the intraday ranging, while bonds fell sharply.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s knee-jerk spike down barely pierced Tuesday’s low under 80.00, which was still too far above the decline’s 79.80 target to be considered met. But a reaction up did interrupt the decline’s momentum.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Retesting Tuesday’s ~1.3775 high reacted back down Wednesday to test 1.3725, but otherwise unshaken by the day’s news.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
A third consecutive session Wednesday of ranging narrowly intraday around 1318.00 has suggested the rally needs a dip to test the 1306.00 pullback limit, stretching the rubber band back to launch another upleg. Curiously, the FOMC Minutes release didn’t effect Gold by nearly the degree that it affected bonds.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Continued narrow ranging at 21.85 further undermines the rally’s momentum, and suggests that the rally needs a pullback to refuel buyers, whether to 21.65 or to 20.70.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s initial strength was itself an attack on 134-00, which attracted no reinforcements. The FOMC Minutes reaction slide sharply down to 132-28, leaving no signal in-play.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Overnight highs testing the 103.00 area’s resistance was still being tested through it through Wednesday afternoon. Back under 101.15 would start to signal momentum reversing down, potentially reversing down hard.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending sharply higher overnight tested significant resistance at 5.95, requiring pullbacks to hold 5.89 for the pattern to next target 6.70. Sharply higher highs into the session tested 6.21 resistance that now requires pullbacks to hold 6.03.

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