Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Weekends always offer clarity, so it was interesting how this one was greeted. Trending that was underway extended slightly, but not enough to suggest last-minute positioning ahead of the weekend’s illiquidity. That suggests any initial trending Monday would be credible for extending into the week.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Gapping up above prior highs Friday did not extend higher intraday. Two consecutive sessions of gapping up must extend higher aggressively Monday to avoid a deep pullback.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The only way to extend lower Friday from Thursday’s drop was to gap down, which Friday’s open did, but then did not extend lower intraday. Again. The trend nevertheless remains down.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The recovery extended higher Friday to test 1739.40. Back under 1724.00 would trigger another attempt to test 1700.00, which would be unlikely to hold as support.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s higher highs were the highest in weeks, continuing the ouperformance vs. Gold. Back under 32.25 would signal momentum reversing down.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) A pullback to 150-10 was not even attempted Friday as an overnight flight-to-safety encouraged gapping up to fresh highs at 152-08. Its reaction down intraday to 151-00 did not gain traction, and has potential for testing 152-16.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s shock to the system from 89.22 down to 84.00 that was absorbed Wednesday and Thursday, was also retraced Friday up to 86.77. No relevant resistance was recovered, bug closing above 86.50 would be likely to add a quick $3, while closing under 85.35 would likely lose $3.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s retest of Tuesday’s late surge to 3.61 had every opportunity to extend higher into and out of the weekend. Instead, it reacted by gapping down to 3.53 prior lows Friday — and this time, extending to fresh lows at 3.48. A second consecutive lower close Monday would confirm the downtrend has resumed.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight With little exception, Thursday’s markets were volatile. With little exception, that volatility was all contained within their recent ranges. Bonds extended their rally, while Natural Gas and Gold threatened to start one.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Despite gapping up to a new high Thursday, the rally did not trend higher intraday. Neither was it retraced. Extending the rally Friday all but requires gapping up again, where there would still be risk of reversing down before noon. Otherwise, the 82.10 target remains in-play.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s gap down to a new low did not trend down any further intraday, and it wasn’t retraced. Not extending down without further delay would risk being rejected sharply higher into and out of the weekend. The 1.2400 target otherwise remains intact.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s retest of 1717.00 extended back up to Wednesday’s ~1730.00 intraday high. A more credible bottom would have retested 1700.00 first, but a rally could be underway into and out of the weekend unless rejected almost immediately Friday.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s recovery back up to Wednesday’s test of 32.25 could extend higher without there being any requirement to test lower levels first. But almost any delay in extending higher Friday would keep the door open to resuming the decline into and out of the weekend.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) No pullback intervened after Wednesday’s gap up. So Thursday gapped up, too. And into the 30-year auction, no less. Gapping back down to 150-10 would form an Island Reversal that could extend down much further. Otherwise, an intraday dip down to 150-10 would likely hold as support and then recover.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Wednesday’s new low was not rejected Thursday, and Wednesday’s steep, deep intraday drop was consolidated. The 82.00 target remains intact.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s gap down to 3.54 was just above last Friday’s prior low, and within the interim range. Sellers gained no traction for the effort and left no unfinished business below. In fact, the balance of the session trended back up to Tuesday afternoon’s false break higher, presumably preparing to extend higher into and out of the weekend.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The election is history, and now price action can be based on more known quantities. As was expected, rallies in Gold and Crude Oil were used for absorbing selling pressure without it damaging the chart. Bottoms should develop soon, if at all.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s test of 80.75 resistance got a second chance Wednesday to break higher and put into play 82.10. It was broken, and 82.10 remains in-play so long as 80.75 were to hold as support.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Fresh lows under 1.2775 extended down to nearly 1.2740, fulfilling the Friday-Monday setup. A lower close would confirm that 1.2400 is in-play, which back above 1.2850 would invalidate.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s test of 1717.00 resistance had held, but higher highs overnight touched 1733.00. That held, too, triggering a drop down to 1703.00, which is $3 short of the 1700.00 objective. Its test remains likely so long as 1717.00 isn’t recovered.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s test of 32.25 resistance was retraced down to almost 31.20. The reaction up to 31.70 should fail since its origin was 10-15 cents too high.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s reaction down from Monday’s test of the 149-12 target used nearly all of its room down to 148-00. But not closing any lower left the potential for retesting 149-12. In fact, Wednesday’s open gapped up to fresh highs and tested 150-18. Closing above 150-16 would target 152-16. A close under 149-04 is needed to reverse momentum down.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Having met and held a test of the 89.00 corrective bounce target, with a requirement outstanding to test fresh lows, Wednesday’s $3-1/2 plunge did retest prior lows. But no bottom formed, remaining vulnerable if not likely to probing fresh lows down to 82.00.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) edit

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Pre-election jitters, or early celebration, depending upon your perspective. Gold and Crude Oil surged Tuesday without any economic reports and while the Euro only firmed. This suggests those markets were looking forward to the election being over. But they may really be getting ready to absorb negative knee-jerk reactions Wednesday. Natural Gas did firm a little, perhaps in anticipation of a change in the status quo.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s second consecutive higher close was not the product of intraday trending, inhibiting Tuesday from trending further. But a fresh high should follow.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s second consecutive lower close left something to be desired for not trending downward intraday. But Tuesday’s gap up was impatient at that stage. Fresh lows under 1.2775 remain likely, presumably on the way to 1.2400.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s gap up to 1690.00 was barely corrected before extending sharply higher to test 1721.00. The 1717.00 resistance held. Back under 1700.00 would target a retest of Friday’s 1675.00-1676.00 lows.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s gap up above Monday’s 31.10 close was retraced deeply enough to nearly fill the gap before extending sharply higher to test 32.25. A pullback to 31.30-31.35 is likely, and would be required to hold if a much deeper downleg can be avoided.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Recovering to close back above 148-00 Friday made the 149-12 target’s test likely. It was fulfilled at Monday’s open and the balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways. Tuesday’s open gapped down and slid back to 148-00, still not signaling trending in either direction.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Monday’s early morning fresh low at 84.35 did not repeat intraday as the prior week’s 84.65 low held its retest.Tuesday’s gap up above 86.50 eventually extended to fresh highs above 89.00. Back under 87.70 would signal the rally had peaked, probably to be retraced down to 86.40.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) edit

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Between Friday’s Employment Situation report and the weekend’s impending illiquidity, intraday action moved price aggressively. The long-bond’s corrective bounce continued reacting down aggressively, as did Gold. Even currencies seemed to shake their ongoing ranges.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s strength did extend higher to its 80.37 target Friday. In fact, the open gapped up there, and then surged to test fresh highs at 80.75. A second consecutive higher close — which usually follows a break higher on Fridays — would target 82.10, so long as 80.30 holds as support.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s reaction to the Employment Situation report plunged through 1.2900 and through it to test 1.2840. A second consecutive lower close Monday would confirm a new downleg underway targeting 1.2400.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The corrective bounce up to 1727.00 that closed Thursday back at or under 1717.00 extended down sharply Friday to test 1675.00. That threatens the potential for this drop from 1800.00 to be only a correction, unless 1704.00 were recovered without delay. Otherwise, closing under 1673.00 would target 1605.00-1610.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The corrective bounce never fulfilled its potential up to 33.00 before reversing down sharply Friday to 30.82. Closing under 30.75 Monday would confirm a bigger downleg underway targeting 28.15-28.55, but closing above 31.50 would signal that a significant corrective drop had likely ended.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The reaction down from nearly touching the 149-12 bounce target plunged 1 point Friday to 147-18. It was retraced to back above 148-00, which continues to avoid signaling a bigger downleg underway — while also leaving potential to retest 149-12.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Although firming to close above 87.00 Thursday suggested 89.00 would be tested before resuming the decline, the decline may have resumed already by falling Friday down to test 85.00. That is essentially the two-week old “pivotal low” that preceded last Monday’s 84.66 actual low, all but requiring a new low — presumably the 81.85-82.50 target.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Multiple consecutive sessions of testing the 3.70 prior low without yet recovering required at least an obligatory low. Friday fulfilled the setup by sliding down to 3.53. Back above 3.70 would signal momentum reversing up. Otherwise, a second consecutive lower close Monday — which this market tends to do following a break close on Fridays — would confirm a bigger downleg underway.

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