Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s relatively narrow ranging between support and resistance might be just what the recovery-doctor ordered. But a recovery isn’t signaled until closing above resistance, so the trend is meanwhile likelier to extend down.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s gap up back above 82.25 prior lows extended higher to attack 82.80, which must hold to maintain potential for resuming the decline to its 81.40 target.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s gap down immediately slid under the 1.3105 pullback limit to test the past week’s 1.3035 lows. Tuesday’s breakout is invalidated, and a second consecutive lower close would confirm momentum has reversed down. There is otherwise potential for retesting Tuesday’s 1.3200 close.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday formed the most bullish price action for this stage of the pattern, and only ranged relatively narrowly, holding tests of 1364.50-1372.00 as support and 1395.00-1400.00 as resistance. Breaking either end of the range would be likely to trend about $30 in that direction.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Wednesday held tests of 22.45 as support to avoid triggering a probe of new lows, but can’t afford to extend down any further if there is potential for fresh recovery highs to test 24.15.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having held the 147-14 pullback limit, the rally resumed up to 148-21 to probe above overnight highs that had yet to be retested intraday. Now pullbacks must hold 148-00 as support to maintain the 149-16 target.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s second consecutive close under 89.25 quickly fulfilled its 87.00 minimum objective Wednesday by nearly a $1 margin. This leg can extend to 85.00 before expecting it to accelerate down.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s initial strength fulfilled the bullish 2-day Pivot Reversal setup described after Tuesday’s close. Its brief dip back barely pierced negative territory before recovering back to 4.21, targeting 4.50 so long as pullbacks now hold 4.18 as support.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s bounce target that was put into play Monday was fulfilled on Tuesday. And it held as resistance. Trying to resume the recovery too quickly would destroy a bottoming opportunity — like Monday morning’s initial bounce.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s gap down extended to fresh lows  and the 81.40 target remains in-play, now so long as bounces were to hold any test of 82.20 resistance.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping up Tuesday and extending higher to fresh highs at 1.3208 keeps alive the 1.3325 target, which now requires that pullbacks hold any test of 1.3105 as support.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite falling to lows overnight at 1321.50, Tuesday’s open gapped up to test the 1400.00 target that had been put into play above 1364.00. Its reaction down to 1372.50 ranged sideways back to 1395.00. Back under 1364.00 would target fresh lows, perhaps launching a new downleg with potential down to 1220.00. Back above 1400.00 would target 1428.00 and higher.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday night’s fresh low down to 22.00 was recovered Tuesday up to almost 24.00. An upleg would be signaled underway by closing above 24.15.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s dip back into negative territory held a test of the 147-14 pullback limit, maintaining the likelihood to resume the rally next targeting 149-16.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s second consecutive close under 89.25 essentially requires a close under 87.00 to follow.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s opening gap up to the 4.18 resistance was reversed back to the recent Triangle’s 4.08 prior low. That was recovered back into positive territory, attacking 4.18. Initial strength Wednesday would be credible for forming a bullish 2-day Pivot Reversal pattern, confirmed by extending to close at fresh highs targeting 4.50.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s capitulation Monday offered the first opportunity in months for a durable bottom to form. So did Monday’s second capitulation. The third capitulation might have been the charm. But even a 3-digit rally Tuesday wouldn’t prove that — a pattern will still need to form.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s inside day keeps alive the drop targeting 81.40, so long as “sleeper resistance” at 82.65 is not recovered.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s inside day ranged around its 1.3065 pullback limit, requiring that the rally resume without delay to maintain its potential to the 1.3325 target. Closing negative Tuesday would instead end the rally, and target 1.2990.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
There is no change to the scenario and parameters defined in Monday’s intraday post, linked here.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing Tuesday back above Monday’s 24.10 opening gap down would be the earliest indication that a bottom may be forming.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 148-00 bounce target was tested pre-open and post-open during the most aggressive segments of Monday’s stock market decline. Fresh highs at 149-16 now require that pullbacks hold tests of 147-14 as support.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Closing under the drop’s next target at 89.25 Monday now requires its immediate recovery to prevent extending the decline.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s unstable breakout was confirmed as such by Monday’s drop back to Thursday’s close. Another rally effort would now be credible for gaining traction.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Thursday’s test of “higher prior lows” needed to be the bounce’s peak in order to resume the decline targeting new lows. It was. And it did.. Friday’s plunge set-up the potential for Monday either to capitulate and end the bear market, or to refuel sellers with another futile bounce.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s gap up to the 82.45-82.50 bounce limit was reversed down immediately to end the day largely unchanged, keeping alive potential for resuming the decline targeting 81.40.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s reaction down from testing its 1.3140 target began Friday by gapping down. The 1.3065 pullback limit was probed only briefly before recovering back to Wednesday’s 1.3105 high. The rally can resume up to 1.3325 unless first closing under 1.3065, which would target at least 1.2990.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s test of “higher prior lows” up to 1567.00 needed to be the bounce’s peak to resume the decline targeting new lows. It was. And it did. Friday’s plunge down to 1491.40 cannot be a trend low, since its gap down was under all prior lows. Even an immediate rally would need to be retraced. The pattern has no attractive parameters at this stage, with room for a bounce up to 1521.00, but much lower lows likely upon closing under 1495.50.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The attraction back down to 27.15 proved to be an understatement as Friday’s plunge fell to new lows at 26.00 and next targeting 25.75.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming in the face of Thursday’s stock market rally had suggested any initial recovery attempt would extend sharply higher intraday. In fact, Friday’s open gapped up above Tuesday’s 146-30 lows and extended back above the original 147-14 sell signal, bringing the 148-00 bounce target within reach.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Delaying a recovery after Thursday’s drop back to 93.35-93.65 support was likely to be bearish, as proved by Friday gapping down under the 92.00 prior lows and extending lower intraday to 90.27. The afternoon’s bounce tested 91.75, and back under 91.05-91.20 would resume the drop next targeting 89.25.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s recovery back up to the week’s 4.18 highs had formed an Ascending Triangle. Friday’s gap up above 4.18 extended higher to 4.25. The breakout targeting 4.50 needs to be confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Monday to avoid dipping back down to 4.16.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s bad day Thursday is trying to invalidate the confirmed breakout that had been very productive through Wednesday’s close. This pattern should not only resolve one way or the other on Friday, but would also likely do so aggressively, and extend sharply into next week.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s gap down to fresh lows testing 82.15 now require that bounces hold any test of 82.45-82.50 to maintain the 81.40 target.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The rally’s minimum 1.3140 target was met Thursday. So long as pullbacks were to hold 1.3065, the rally can extend higher to 1.3325.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness down to 1553.00 was recovered intraday by rallying up to 1567.00 and retesting what had been Monday’s “higher prior lows,” and also Wednesday afternoon’s lows on the way down. It should be the bounce’s peak. Recovering 1575.00 would trigger a much bigger bounce with potential up to 1597.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s narrow range remained under the 27.90 bounce limit that keeps alive the drop’s 27.15 target.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
It’s interesting that the recent dip didn’t extend down while stocks surged to new highs. Any initial recovery attempt would be that much more credible for extending sharply higher intraday.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s breakout above 94.15 was retraced entirely Thursday back down to the pattern’s original 93.35-93.65 pullback limit. Closing back above 94.15 Friday would be credible for resuming the rally. But delaying a recovery — whether or not extending down — would be bearish.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Getting EIA out of the way allowed a recovery of Wednesday’s high and for that to extend back up to Monday’s 4.18 high. Any higher close Friday would trigger a breakout.

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