Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s surge suggests that a bottom is forming. That, or buyers have gotten ahead of themselves. Way ahead of themselves. The bottom left nothing outstanding, so confirming the setup Thursday would make the pattern very bullish.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Early strength nearly filled the gap back to Monday’s close before retracing back to Tuesday’s close. Like Tuesday’s break lower, still being within the range makes the price action as informative as noise.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s gap down filled the gap back to Monday’s close before recovering to Tuesday’s close. There is no predictive information from the day.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s tepid confirmation of Monday’s break at least led to lower lows overnight down to 1210.80. So did Tuesday’s second consecutive close under 1230.50. But those factors didn’t prevent recovering to unchanged Wednesday, or then extending higher to 1251.50. A test of 1270.00 is in-play so long as pullbacks now hold 1245.50. Closing back under 1240.00 would target fresh lows.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows overnight touched the 18.90 target before reversing $1 intraday, into positive territory and then some. The recovery’s momentum remains intact so long as 18.90 now holds as support.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s bounce was premature for having developed before meeting the decline’s 129-16 target, which was fulfilled by Wednesday’s gap down before extending back to the 128-29 prior lows. A bottom signal is premature, but at this point would require closing back above 129-16.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The 97.15 target was tested Tuesday night. A pullback into the morning held above Tuesday’s highs and extended to fresh highs attacking 97.60. Now holding 96.50 would target 98.35 and potentially 100.65.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still ranging under 4.00 instead of extending through it toward the fresh 4.25 target, and the delay is undermining confidence in extending to the target.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s surge extended the bottoming effort that began with last week’s brief probe under prior lows. The question now is whether the bottoming effort has ended, since the consolidation range’s upper-end is being challenged after expending so much energy so quickly.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s gap up wasn’t confirmed Tuesday. More so, Tuesday’s open gapped back down to Friday’s close under 80.70, and trended down intraday to attack Friday’s 80.50 low. Back above 80.80 would signal another recovery attempt underway, but there is otherwise no active signal.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s gap down wasn’t confirmed Tuesday. More so, Tuesday’s open gapped back up to Friday’s close above 1.3580, and trended up intraday to touch 1.3615 resistance. Back under 1.3545 would signal another reversal attempt underway, but there is otherwise no active signal.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows Monday night and Tuesday held two tests of July’s lowest unfilled gap at 1217.50. But a second consecutive lower close, which was also under 1230.50 again, confirmed a bigger break underway. One more fresh low close might suffice. But an immediate recovery attempt would be premature and doomed to failure.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s fresh low attacked the 18.90 target, creating a bounce limit at 19.10, whose recovery would signal the drop was ending.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s gap up didn’t extend higher, leaving outstanding the decline’s minimum target at 129-16, with potential to 128-10.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Any initial strength Tuesday was likely to extend sharply higher intraday, which Tuesday’s early surge through 94.15 to 96.19 fulfilled. Closing above 95.00 puts into play a test of 97.15.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Potential for extending up to 4.25 became more suspicious Tuesday when a fresh high above 4.00 reacted back down into negative territory. But a close under 3.88 is still needed to signal momentum reversing down.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Immediately rejecting last Wednesday’s plunge hasn’t yet been converted into a bottom for Crude Oil. This is an interesting pattern to monitor not only for the consolidation’s resolution, but also for the implications its resolution presumably would have on other markets.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s gap up began the more substantial reversal up that has been forming. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday above 81.00 would confirm, next targeting 81.60 and 81.90.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping down Monday from last week’s resistance test suggests a new downleg is forming. Confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Tuesday, preferably under 1.3495, would next target 1.3333.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The outstanding retest of 1228.10 was fulfilled Monday morning, while Friday’s rally to 1254.50 was being rejected by fresh lows down to 1225.00. Closing back under 1230.50 two consecutive sessions would mean the recent ranging was resolving down, and not even launching a corrective bounce [LEVELS EDITED FOR EARLY TYPOS].

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap down to last week’s 19.70 lows extended down intraday to 19.26. Not immediately rejecting Monday’s drop Tuesday would essentially confirm a the consolidation is resolving down, next targeting 18.90.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Third time was a charm Monday as the bounce up to resistance resolved down to within 4 ticks of fresh lows targeting 129-16. Closing any lower — which is increasingly likely, considering the struggle not to — would next target 128-10.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Friday’s gap up wasn’t extended higher Monday, but the day was largely spent testing Friday’s 94.00 area highs. Closing above 94.60 would signal momentum is reversing up, targeting 97.15. Pullbacks must meanwhile hold 93.00 as support.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s probe of fresh highs was not rejected Monday, helping to confirm the rally is next targeting 4.25. The confirmation wasn’t optimal, in that the trend didn’t extend higher, so back under 3.88 and 3.82 could still launch a deeper retracement instead.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Low participation on Friday makes its price action suspicious. So, any signal that was triggered must stand the confirmation of not being rejected Monday.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s gap down once again held 80.45 support to avoid extending down, before retracing back to unchanged. It was essentially “ineffectual pessimism” that keeps the door open to reversing up more substantially.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping up Friday held 1.3635 resistance before reversing back down. No upside traction was gained for the early effort, but no reversal down was yet signaled.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing up to 1252.00 from probing under 1240.00-1245.50 did not reverse the trend up. A retest of 1228.10 remains outstanding, closing no lower than 1230.50. But that can’t prevent a bigger corrective bounce first either to 1260.00 or to 1270.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s retest of recent highs did not gain traction, despite previously having neutralized the gap back to its new low opening gap. Being unable to exploit its own potentially bullish setup suggests it is waiting for Gold to finish bottoming.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s duplication of Wednesday’s tests of support also failed to extend down through the close. They also were not reversed up, leaving the setup intact and still capable of triggering.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Gapping up above prior lows and extending higher Friday stopped short of signaling that momentum had reversed up. But extending almost any initial strength Monday would be credible for extending higher intraday. Still, closing above 94.30 and 94.60 would be increasingly bullish.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s higher high would be credible for putting into play 4.25 so long as Monday doesn’t immediately reject the signal by closing back under 3.88 or 3.82.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s break lower Wednesday held a retest of its prior low, but that won’t be bullish if it were to extend down without delay. Its immediate rejection would suggest a much bigger bottom had formed than was being considered.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Follow-through by the current Symmetrical Triangle pattern extended down to nearly test the 80.45 support before reversing up sharply to test 80.80 resistance. Back above 80.85 would signal the drop had ended, and that momentum was reversing up to launch a new rally leg.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s false breakout above the recently formed Ascending Triangle gapped up through 1.3580 but stopped short of touching 1.3635 before reversing back down under 1.3580. Closing back under 1.3520 would signal a new downleg underway.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Attacking the recent 1258.00 highs overnight was already reversing down into Wednesday’s open, which extended down intraday into negative territory to probe  1240.00-1245.50 as support down to 1237.00. Two consecutive closes beyond the range are required to indicate trending. Managing to fill the gap back to 1228.10 without closing under 1230.50 before confirming a breakout would help to form a bottom.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight strength wasn’t very strong, and it reversed Wednesday to retest Monday’s 19.65 gap down. There is no unfinished business below, but bottoming depends more on avoiding two consecutive lower closes.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
[ROLLING COVERAGE FORWARD TO MAR, discounted 1-16] Tuesday’s test of 130-30 (132-14 basis Dec) reacted down temporarily Wednesday under 130-22 (132-06 basis Dec) to signal momentum reversing down. The drop extended down to 130-06 but recovered 130-12 (131-28 basis Dec), whose break through the close would still target at least 129-16 (131-00 basis Dec).

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Having failed Tuesday to trigger the buy signal above 94.60, the pattern was vulnerable to Wednesday’s gap down extending to fresh lows intraday at 92.21, which is under the prior downleg’s 93.25 target. The session did only range around the prior downleg’s 92.87 low, potentially forming an Island, which would be bullish if rejected by gapping up back above 93.70.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The 3.88 resistance and its overnight tests were probed by fresh recovery highs Wednesday up to 3.91, but still being tested into the afternoon. A second consecutive higher close would confirm the rally’s momentum remains intact for its next higher objective at 4.25. Otherwise, closing under 3.82 would now signal the current upleg was at least being corrected.

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