Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold and Natural Gas offered examples of extreme sentiment being reflected by an early move that reverses substantially intraday.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Bouncing slightly at Monday’s open was quickly retraced to range narrowly around Friday’s close, leaving no active signal.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s shallow gap down was recovered to range unchanged through much of the session. Positive territory wasn’t recovered, as no new signal was triggered.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s gap up to test fresh highs at 1280.00 was retraced before Monday’s open, and then rejected further — to 1257.00 intraday and to probe under 1252.00 post-close. The second consecutive close under 1270.00 after having tested it does suggest at least this leg of the rally has peaked.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Sunday night to 19.95 then extended higher, but reversed down before the open. The 19.70 pullback limit was being probed by nearly a dime through the close, and must be recovered without delay Tuesday to resume the rally.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sunday night’s gap up to a fresh high testing 133-08 was about a quarter-point too shallow to fulfill a false break of Friday’s Symmetrical Triangle. Price reversed down nonetheless, testing the 132-12 pullback limit that keeps alive upside potential.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
A dip to lower lows at 95.20 ignored an easy opportunity for higher highs to neutralize the nearby attraction up to 98.85. Back above 96.25 would signal 98.85 is in-play. Closing under 95.05 first would start to suggest the pattern had peaked already.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s gap up to 5.44 was retraced before Monday’s open and probed well into negative territory at 4.83. The 4.97 target’s second consecutive test failed to close above the first session’s high, suggesting that at least this leg has peaked.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil has been an anomaly recently. Ticking higher relentlessly finally found a corrective dip or hesitation Friday, just as other markets were increasing their volatility. Is that turbulence a sign of approaching its target?

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s drop probed lower overnight, but held 80.50 support intraday Friday. That doesn’t prevent extending down further, especially since 80.50‘s test hasn’t reacted up. But not extending down early Monday would be likely to start firming back up to Wednesday’s 81.30 close.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday highs Thursday night were retraced before Friday’s open, but not reversed much back into Thursday’s range. The overnight highs may yet be retested, although that is not required. But any delay in their retest would more likely start dropping back down to Wednesday’s 1.3540 close.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s rally extended sharply higher overnight to fulfill its 1270.00 target up to 1273.20. Friday’s intraday action also tested 1270.00 before retracing down to 1260.00. The rally’s momentum remains intact so long as 1259.00 holds as support.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s gap up to 20.20 ranged there narrowly through mid-morning before reversing down sharply to plunge through the 19.95 pullback limit to attack 19.70 support. Back above 19.95 without delay Monday would be credible for extending higher intraday, but there is otherwise no active buy signal.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s rally extended higher overnight to touch 133-05. Friday’s open gapped up and the entire session was spent in positive territory, but the overnight high was never retested. The resulting Symmetrical Triangle has upside resistance at 133-16 whose test would be vulnerable to reversing down sharply. Pullbacks meanwhile have room down to 132-12.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Friday’s dip to 96.25 consolidated through the afternoon, forming a pattern that can easily break higher to fulfill the 98.85 target.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s pre-open 4.94 high had stopped pessimistically short of touching the 4.97 target. It was probed Friday night on the way to trending sharply higher intraday, testing 5.25. That represents the high of fulfilling the 4.97 target, so any higher close would signal the rally was extending much higher. Otherwise, closing back under 4.97 would at least signal a corrective phase underway.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Extreme volatility Thursday may be responsible for the mother of all head fakes among currencies. That would suggest Gold will hold its nearby target, assuming it extends just a little further to get there. Interestingly, the volatility didn’t upset Crude Oil’s slow-but-steady upward trajectory — perhaps there’s some stored up selling pressure yet to be released.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Gapping down Thursday was not the follow-through a rally needed. As if in recognition of this shortcoming, the balance of the session trended down considerably. Price action through Wednesday was not distributive, so the gap back to its close is likely to be filled.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Reacting down Wednesday from 1.3580 resistance didn’t prevent gapping up through it Thursday. There was no accumulation prior to the surge, so a retest of 1.3580 is likely before an uptrend could gain traction.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s open gapped up to 1248.50 and then extend sharply higher to retest Sunday night’s 1262.00 high up to 1267.00. Closing back under 1262.00 would signal that at least a corrective dip down to 1246.00 was underway. Otherwise, 1270.00 remains in-play.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up and extending higher intraday peaked upon filling its gap back to Friday’s 20.30 close, and then reversed down sharply. The recovery’s momentum remains intact so long as 19.95 holds as support.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s dip left no unfinished business above, making any initial strength that much likelier to trend higher intraday. Sunday night’s 131-20 high was probed by a new highs up to 132-20. Closing back under 132-12 suggests that at least a corrective dip back down to 131-20 or lower is likely.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh highs Thursday extended the bounce to attack 98.00, now being likely also to test 98.55. If tested, the reaction there will be key to identifying the next leg’s direction and objective.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s gap up was actually reacting down from a pre-open attack on 4.97. Ultimately, what was the next higher target in-play at 4.77 failed to support the close. Thursday’s 4.88 opening print should be retested at some point, but it must be recovered through the close to extend the rally. Meanwhile, recent cold weather is forecast to break again into the weekend.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The reactions from Sunday night’s extremes persisted through Wednesday. Following-through an extra session suggests that their levels should be considered predictive, and that ever breaking them would trigger a very durable reversal in the opposite direction.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s open blipped down before recovering into the afternoon, touching two-week old highs. Piercing them with almost any upside follow-through Thursday should be able to extend higher throughout the day.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Initial firming Wednesday reacted down from touching 1.3580 resistance to keep alive the potential for resuming the decline.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The drop underway from Sunday night through Tuesday morning didn’t resume Wednesday morning, and ultimately avoided a lower close that would resume the decline. But a close back above 1246.00 and 1248.50 was also avoided, so the rally hasn’t yet resumed.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow ranging Wednesday held above 19.70 to avoid gaining downside traction, but did not reject Tuesday’s test to try resuming the rally.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Wednesday left no unfinished business above at Sunday night’s highs to prevent trending down. And a post-open bounce filled the gap at Tuesday’s close to neutralize its attraction. Trending down without first retesting Sunday night’s highs would not be optimal, but still credible if there is a second consecutive lower close Thursday.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Despite extending higher through Wednesday’s open to test 96.90, the bounce pattern still offers no long-entry signal to participate. Closing back under 94.75 would start to signal momentum reversing down.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Just rallying into Tuesday’s open above 4.34 after gapping down Sunday night to 4.20 already indicated the Head & Shoulders downleg wouldn’t resume. It also created the vulnerability to extending higher, which Wednesday’s open exploited by gapping up above the bounce’s 4.48 highs at 4.60 and extending higher intraday to test 4.70. Now 4.77 and potentially 4.97 are in-play.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Several fresh extremes Sunday night were rejected into Tuesday’s open — Precious Metals and Natural Gas. While Crude Oil held up well, it also probed a fresh extreme. None of the patterns created a buy signal.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s gap up was quickly retraced back into negative territory. The reversal never extended nor gained traction. Another fresh high in this sequence Wednesday would be credible for extending higher throughout the day.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s bounce avoided confirming Friday’s break lower. It also avoided recovering 1.3580 resistance, keeping alive potential for resuming or at least extending the decline Wednesday.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite extending to a fresh high at 1262.00 at Sunday night’s open, price slid into Tuesday’s open back down toward last week’s lows at 1235.00. Recovering 1246.00 and 1248.50 would still resume the rally, but now closing under 1235.00 would seal a top and reverse momentum down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s opening gap down held its test of 19.70 to maintain the potential for recovering to resume the rally, although that should be obvious Wednesday.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh highs overnight up to 131-20 were never retested intraday Tuesday as the session ranged narrowly around being unchanged. No further high is required, but a retest of the overnight high is likely before any durable downleg could begin.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
An overnight dip to the 93.85 sell signal (basis Mar, 93.65 basis Feb) recovered to retest fresh highs at 95.45. Back under 93.85 would still be credible for launching a retest of the lows.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Despite gapping down Sunday night to 3.20, a recovery through Tuesday’s open attacked last week’s bounce highs up to 3.45. That would be quite a feat to reject yet another bounce of such height. Back under 3.34 would still suggest that sellers are trying to retake control, but now a bigger bounce has become likely.

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