Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Did Natural Gas just form a bottom? Neutralized a gap below, recovered a gap up, closed above resistance. Even if confirmed, beware the weather forecast…

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Gapping down Tuesday was recovered to 80.20 resistance before consolidating narrowly into the close. A second consecutive higher close would signal a much bigger rally leg underway.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s opening bounce peaked short of even attacking Friday’s Island before reversing back down to Monday’s low. Closing any lower Wednesday would signal momentum was reversing down already. There is otherwise still potential to retest Friday’s high.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s test of the 1349.00 target had developed too quickly to be durable. While Tuesday’s reaction down to 1331.00 is similarly difficult to extend without correction. But Tuesday’s reaction down does get the benefit of the doubt, that any bounce is a temporary correction before signaling a bigger downleg underway.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s bounce to 21.75 resistance reacted down further Tuesday, targeting 20.70.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down from Monday’s probe of prior highs has formed an Island Reversal pattern. Rather than bounce back to Monday’s open from testing 133-04 support, the session extended down further to 132-16. Back above 133-04  would trigger at least a retest of Monday’s 133-28 high.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s gap down to 104.00 extended lower to attack 102.90 “lower prior highs” as support. A second consecutive lower close would signal a new downleg is underway. There is otherwise no requirement to extend the rally any higher.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday from having filled the gap below on Monday did not prevent a post-open dip attacking Monday’s low. But the dip was recovered back to the open’s high, suggesting a bottom is in and a new upleg should be obvious by Wednesday’s close.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Monday’s sharply higher highs delivered the consequences to Gold’s impatient reaction down from last week’s target. If the action was exacerbated by a temporary fixation on geopolitical developments, then the next reaction down probably won’t be temporary.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Perhaps encouraged by the weekend’s geopolitical developments, the week began by reacting up sharply from Friday’s test of its 78.20 target. A second consecutive higher close would confirm a bottom is forming.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping down Monday formed an Island of Friday’s sideways ranging at new highs. Bouncing sooner rather than later to fill the gap back to Monday’s 1.3815 opening print would be likelier to hold resistance and to launch a new downleg.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s rally tested the outstanding 1349.00 target whose test became likely when last week’s reaction down from 1342.00 was so impatient. Higher highs Monday up to 1355.00 were still retraced to 1349.00 as support before the close. Back under 1342.00 would trigger a new downleg. Otherwise, a second consecutive higher close Tuesday would put into play much, much higher targets.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s bounce pierced Thursday’s high, which had stopped pessimistically short of 21.75 where a more reliable decline could resume to 20.70.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sharply higher highs overnight fulfilled the required retest of February’s highs. The 133-02 pullback limit’s failure would signal the test had held, putting into play a test of the interim low at 131-00.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Sunday’s night’s surge into Monday tested 105.00. A dip back down to 102.90 lower prior highs” could form the basis for a more substantial rally. In any case, it must be broken before considering a short.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Initially extending to fresh highs Monday didn’t prevent a post-open downdraft that prevented a second consecutive higher close or a recovery above 4.66 to reverse momentum up. There is no active signal otherwise.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Dollar’s drop Friday fulfilled its long outstanding objective. That might be compelling for long-entry, if not for being new lows into the weekend. Timing isn’t everything, but it’s something.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The 79.80  target was finally met when Friday’s open gapped down. The balance of the session ranged there. Gapping up above 80.05 would form an Island reversal, but a second consecutive close would be needed to confirm the trend is extending.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Prior highs were probed as expected up to 1.3805-1.3815. Despite already gapping up, a consolidation there eventually started trending higher into the weekend. A second consecutive higher close Monday would indicate the topping was not forming.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
1328.00‘s pullback limit did not hold, as Wednesday’s 1322.50 low was retested. Not recovering 1328.00 immediately Monday would target 1306.00. Recovering would still target the gap back to 1342.00 up to 1349.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s narrow ranging doesn’t confirm that Thursday’s shallow bounce was the extent of corrective bouncing. But back under Wednesday’s 21.20 low would signal the decline extending down to 20.75.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s reaction down stopped short of touching the 133-24 pullbck limit where bouncing back above 134-00 would have been a buy signal. Its reaction up was more substantial, again missing an attracting long-entry setup.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Firming back up to 103.00 and reacting down to unchanged nearer 102.00 while Russia invades the Crimea further underscores the lack of compelling setups in this pattern — even prior Friday.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s early strength extended higher intraday, filling a recent gap back to 4.66 whose recovery through the close would be very bullish. Lacking that Friday, closing above it Monday would still be credible for reversing momentum up.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s reaction down Wednesday from meeting the rally’s target Tuesday was expected not to confirm a reversal underway. In fact, the character of Thursday’s non-confirmation was itself informative. So, confirmation can be important on many levels.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s dip back to 80.25 avoided confirming Wednesday’s bounce as gaining traction, leaving the door open to resuming the drop to fresh lows at 79.20.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Despite gapping down, Thursday reversed back up into positive territory to 1.3725, and did not confirm Wednesday’s break. Keeping in-line with expectations would now also extend higher to probe last week’s highs. Retracing Thursday’s recovery would be bearish, since Thursday’s bounce retraced 61.8% of the drop from last week’s highs.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s premature overly-aggressive drop avoided extending down Thursday, while barely bouncing. The gap back to Tuesday’s 1342.00 target is still likely to be filled — sooner rather than later so long as 1328.00 holds as support — if not also retested up to 1349.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Subdued ranging Thursday maintained potential for a corrective bounce to precede a deeper pullback targeting 20.70.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s gap up extended slightly higher but mostly ranged sideways, just under 134-26/134-30 prior highs that have always required a retest. Having avoided filling the low’s outstanding gap before recovering does suggest the high’s retest will hold and form a more durable top.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Still ranging narrowly without offering any compelling setups.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s ranging in negative territory around 4.50 could suffice as a bottom, but a bounce has room up to 4.62-4.67 before signaling a new upleg is underway.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s first reaction to meeting resistance was abrupt. Productive, but abrupt. Impatient sponsorship tends to be weak-handed, so perhaps at least a knee-jerk bullish reaction to Yellen’s testimony is in store.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Rallying to a fresh high at 80.55 Wednesday undermines the attraction to fresh lows at 79.80. A second consecutive higher close Thursday would signal momentum had reversed up already.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s retest of prior highs was reversed to fresh lows for the week, despite not yet probing those prior highs. Extending under 1.3640 Thursday would neutralize any attraction back to the highs, which otherwise should still be tested.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fulfilling the rally’s 1342.00 target Tuesday already reacted down sharply Wednesday. So suddenly and so sharply, after gapping open, that sellers seem a little too impatient not to be corrected by a bounce Thursday.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap down extended sharply through 21.70, putting into play at least a test of 20.70 before any rally can be credible.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending the bounce Wednesday through 133-24 makes a retest of prior highs increasingly likely before filling the outstanding gap back to the lows. A dip into negative territory Thursday that recovers to close positive might be compelling for long-entry, but there is otherwise no active signal.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Recovering back to the 102.80 area Wednesday is still capable of probing fresh highs above 103.00, but currently there is still no compelling entry parameter either way.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The decline resumed overnight and extended to fresh lows. The second consecutive lower close now requires a third, so no buy signal will be considered.

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