Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Bonds and currencies did an about-face Friday that suggests their moves Thursday were absorbed — the bond’s deep drop, and the Euro’s gap up were each retraced entirely. The action defines a trading range that has yet to resolve, but should resolve powerfully by mid-week.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Although Thursday’s break under 79.85 had invalidated the near-term attraction to 80.50, that was quickly overcome by Friday’s gap up back through 79.85. A second consecutive higher close would confirm that 80.50 remains in-play.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s suspicious rally was rejected by Friday’s gap down under Thursday’s 1.3340 low. Now there is an attraction above, back to Thursday’s 1.3380 gap. Filling it first or else retesting the 1.3260 first, should hold and launch a more substantial move in the opposite direction.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s flat-to-lower ranging back down to the 1685.00 prior highs doesn’t invalidate the rally’s momentum, but it does threaten it if the rally doesn’t resume almost immediately Monday.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Probing fresh highs above 32.00 Friday and holding 31.65 as support intraday does maintain potential for extending next to 32.50.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Gapping up to and through 145-16 Friday invalidates the drop’s near-term momentum, but not the drop’s potential to resume. A test of “higher prior lows” at 146-00 and filling the gap back to Wednesday’s 146-04 close can still neutralize any attraction above to allow the decline’s resumption. But closing above 146-04 would mean Thursday’s drop had ended a correction, and the rally was resuming.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s breakout didn’t extend any higher Friday, but neither was it retraced. An interim one-day dip down to 94.20 can’t be discounted, but 99.00 is targeted so long as no dip is any deeper or lasts any longer.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The rally extended Friday, still avoiding any refueling dip. Perhaps a dip to 3.37-3.44 would suffice at this point, but there is still risk for a bigger drop testing 3.25 before a durable rally could gain traction.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold absorbed another shakeout Thursday. Its recovery left little to be desired, except for leaving little on the table for Friday. It may be only a corrective rally, but it should extend higher into and out of the weekend if Friday morning isn’t already rejecting it.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s gap down well under 79.85 invalidates the attraction up to 80.50. Bouncing to test 79.85 intraday does allow its recovery to reinstate the 80.50 objective.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday’s repeated optimism still left enough buying pressure for Thursday to gap up and test prior highs attacking 1.3395. I’m still suspicious. Back under 1.3320 would signal momentum reversing down to more thoroughly test 1.3260.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s opening probe under 1675.00 to test 1666.00 was recovered and reversed well into positive territory above the 1685.00 prior highs attacking 1698.00. The 1720.00 objective is now in-play, unless 1685.00 fails to hold as support. Regardless of the interim rally, back under 1675.00 — and not higher — would signal momentum reversing down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s shallow opening pullback was reversed into positive territory to probe the 31.65 objective up to 31.93. So long as 31.65 holds as support, the next higher target is 32.50.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The recent bounce was likely ending if not extended immediately Thursday. The open’s gap down through 145-16 and extension down to 144-28. Closing under 144-16 would confirm the trend had reversed down, but closing back above 145-16 would signal the drop had ended a correction.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Chipping away at 94.20 resistance finally broke, gapping up and extending higher to test 96.00, putting into play 99.00 so long as Friday closes higher for a second consecutive session.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Impatiently rallying to 3.37-3.44 and hesitating at its resistance did not prevent Thursday from resuming the rally to 3.53. Back under 3.35 would target 3.20-3.25.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas has had a very optimistic week. A lot of buying was expended, just to test resistance. That’s not necessarily bearish. In fact, I’ll be very bullish if a reaction down Thursday were absorbed.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s shallow ranging around 79.85 maintains the 80.50 objective.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The pullback’s 1.3260 pullback objective was attacked, triggering a reaction back into positive territory above 1.3300. First probing the pullback objective, or at least not being so quick to bounce, would launch a more reliable rally. So, I am suspicious of whether the pullback has actually yet ended.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s gap down held test of 1675.00 instead of extending below it. The gap was filled intraday. Neutralizing its attraction above has allowed an extra day for sellers to retake control. Almost any further delay or higher close would all but require extending up to 1720.00 before next threatening to retest recent lows at 1637.40.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s gap down was retraced entirely. Filling the gap back to Tuesday’s close has neutralized its attraction above. Probing higher highs — especially if that were to test 31.65 — and closing negative would now trigger a reversal down.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday’s gap up probed fresh highs without extending higher intraday, all for the third consecutive. Either the bounce is ending, or it is about to accelerate sharply higher. The latter, bullish scenario would be likely Thursday from any initial strength, if not from any delay in reversing down. Jobless Claims are due pre-open.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Resistance at 94.20 was chipped away further Wednesday. The ongoing choppy range already lost its timing in last Thursday’s inside day, but a failed break higher would still target 91.25, while maintaining a breakout would target 99.00.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Having rallied uninterrupted to fully test 3.37-3.44 resistance without a dipping to refuel along the way, 3.44 resistance held for the second consecutive day. Thursday’s EIA report should shake the pattern loose.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Yesterday I noted how last week’s trending in Gold, Bonds and Natural Gas had residual effect Monday. Their moves extended Tuesday, but a chink in the armor appeared with the Euro reversing course sharply.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) A reaction down from Tuesday’s test of the 79.85 bounce limit should hold 79.70 to maintain potential for extending the bounce to 80.50.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday afternoon’s dive attacked the 1.3260 pullback objective, after the open gapped down. That’s a lot of selling pressure, making a test of 1.3260 that much likelier to hold.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday’s recovery had held 1675.00 resistance to avoid retracing all of Thursday’s rally. Any higher becomes unlikely to retest recent lows down to 1637.40. So, Tuesday’s fresh highs at 1685.00 suggest the recent lows won’t be retested, not unless Wednesday’s open were to gap under 1675.00 and trend down sharply.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s extension of the recovery attacked near-term resistance at 31.65, which is in-play so long as 31.00 now holds as support.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s probe above 145-16 was retraced entirely, but only back to unchanged levels. Tuesday’s open gapped up above Monday’s 146-00 high, and also ranged flat-to-lower. This pattern is not gaining traction, but its gains can continue indefinitely. Back under 145-16 would signal momentum reversing down.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Monday’s late bounce back to 94.20 resistance was probed briefly overnight, but mostly rejected Tuesday afternoon by sliding down to 93.20, keeping alive potential for extending down to 91.25.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Extending immediately to 3.44 without first dipping to refuel buyers will undermine any higher close from gaining traction to become a new rally leg.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Mondays can be interesting for often reflecting the prior week’s residual influences. Almost as often, that only stretches the rubber band far enough to snap back. The long bond’s fresh high Monday, Gold’s bounce, Natty Gas fresh highs — each has started the week with buying pressure that could be crushed by the slightest hesitation.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s narrow range does not change there being room for a bounce up to 79.85 before suggesting momentum has reversed up.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The rally firmed a little further Monday, not enough to recalculate the room available down to 1.3260 before signaling a new downleg underway.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s retracement of Thursday’s surge all but confirmed that the recent low must be retested. Monday’s reaction up held 1675.00 resistance to prevent buyers from regaining traction.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Holding 30.25 as support Friday had prevented a new downleg from forming. It also kept open the door for Monday’s gap up to 31.00, where the balance of the session ranged. closing back under 30.50 would signal another recovery attempt had failed.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Gapping up above the 145-16 resistance did not extend higher intraday. But neither was it rejected, leaving potential for extending higher up to 147-00 if 145-16 support isn’t broken immediately.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Early testing of 94.25 resistance Monday was retraced back under prior highs. The close surged back to 94.25, which still isn’t a breakout, but any immediate strength Tuesday morning would be credible for extending higher.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The bounce extended to test 3.37-3.44 before refueling buyers back down to 3.20, making that dip likelier next, even if only to 3.25.

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