Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Commodities were eerily calm Tuesday against the backdrop (or as the backdrop?) of the stock market’s wild gyrations. Don’t be deceived by their narrow ranges — big moves are brewing.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s dip retested Monday’s gap down, but didn’t extend it. Closing back above 81.05 would still signal momentum reversing up.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s failed gap up was retested Tuesday instead of reversing down. It was all noise, so buyers didn’t gain traction for their effort, and closing back under 1.3470 would still signal momentum reversing down.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
A fresh low at 1268.00 before Tuesday’s open wasn’t repeated intraday, as the session ranged narrowly above Monday’s lows up to 1278.00. The “ineffectual optimism” suggests that a bottom isn’t yet forming.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s night’s probe under Monday’s range down to 20.20 wasn’t repeated intraday Tuesday. Neither was it rejected. But any sudden steep surge would be plausible for reversing back up to 20.85, and higher in a new rally.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s narrow range helps to confirm that Monday’s 133-06 high didn’t quite stretch the rubber band tightly enough to trigger a reaction down back to the lows.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Coverage rolls forward from Dec to Jan, which trades at 40-cent premium. More important is the new front-month has made slightly higher lows during the past two weeks, while the expiring contract made lower lows. Perhaps some momentary dip on Wednesday wouldn’t be inappropriate to finish forming a bottom — but it would be bordering on overkill, and a rally should be obvious by Wednesday afternoon if the recent ranging has been forming a bottom.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The reaction down from Monday’s opening sentiment extreme extended down Tuesday to 3.56-3.57. Any lower would confirm a retest of recent lows is underway.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s double-digit plunge Monday behaved like a surprise, but only confirmed that last week’s one-day surge was not sponsored by strong hands. Its retracement isn’t yet complete, and might require another double-digit slide Tuesday. But this is a critical point that either forms a more durable bottom, or else extends the decline considerably.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s gap down didn’t extend and only ranged narrowly sideways, but a close back above 81.05 is still needed to signal that momentum has reversed back up.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Not surging higher at Monday’s open kept the bounce likely to retrace. Monday’s gap up was retraced back into Friday’s range, but now a close back under 1.3470 is still needed to signal momentum has reversed down.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s false break finished being retraced entirely Monday as the session’s double-digit plunge nearly filled the gap back to last Wednesday’s 1268.50 close. So long as 1274.50 isn’t recovered, extending the drop under 1265.00 would target 1254.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Not having recovered 20.70, the bounce remained vulnerable to ending. Having retested Wednesday’s 20.40 low on Monday, the question is whether a Double Bottom is forming, or if the decline is extending. Back above 20.50 would suggest the low’s retest had held, so long as the recovery were aggressive.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s bounce to 133-06 stopped short of its potential to 133-13 or 133-21 before completing the false break higher. Back under 132-16 would start to signal momentum was already reversing down to retest the recent low.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Still no early strength Monday to suggest a recovery is underway. Instead, the decline’s 92.85 target was retested. Closing back above the 94.60 buy signal is now more difficult, although early strength back above 94.10 would start to tilt momentum upward.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
There being no further room for a corrective bounce to extend higher, Monday’s open nevertheless gapped up above Friday’s highs. Price action ranged sideways, and then reversed back down to retrace almost all of Friday’s rally. There is no bearish reason to further delay extending down for the low’s retest. Closing almost any higher Tuesday would suggest that Monday’s dip was only a temporary correction, and that a bigger rally is underway.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Friday’s session wasn’t very volatile, which undermined Thursday’s efforts to launch recoveries in Gold and Bonds.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Narrowly ranging Friday at the recent range’s lower-end has further delayed resolving the consolidation, and that is improving the potential for it to break sharply lower. Regardless, the next trending up or down should begin very aggressively to release all the recently pent-up pressure.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s narrow ranging continued hovering at the recent range’s upper-end. The delay in rejecting it does improve the potential for launching a rally. Regardless, the next trending up or down should begin very aggressively to release all the recently pent-up pressure.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s reversal attempt extended no further Friday, failing to confirm that momentum has reversed up. Backing-and-filling to form a more durable bottom remains likely. Otherwise, a fresh high close on Monday would signal that a shallower corrective bounce is underway.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow ranging Friday was still testing 20.70, which would signal the decline had ended. The extra session now creates a pattern whose fresh low Monday under 20.40 that reverses to close above 20.70 would signal momentum is reversing up.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s narrow sideways ranging formed a Symmetrical Triangle off of Thursday’s high, suggesting the first trending attempt would recover back into the triangle, and then reverse more substantially in the opposite direction. Trending back down first would likely hold a test of 131-08/131-14 prior lows, which would likely be tested if the recovery tries extending higher Monday.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Friday avoided early strength that would have responded well to probing above 94.60. The reaction down was insignificant in degree, but meaningful for being the second consecutive session to avoid exploiting the recovery setup. That begins undermining the recovery potential, which must still close above 95.30 to confirm momentum has reversed up.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s recovery extended through Friday, albeit not to the same degree. But the week’s high was touched, and 3.63 was probed. Unless invalidated or rejected immediately Monday, the rally could extend to 3.77-3.81.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s bounce Thursday comes after Tuesday and Wednesday’s lows thoroughly tested the decline’s target. But the recovery is beginning a little too abruptly to avoid doing a little more work at the lows.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s narrow ranging suggests the recent dipping has not gained traction. There is no requirement to react up immediately, but not reacting up soon would become vulnerable to suddenly extending down sharply. There is specific trigger to the pattern at this stage, so it is not a very attractive trading candidate.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Flat-to-higher ranging persisted through Thursday’s open, still failing to gain any traction, while ranging around last Thursday’s 1.3450 high. A reaction down from here would be appropriate, but there is no actual signal in this pattern to require it. But either a steep reaction down or a steep surge is likely at this stage.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Holding Wednesday’s intraday test of the 1268.50 and 1274.50 targets produced a gap up Thursday that extended to attack 1294.00, leaving the gap back to Wednesday’s 1268.50 close that will need to be filled. Filling it and then closing back above 1278.50 would seal a bottom. The bounce otherwise might extend temporarily up to 1306.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap up tested 20.70, whose recovery would signal a bigger corrective bounce underway. It essentially held, despite being probed up to 20.88, suggesting that the gap back to Wednesday’s 20.45 close must be filled before a more durable bounce can begin.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The bounce from 131-08 extended higher Thursday amid Yellen’s confirmation hearing, testing 133-00 to within 1 tick. That should be the bounce’s peak before correcting to under 131-26 to 131-14 where a more durable bottom can form.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Any early strength above 94.60 would have been credible for launching a sizable rally, but Thursday morning only dropped back toward the 92.85 low. Its reaction back up toward 94.60 maintains the buy signal back above 94.60 for Friday morning.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The reaction down from Tuesday’s bounce limit extended even deeper Thursday to 3.49, but the EIA report reaction triggered a surge into positive territory testing 3.60. That would suffice as a corrective bounce, so long as the pullback were to resume without delay Friday. Otherwise, extending above 3.63 would start to signal a bigger bounce underway.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold didn’t worsen its position much Wednesday, while Crude Oil bounced to its resistance. Could their recent trends be preparing to at least correct soon?

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Exposure to BOE rate hike fears triggered a fresh relative low Wednesday, albeit not much lower than the past two-session range, suggesting the recent high can be retested.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday morning’s dip bounced from testing Monday’s low, and momentarily pierced Tuesday’s high as markets reacted to speculation of a BOE rate hike. Ultimately, the range held, leaving potential for retesting or attacking recent lows.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Intraday weakness Wednesday tested the decline’s 1268.50 target without extending down, creating the opportunity for at least a corrective bounce upon closing back above 1274.50. Otherwise, a retest of Tuesday’s 1260.50 post-close is likely.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday remained under pressure, extending the decline to probe under Tuesday’s post-close lows down to 20.40. Closing above 20.70 would trigger at least a corrective bounce, but the trend otherwise remains down.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s bounce from testing 131-08 support Tuesday began by gapping up, which automatically creates unfinished business below to undermine an immediate recovery, making Wednesday’s probe above 131-26 unlikely to extend higher without retesting 131-14 as support.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fulfilling the longstanding 92.85 target Tuesday produced a bounce testing 94.60 resistance Wednesday. Its recovery on a closing basis would signal momentum reversing up, confirmed above 95.30.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s test of 3.63 was the maximum allowable corrective bounce limit, requiring Wednesday to start producing downside price action. Intraday weakness was shallow, but still appropriate for beginning a retest of recent lows, assuming that Thursday’s EIA report reacts down instead of up.

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