Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s target was tested (Tuesday) and retested (Wednesday), without yet extending higher. And it’s probably not going to extend higher, not without a pullback first, not without rallying sharply Thursday morning.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s fresh low didn’t trend down, and only threatened to close lower. That’s not optimal fulfillment of the setup’s confirmed break, but might suffice for being an index.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Probing a fresh high Wednesday was not able to close decisively higher. But the potential to 1.3833 remains intact so long as pullbacks hold 1.3775.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s gap up failed to decisively recover 1260.00 resistance, and the lack of momentum was corrected by an overnight dip to 1252.00. Wednesday’s open challenged 1260.00 resistance again, but so far was unable to extend higher.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday did not extend Tuesday’s rally, although the session did probe a fresh high, suggesting that 20.75 remains in-play.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s bounce fulfilled 130-02 resistance. Wednesday’s gap down eventually extended down to threaten reversing the trend back down under 129-16.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s test of the 98.35 target did not extend higher Wednesday, dipping to 97.25, which still suggests the likelier resolution is down to consolidate before extending higher, instead of suddenly extending sharply higher.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday and Tuesday’s tests of the rally’s 4.25 target reacted down overnight to 4.17. There was room to dip further without sellers gaining traction, but Wednesday’s open was already recovering on the way to fresh highs testing 4.33. Closing back under 4.25 would now reverse momentum down.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold (and Silver) soared between Monday’s close and Tuesday’s open. Intraday action tried probing higher, but managed only to maintain the overnight rally. The action seems to confirm expectations that a bottom was forming, but that’s not yet assured — despite the day’s huge gains — without a second consecutive higher close Wednesday.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Fresh lows Tuesday confirmed Monday’s breakout, now requiring there to be another lower close in this pattern. An immediate bounce would be likely to resolve down.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s fresh high went beyond the setup’s minimum requirement that was fulfilled Monday, probing above the 1.3775 objective, threatening the potential objective at 1.3833.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The bottoming pattern already seemed to be breaking higher after Monday’s close was firming up toward 1240.00. Overnight action greeted Tuesday’s open by gapping up to 1260.00, which was still being tested at the close despite being probed intraday. Closing any higher would target 1270.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Consolidating narrowly under the gap back to 19.80 made the pattern likely to almost literally explode higher, which Tuesday’s open did after rallying overnight. The next higher objective in-play is 20.75.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The reaction up from Friday’s probe of fresh lows had recovered back up to 129-16 resistance, with room for extending up to 130-02. Tuesday’s gap up tested it while also touching 130-11. No accumulative pattern preceded the bounce, so a reaction down is likely.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The 98.35 target was met Tuesday, probed up to 98.75, whose recovery would be likely to extend sharply higher. More likely is a reaction down to the 94.00 area that consolidates this first rally leg.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
After testing and holding the rally’s 4.25 target Monday, Tuesday’s probe of fresh highs was required to extend higher in order to avoid a top. But probing a fresh high intraday was reversed down, which is also in-line with Monday’s fresh high having been launched from a position of weakness. A pullback has room down to 4.13.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold and Silver have consolidated last week’s two wild intraday swings, and started firming back to key resistance. Early probing of fresh highs Tuesday or Wednesday would be likely to extend sharply intraday.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s probe of a fresh low didn’t confirm any earlier breakout, so a second consecutive lower close Monday would confirm a new downleg underway. Alternatively, rallying to close higher Tuesday — without confirming Monday’s breakout attempt, and without leaving a gap outstanding — would form a new bottom.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s confirmation of Thursday’s breakout extended higher Monday to fresh highs, fulfilling the setup’s minimum for at least one more higher close. There is potential for testing 1.3775 or 1.3833 before ending this rally leg, but closing negative before then would signal momentum was already reversing down.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Closing Friday while in the process of testing the 1230.50 pullback limit did not extend down immediately Monday, confirming that the bottoming attempt remains intact. Monday’s firming was not relevant, but further improvement after the close did start positioning for an early test of the 1240.00-1245.50 resistance.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s ranging up to 19.80 consolidated just under last Wednesday’s gap, its continued coiling keeping optimism restrained, so that its eventual break higher would be that much more aggressive. Trending up after Monday’s close suggests a break higher may now be underway.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s test of 129-16 resistance was retested by Monday’s gap up, which only probed higher temporarily to 129-22 but didn’t extend, as the pattern still lacks a buy signal setup.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Narrow sideways ranging extended the consolidation just under the rally’s 98.35 target. The pattern is likely to resolve either in a correction back down to the 94.00 area, or else in a surge launching a new rally leg.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Despite Friday’s dip that didn’t confirm Thursday’s breakout, Monday’s gap up extended to fresh highs that fulfilled the rally’s 4.25 target. Having fulfilled buying pressure without gaining traction, any reversal down is likely to be very productive. But a reversal down requires closing under 4.13.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Whether Friday’s Employment Situation report helped currencies to confirm recent breakouts, but generally only triggered volatility elsewhere. Even then, currencies are required to produce at least one more new trending close.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s second consecutive lower close confirms Thursday’s breakout, now requiring there to be at least one more lower close. It need not be consecutive, so an immediate bounce would likely fail.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s second consecutive higher close confirms Thursday’s breakout, now requiring there to be at least one more higher close. It need not be consecutive, so an immediate dip would likely recover.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s volatility rivaled Wednesday’s range. A fresh low was probed down to 1210.00, reacting back up to 1245.00 on the Employment Situation report. Regardless of the volatility, closing above 1230.50 was the minimum requirement to maintain the bottoming effort — it was still being tested at the close.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report spiked down momentarily before returning to essentially unchanged, ranging narrowly into the weekend. Almost any initial strength would be credible for trending sharply higher intraday.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The knee-jerk reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report spiked to a fresh low at 128-01 and then spiked back up to 129-16 resistance, all within the context of ranging around the 128-29 prior low. There is still no sign of reversing momentum up.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Flat-to-higher ranging remained above 96.50 to keep intact the 98.35 target. Closing above 98.35 would next target 101.50.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending higher Friday attacked the 4.25 target to within a nickel before reacting down. The reaction down needed only to close positive to confirm Thursday’s breakout.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Friday’s Employment Situation report greets several markets challenging significant levels. Whether confirming or invalidating fresh breakouts, or finally triggering breakouts from recent ranges, there is potential for a lot of action into and out of the weekend.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s ECB and BOE announcements triggered a surge to new lows, after two prior recovery attempts had failed. A second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm the breakout. Not confirming wouldn’t necessarily equate to being a bottom, but it would be a start.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
A surge to fresh highs after Thursday’s ECB and BOE announcements created a breakout that still requires confirmation from a second consecutive higher close Friday. That’s not unlikely, but it’s not required. And the recent extended ranging was not accumulative, so it created no higher targets to attract price higher.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s steep $40 recovery through 1230.50 resistance to test 1251.00 was rejected by Thursday’s gap down back to 1230.50. Gapping down to 1230.50 made the 1245.50 pullback limit less relevant for targeting fresh lows, since so much selling pressure was already expended at the open. The break did extend down to 1216.50, but recovered back above 1230.50. Now closing back above 1245.50 would reinstate the rally.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap down to 19.35 retraced all of Wednesday’s last surge, and didn’t extend down. Instead, the surge was retraced by 61.8% up to 19.70. Almost any higher Friday would resume Wednesday’s rally. Otherwise, more consolidation will be required first.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh lows Thursday did not gain traction as the 128-29 prior low held its test. There is no active signal, leaving the pattern vulnerable to wide intraday gyrations in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh highs were probed up to 98.00 Thursday. Holding 96.50 would still keep alive the 98.35 target.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Hesitation at 4.00 never signaled a reversal down, and a favorable reaction to Thursday’s EIA triggered a surge to fresh highs at 4.14. The 4.25 target remains intact so long as 4.08 holds as support. But Thursday’s break also requires a second consecutive higher close to confirm its momentum remains intact.

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