Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s immediate recovery Wednesday left an excessively optimistic low outstanding from Tuesday. While the eventual resolution will still likely be down, the excessive optimism can breed more excessive optimism if quickly rewarded.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s drop suffered the consequences of two lackluster reactions to the 82.15 pullback limit. Back above 82.15 and 82.40 would resume the rally targeting 82.80..

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s gap up from the 1.3105 bounce limit through 1.3150 resistance eventually retraced much of the improvement above 1.3150. Back under 1.3105 would renew the decline.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Although Tuesday’s drop back to prior lows at 1440.00 had held its 1451.00 bounce limit, Wednesday’s opening prints immediately filled the gap back to Monday’s 1468.00 close. Monday’s high was tested up to almost 1476.00. Rejecting Tuesday’s optimistic low so forcibly undermines the potential for extending down to 1429.50.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s choppy sideways ranging neither exploited nor rejected Tuesday’s complete recovery of its gap down. But it did contrast again with Gold’s price action. There remains potential down to 22.95, but no active signal.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The pattern’s timing for extending the drop at an accelerated pace was not fulfilled through most of Wednesday. In fact, the drop was retraced somewhat to test “higher prior lows” up to 146-30. The 147-02 bounce limit remained intact, and resuming the decline targeting 144-28 still should be at an accelerated pace if valid.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s fresh highs above 96.50 tried to resume the rally, next targeting 98.10. Recent overnight highs above 97.00 have yet to be recovered.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s probe under 3.95-4.00 was retraced back into the 3.95-4.00 range Wednesday, but no higher, still needing to recovery 4.05 before signaling that momentum is reversing up.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s drop Tuesday managed to hold just above last week’s low. That’s a lot of optimism for being down by double-digits. And that’s typically not the stuff of bottoms. Even if only to conclude a corrective dip, fresh lows are likely.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s gap down held the 82.15 whose test Friday had maintained the potential for bouncing up to 82.80.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Ranging around the 1.3105 bounce limit Tuesday kept alive potential for resuming the decline, or at least retesting recent lows.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The potential that had emerged recently for probing a fresh high above 1483.00 proved only fleeting, as Tuesday plunged back to recent lows attacking 1440.00. So long as bounces now hold any test of 1551.00, dropping back under 1442.50 would confirm the correction down to 1429.50 is underway.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s further delay of the 22.95 pullback objective’s test was starting to make it less likely, and Tuesday tried compensating by gapping down sharply to 23.40. The gap back to Monday’s 23.95 close was filled, neutralizing its attraction above, and back under 23.55would signal that 22.95 was in-play.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s missed opportunity for a sizable corrective bounce had indicated the trend remained down near-term, probably targeting 144-28. Tuesday’s slightly lower lows all but require the slide to accelerate Wednesday if valid.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s attack on Monday’s probe under 94.90 never recovered back above 96.00, but sellers did not gain traction, so the rally targeting 98.10 remains in-play.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Two consecutive recoveries from dipping intraday into the 3.95-4.00 area did not prevent Tuesday from sliding to fresh lows. Now a close above 4.05 would signal preliminarily that momentum is reversing up to at least test 4.15. There is otherwise no active signal.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Despite rejecting fresh highs overnight, Crude Oil never attracted bearish sponsorship Monday, keeping alive potential for extending the rally.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s late dip held the 82.15 pullback limit, but Monday’s firming barely qualified as resuming the recovery attempt targeting 82.80.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Holding the 1.3105 bounce limit Friday allowed Monday to resume the decline, although the session only slid within its range.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Choppy sideways ranging throughout the session maintained positive territory, but was too shallow to gain traction. I can’t yet discount the potential for probing above 1483.00 intraday, or even closing above it.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s sideways ranging gained no traction either way. But it also further delayed dipping to 22.95, which is starting to make it less likely.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday soon resumed the decline and extended under Friday’s 146-27 low down to 146-14. This extension undermines the opportunity for a corrective bounce, which is now unlikely so long as 147-02 holds as resistance.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh highs overnight probing above 97.00 were retraced back into negative territory under 95.00 by Monday’s open. The reversal didn’t extend either, and the balance of the session ranged sideways at or under Friday’s ~96.00 highs. Almost any early strength Tuesday would confirm 98.10 is in-play.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s gap down retested Friday’s dip into the 3.95-4.00 area. A bounce filled the open’s gap back to Friday’s close, neutralizing its attraction above. There is no unfinished business above or below.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long-bond had met a long-awaited target Wednesday, less than two days before plunging in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report. Either the bond is done and much lower lows lie ahead, or the week should begin with a sizable corrective bounce.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Improved momentarily to attack its 82.80 target up to 82.60 but ended the day testing its 82.15 pullback limit to maintain the recovery’s potential.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Had rallied overnight to 1.3150 but plunged on NFP data to retest Thursday’s 1.3040 lows. Bouncing back up to 1.3150 still ended the day testing the 1.3105 bounce limit, instead of signaling a rally underway.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight probe up to 1487.00 failed before Friday’s open. Another surge held 1480.00 before reversing back down to 1455.40. Ended the day down slightly around 1465.00. Continues to be potential for breaking higher to 1532.50, until a pullback actually closes under 1529.50

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s ranging gained no traction either way, keeping the door open to a deeper pullback targeting 22.95.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s reaction down from Wednesday’s test of the long-awaited 149-14 target had dipped prematurely Thursday morning back under the 148-28 sell signal. Friday’s reaction down on the Employment Situation report extended sharply lower to 146-27. Extending any lower anytime soon requires bounces to hold 147-12.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The retest of prior highs also tested 94.75 resistance early Friday, and extended to also test 96.00. A second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm 98.10 is in-play. Closing back under 94.75 should instead start trending back down.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s plunge did suddenly slow its pace come Friday. And fresh lows did probe the 3.95-4.00 support, then closed positive. Closing Monday back above 4.16 would seal a bottom.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Dollar Index rallied sharply Thursday after Wednesday’s low finally touched its long-awaited target.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s early test of the 81.40 target had already satisfied long-standing selling pressure, facilitating a violent reaction up Thursday to test 82.40. And the bounce could extend to 82.80 if 82.15 were to hold as support.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s plunge to 1.3040 all but negates the 1.3325 target. Any rally must first close above 1.3105.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s gap up from Wednesday’s test of 1440.00 filled the gap back to Tuesday’s 1473.00 close. And held. Closing any higher would have started to signal the correction need not extend down to 1429.50 before recovering to 1532.50. Now a close above 1480.00 is required in order to prevent an even deeper drop from beginning.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Thursday from Wednesday’s test of 23.25 support only filled the gap back to Tuesday’s test of 24.20. A higher close would undermine resuming the pullback targeting 22.95.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The reaction down from testing the 149-14 target Wednesday extended down sharply at Thursday’s open to probe briefly under the 148-28 sell signal. A quick recovery spent the balance of the session ranging narrowly around the 149-05 prior high.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s drop from 93.40 had immediately fulfilled the pattern’s 91.00 target, without signaling any new pattern in-play. That didn’t prevent (or even inhibit) Thursday from recovering back up through 94.00. A retest of the prior high up to 94.75 is likely, and closing above it would target 98.10.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s failed rally attempt from 4.44 down to 4.31 left the pattern extremely vulnerable, which Thursday’s plunge to 4.02 proved. Closing positive after dipping Friday into the 3.95-4.00 range would be interesting for possibly bottoming, but there is no active pattern.

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