Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s rally Monday has created extra room to absorb selling pressure, which should prevent selling pressure from reversing momentum back down.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Gapping up Monday was in-line with Friday’s inside day having suggested a fresh low would recover. Filling the gap back to Friday’s close could form a durable bottom.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s dip back toward 1.3333 extended down sharply by gapping down at Monday’s open. The potential for extending the rally depends almost entirely on resuming it without delay.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s gap up essentially proved that Friday’s narrow ranging was a Running Correction, which in turn proves the bullish pattern that has been developing. Pullbacks now should hold any test of 1330.50 to maintain the rally’s momentum.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up and extending sharply higher intraday Monday attacked the rally’s 21.50 target to within almost a dime. The rally’s momentum remains intact so long as 21.25 now holds as support.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh highs Monday testing 135-00 resistance were retraced back down toward 134-00. Closing any higher could have triggered a substantial detour before fulfilling fresh lows at 131-06, but back under 133-24 would signal that move underway, confirmed under 133-10.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Friday’s surge to 106.00 resistance did find buying pressure lacking just when it was needed most, so Monday’s open dipped and its intraday probe above 106.50 failed. Back above 106.50 Tuesday would be credible for extending higher, but there is otherwise more vulnerability to another morning pullback.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Monday to test Friday’s high 3.32 high extended higher initially, but ultimately ranged sideways intraday. A second consecutive higher close would confirm momentum has reversed up.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s rally into the weekend certainly validates the significance of meeting Thursday’s pullback target, but it doesn’t yet confirm a new rally leg is underway.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s inside day following Thursday’s gap down to new lows doesn’t terminate the decline’s momentum, but it does suggest that a fresh low would be recovered and potentially reversed back up.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s test of 1.3400 was retraced Friday to attack 1.3333, which needs to hold as support to maintain the rally’s potential for extending higher to 1.3580.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s choppy ranging Friday initially backed off from 1312.50, but ultimately recovered it. Regardless, there has yet to be trending above ti to confirm a new rally leg underway.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The recovery tested its 20.50 objective Friday, filling an outstanding gap, which should only temporarily delay extending to the next higher objective at 21.50.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Early weakness was muted Friday, and anyway recovered to test Thursday’s high. There is no new signal, while awaiting the potential for breaking back under 133-10 to test fresh lows at 131-06.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
An overnight probe above the 104.25 buy signal was retraced overnight, but then probed again more strongly intraday to end Friday testing 106.00. A second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm the 103.55 target’s test was complete. Pullbacks should meanwhile hold any test of 104.65-104.75.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s 3.22 high held a test of the recent slide’s “higher prior lows” while also filling a gap above. Probing any higher early Monday would be likely to extend intraday, probably at a steep slope.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil met its target Thursday. Was it just in time to join Gold in its recovery leg? Or will it attract buyers away from Gold?

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s gap down extended lower through the morning to test 80.90, threatening critical support at 80.65.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s retest of last week’s high was extended aggressively Thursday, first by gapping up and then by trending higher to test 1.3400 through the morning. Unless rejected immediately Friday by gapping down back under 1.333, or at least by reversing down aggressively from a higher intraday high, the next higher objective of 1.3580 is in-play.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s recovery from gapping down to fresh lows was just bullish enough to fulfill the pattern’s timing requirement. But a strong uptrending session could not be further delayed, and Thursday’s $30 rally qualified. A close above 1312.50 would confirm a new upleg is underway. Meanwhile, pullbacks must hold 1296.50.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap up from its recent basing probed through 20.00 resistance. Peaking at the recent 20.26 high reflects just enough healthy pessimism to that makes filling the outstanding gap at 20.50 likely, if not also trending another $1 through it to 21.50.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh highs Thursday did not gain any new traction, but a close back under 133-10 is still needed to signal fresh lows in-play down to 131-06.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The 103.55 target at last Wednesday’s opening gap down was met Thursday, along with probing under last Wednesday’s low. Closing back at or above 103.55 suggests that selling pressure had peaked, but a close above 104.25 is needed to begin signaling that momentum is reversing up.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
A negative knee-jerk reaction to Thursday’s EIA report found no sellers to extend down any further, since the extended downdraft had already expended so much selling pressure. It’s not a bottom, but does allow a reversal pattern to be credible.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s pullback is attacking its target. And its target is almost the maximum allowable pullback while still being able to recover back to recent highs.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s test of 81.65 support was extended Wednesday on the way to new lows for the move testing 81.30. There is still room to 80.65 before signaling a bigger drop underway — which would likely be very aggressive.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The rally’s 1.3333 target was probed Wednesday, holding prior highs. There is no new setup in-play.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reversing up from fresh lows overnight back into positive territory intraday qualifies as bullish activity, which the pattern required for Wednesday. But that must be exploited Thursday morning to signal momentum reversing up.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down sharply Wednesday was recovered to fill the gap back up to Tuesday’s close. If the hesitation there — instead of probing higher — were pessimism, then extending any higher early Thursday should extend higher sharply.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s probe above Tuesday’s range exceeded Friday’s 133-25 high, jeopardizing the 131-06 target. Closing back under 133-10 Thursday’s would reinstate it.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday extended the slide instead of bouncing from Tuesday’s filled gap. The 103.55 target remains intact.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Wednesday may have discounted a negative EIA report due Thursday, but that wouldn’t make a positive reaction any likelier to extend higher without first forming an accumulation pattern at the low.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Tuesday’s extended drop in Gold doubled down on Monday’s attack on Friday’s lows. Tuesday’s selling actually probed a fresh low. The next sizable leg should be obvious very soon.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday ranged around 81.65 support, suggesting that sellers aren’t gaining traction, but also that a bottom has not yet formed.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s bounce that only attacked 1.3333 confirms that recent highs will need a little more testing as resistance before a downleg can trigger.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s drop extended down into and out of Tuesday’s open, probing under Monday morning’s 1282.30 low. Serving as a retest of the prior low could still form a durable bottom that launches a recovery, and that recovery would now be signaled as early as 1297.50. But there is also no further room to absorb selling pressure without it extending into a much deeper downleg.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday afternoon’s narrow ranging under 19.65 doesn’t so much undermine Monday having held it, since its probe did not trend down. But there should is no room for absorbing further selling pressure, so a recovery should be obvious soon after Wednesday’s open if a new downleg is to be avoided.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s pullback was neither recovered nor extended Tuesday, as a retest of last week’s lows down to 131-06 remains the likely next objective.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Recovering Friday and Monday’s probes under 106.50 and 106.00 did not trigger upside momentum that could avoid extending the pullback. Tuesday’s fresh lows tested 104.85, natural support that fills the gap back to last Wednesday’s close. But the decline is targeting 93.55-93.60 so long as 106.00-106.50 is not recovered.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Ranging narrowly sideways at the lows does not necessarily mean the decline is losing momentum.

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