Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold slid sharply Wednesday morning, which recent distributive patterns had warned. Much more interesting is that the early slide was accompanied by a sharply lower Dollar Index that was fulfilling lower targets. Gold may be lagging behind the Dollar, so its strength Thursday could help Gold end its pullback soon.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s gap down immediately fulfilled the long-standing 81.40 target. It held as support through the close. A second consecutive lower close is needed to form a lower target.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s gap up probed fresh highs attacking 1.3250. A second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm whether potential remains intact up to 1.3325, if not also 1.3425.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s slide from 1472.00 to 1440.00 helped to confirm the recent distributive pattern whose pullback target is 1429.50, so long as 1463.50 isn’t recovered.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap down extended to 23.25 support, presumably on the way to 22.95 so long as 23.55 is not recovered.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh highs above 149-05 were probed Wednesday morning, and then the long-standing 149-14 target was tested up to 149-21 Wednesday afternoon. The close dipped back down to 149-05. Back under 148-28 would signal momentum reversing down.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The 91.00 target was fulfilled early Wednesday. Its reaction up failed on EIA data, extending down to 90.11, but ending the day back at 91.00. There is no active signal.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s early surge compensated for its delay from Monday and extended sharply higher intraday to fresh relative highs at 4.44. The balance of the session slid back toward Monday’s lows at 4.31. Thursday’s EIA report is not at all assured of resuming or extending the rally.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s narrow ranging and the long bond’s narrow ranging have created an eery sense of something volatile about to happen. The recent run-up in Crude Oil may be only coincidental. In any case, a knee-jerk reaction to news would get a benefit of the doubt, instead of just doubt.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s drop to new lows at 81.65 must now hold under 81.95 to maintain the drop’s momentum.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The two-week old gap up to 1.3188 was filled Tuesday, and held. So did a test of 1.3155 support. Back under 1.3120-1.3130 would now signal momentum reversing down.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s pre-open surge back toward Friday’s 1483.00 high was not duplicated intraday. Early strength Wednesday would be credible for extending up to 1532.50 before launching a new downleg to new lows under 1390.00. Otherwise, a near-term dip could launch another rally leg from testing 1429.50.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s ranging around 24.20 for a second consecutive session makes any new strength capable of extending higher into the weekend.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s retest of the 149-05 high reaction down to test the 148-16 pullback limit. The quick dip still seems a little premature to reverse down already, but early weakness would still get a benefit of the doubt for extending intraday.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s test of the 93.25 pullback limit allows renewed strength targeting 95.30 and potentially 96.00.  Back under 92.85 would instead target 91.00.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s recovery attempt didn’t extend any higher Tuesday. Neither was it rejected, so early strength Wednesday would be credible for extending to new highs into and out of Thursday’s EIA report.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight It’s probably too early for Gold to extend its recovery, unless this has been only a temporary corrective bounce. That didn’t stop it from trying, and Crude Oil seemed to come along prematurely for the ride. If a a corrective dip is coming anytime soon, then it should be obvious by Tuesday’s close, and no later than Wednesday’s open.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s reaction down from the 82.80 bounce limit extended down sharply Monday to fresh lows at 82.10. Any lower would continue targeting 81.80, but closing back above 82.45 could now end the pullback.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The door still remained open to a rally, and Sunday night compensated for the delay by gapping up above Friday’s 1.3040 high and rallying sharply up to 1.3120. Back under 1.3065 would start to signal momentum reversing down. Otherwise, the rally’s momentum remains intact.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
While  Friday’s volatility suggests that ultimately the recovery intends to continue, a deeper pullback first became likely. That didn’t prevent Sunday night’s double-digit rally back up toward 1478.50. But the balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways, forming an Inside Day, that remains more vulnerable to reversing back down next.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap up ranged sideways under Friday’s highs, dipping back to the rally’s original 24.20 target (basis Jul, 2415 basis May).

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s narrow ranging around Friday’s high got up to 149-05, but ultimately failed to extend any higher. There remains potential up to 149-14, so long as 148-16 were to hold support. And now the sell signal can be raised from 147-26 up to 148-06.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Although Friday’s dip to 92.05 ultimately recovered enough to maintain the rally’s momentum, its immediately resumption wasn’t likely. It resumed immediately anyway, probing fresh highs Monday testing 94.70. Avoiding any near-term weakness back under 93.25 to signal momentum reversing down would instead target 95.30 and 96.00.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s recovery from its deep intraday dip kept open the same setup that any initial strength Monday would be likely to extend sharply higher intraday. The open gapped up sharply, itself, but still extended from 4.30 to attack 4.40. This leg has potential to 4.48 and 4.53.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s early strength Friday was rejected. So was its renewed strength later in the session. That’s not enough to prevent a deep pullback, but the interest at higher levels does suggest that a new rally leg will emerge from the pullback.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Yen strength influenced the Dollar Index’s return to Thursday’s low. Resuming the decline would have little tolerance for more than the briefest bounce.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s narrow ranging ignored Yen volatility and firmed only slightly. Any recovery still relies largely on avoiding any new selling pressure, or at least quickly rejecting and reversing from any blip-down.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s early attempt to extend further above the rally’s 1456.00 target tested 1484.00. The morning’s reaction down attacked 1456.00 before rallying again, attacking the morning’s 1484.00 high. Recovering significantly all of the significant rally’s significant reaction down did not prevent a more significant reaction down back under 1456.00 (amid rumors of a large margin call). But the pullback will get a benefit of the doubt for being able to recover to fresh highs.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The bounce’s minimum 24.15 target was probed Thursday, but held as resistance through the close. Thursday night’s probe above it to 24.80 and Friday’s intraday test of 24.50 both fell back under 24.15. A deeper dip has potential to 23.25 so long as bounces now hold 24.20.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s shallow dip testing the 147-26 sell signal seemed relatively strong considering the environment, and suggested the 149-14 target remains in-play. Friday’s gap up and intraday extension to test prior highs above 149-00 further suggests that higher highs are likely. It would also allows a higher sell signal to be calculated.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Overnight weakness following Thursday’s test of the rally’s 93.55-93.75 target extended lower into Friday morning to test 92.00. Enough of the 92.95 pullback limit was recovered to expect another dip will also recover, but not yet to extend the rally.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s probe of fresh pullback lows would have allowed initial strength Friday to gain traction, but Friday’s open fell. And not a little. But it was recovered enough to keep open the same bullish setup, for initial strength Monday to gain traction.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s minimum target was tested Thursday. And exceeded. Silver didn’t do too badly, either. A second consecutive higher close Friday would signal a much bigger bounce underway. So, avoiding a much bigger bounce would require dropping deeply into the weekend.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s deep gap down to test 82.50 was retraced almost entirely back into positive territory at 83.00. The afternoon drifted lower to test 82.80, keeping alive potential for resuming the decline into the weekend.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Pent-up buying pressure from Wednesday’s narrow ranging, combined Thursday with the requirement to rally immediately for the decline to avoid extending down. The open gapped up sharply and tested 1.3100. But an immediate dive back down into negative territory under 1.300 struggled to recover into positive territory above 1.3025. The rally’s resumption still cannot afford any delay.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1456.00 target was met early Thursday, and later exceeded to test 1468.00. A second consecutive higher close would put into play 1513.00.  A pullback has room down to 1446.00 before putting into play a target at 1429.00, whose break would resume the decline to new lows.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap up dipped back down to the 23.55 buy signal before resuming the rally to test the 24.15 target above 24.30. Now 24.15 must hold as support to maintain the rally’s momentum.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s shallow gap down spent the session ranging very narrowly around the 147-26 sell signal. Not extending down despite stocks and metals extending higher suggests the 149-14 target remains in-play.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
After a slow start Thursday, a second consecutive ~$2.30 rally tested the 93.55-93.75 target. Any higher high now requires that pullbacks hold 92.95 as support.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s extra dip prevented Thursday from resuming the rally, instead requiring a new accumulation pattern to form. An intraday probe of fresh lows was recovered to close positive, allowing almost any initial strength Friday to extend higher. But a close above 4.35 is still needed to resume the rally.

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