Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s long-outstanding target was met at Wednesday’s gap down. Can currencies continue their recent runs while Gold retraces?

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s “ineffectual optimism” would be bearish if not resolved higher immediately. Wednesday’s open did gap up slightly above Tuesday’s 80.08 high and extended to fresh highs at 80.41. Now extending the trend requires holding 79.80 as support.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday’s close was reacting down from probing into Sunday night’s 1.2965-1.2990 opening range as resistance. The open wasn’t much lower than that, so the interim intraday dip to fresh lows may have been absorbed. Gapping up Thursday above 1.2990 would be credible for testing 1.3040 before resuming the decline. The trend otherwise remains down and targeting a test 1.2850.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s open immediately tested the 1584.00 target down to 1578.00, then bounced back to 1596.00. Quickly filling the gap back to Tuesday’s close at 1604.50 would be likely to resume the decline. Otherwise, closing above 1610.50 would target 1630.50.

Silver Jun Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Gapping down Wednesday tested new lows at 28.70. The balance of the session rallied, but never recovered positive territory. The open’s 28.65 gap must be retested, even if 30.00 resistance were tested first.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tumbling stocks + sovereign credibility = bond rally. So, Wednesday’s open gapped up and probed a new high at 145-08. Its complete retracement into negative territory at 144-06 held Tuesday’s late low as support. Under 143-30 would trigger a deeper pullback to 142-30, but not necessarily a downleg.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday had already fulfilled the requirement to repeat Sunday night’s test of 95.50. Wednesday’s fresh low was redundant. Closing above 97.45 would target 100.75, and possibly 104.00. Any further delay to recovering would be likely to extend down to 91.85.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The pattern’s 2.50 target was met Wednesday. Extending the rally to 2.68 depends upon holding any test of 2.40 as support.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold tumbled to new lows that fulfilled its next objective, while Crude Oil fulfilled the retest of Sunday night’s low. These may form bottoms here, but I wouldn’t trust a rally that suddenly turned up on a dime. The Natural Gas surge to new recovery highs is much more credible for extending.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) New highs at 80.05 Tuesday was retraced back to the 79.80 opening print, and back under Monday morning’s 79.87 high. Buyers gained no traction for their efforts. But a pullback would have room down to 79.70 before the rally would lose its traction.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s 1.2984 low still recovered back above 1.3010 to avoid confirming a much bigger drop underway. But closing under 1.3000 Wednesday would still qualify. Otherwise, a bigger corrective bounce would target 1.3115-1.3120.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s gap down from having held 1644.00 resistance extended sharply lower to fulfill the outstanding 1617.00 objective. It was even probed below 1600.00. A second consecutive lower close under 1617.00 would confirm the decline’s next objective at 1584.00 is in-play. Otherwise, closing above 1617.00 Wednesday could extend to test higher prior lows at 1632.00.

Silver Jun Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Gapping down to new lows Tuesday at 29.55 and extending to new lows at 29.14 still recovered almost back to the 29.55 open. There continues to be no buy signal for this pattern.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Sunday night’s test to within 1 tick of the 144-20 target all but required a retest, despite having been retraced entirely Monday back to unchanged at 143-18. Monday night’s falling stocks encouraged fresh highs up to 144-27. Now a break back under 144-02 would signal this rally leg had ended, and closing under 143-22 would signal momentum reversing down. There is otherwise potential for extending higher up to 146-28.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Sunday night’s low had met and held the 95.50 target. The requirement to retest it intraday was fulfilled Tuesday to within 2 cents. Opening Wednesday above 97.95 would trigger a bigger corrective bounce targeting 100.75 and potentially 104.00. There is otherwise no buy signal.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Price action continued to acknowledge the 2.30 pullback limit. Tuesday’s open gapped under it, ranged around it, and then surged to new recovery highs that fulfilled the 2.44 target. The next higher objective remains 2.50, now so long as 2.40 holds as support.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight European election fallout helped currencies to extend their recent trending, while taking the long bond and Crude Oil to their targets.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Gapping up from Friday’s 79.60 close tested 80.10 resistance Sunday night. Price dipped from there into Monday afternoon, retracing almost all gains. Closing above 79.75 Tuesday would confirm a much bigger rally is underway.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Sunday night’s gap open under 1.3050 extended down sharply to support at 1.2955. A recovery to 1.3050 by early morning was probed higher and higher through the afternoon. Closing under 1.3010 Tuesday would confirm a much bigger drop is underway.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) There wasn’t much reaction to Sunday’s elections and to the Euro’s rout. There didn’t need to be. Gapping down Monday under 1644.00 was enough to confirm that Friday’s buyers gained no traction for their efforts. The 1638.00 sell signal was still being tested at the close. A downleg may be premature before a temporary intraday rally fills the gap back to Friday’s 1644.50 close.

Silver Jun Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Fresh lows intraday down to 29.70 still recovered to end the day testing the 30.00 sell signal. It is difficult to give sellers any credibility, but there is no active buy signal.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The flight-to-safety amid Sunday night’s falling stocks initially rallied to within 1 tick of the 144-20 target. All gains were retraced to 143-18. Sunday night’s high should be retested so long as pullbacks hold 143-08.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The next lower target at 95.50 was tested early Sunday evening on the open’s $3 dive. It was almost entirely recovered, but not into positive territory. Sunday night’s 96.95 opening print should be retested before any rally can be credible.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Friday’s redundant close under the 2.30 pullback limit was rejected again by gapping up above it. It held through the day, although price never extended higher. But it does keep alive potential to resume and extend the rally, next targeting 2.44 and 2.50.

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Today’s Highlight The long bond probed fresh highs after Friday’s Employment Situation report. It could be the start of something big, if it isn’t already the end of something small.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The volatile reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report was recovered to fresh highs testing 79.60. Almost any higher close Monday would target 80.35-80.40.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s volatile reaction to the Employment Situation report ultimately resoved down, probing under Thursday’s overnight low to test 1.3085. It may be further probed down to 1.3065. But closing under 1.3050 would signal a much bigger drop underway.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Fresh lows overnight probed 1627.00, but Thursday’s 1631.30 low was recovered at Friday’s open. The recovery extended to test Monday and Wednesday’s “higher prior lows” at 1645.00-1646.00. Although the 1638.00 bounce limit failed to hold, breaking under it Monday would be credible for resuming the decline to 1617.00 since Friday’s bounce essentially held 1644.00 resistance.

Silver Jun Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s probe under the 30.00 area’s prior low wasn’t entirely rejected through the close. Friday’s open extended higher temporarily without gaining traction. Closing under 30.00 would still resume the decline.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) A blip-down that attacked the 142-10 sell signal was absorbed by the Employment Situation report’s negative surprise, reversing to new relative highs at 143-25. I have ahd no active buy signal, but a second consecutive higher close would confirm the breakout, targeting 144-20.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The reaction down from 105.25‘s false breakout extended down sharply Friday to 97.50. And that’s probably not the end of it. A correction has room up to 100.40 without sellers losing traction, and back to 102.10 before buyers gain traction. Otherwise, the next lower target is 95.50.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Friday’s weak open soon slipped under 2.30, which needed to hold as support to maintain the pattern’s bullish potential. Its test Wednesday was recovered already, so probing it again Friday is not helpful to the recovery. The close was still testing 2.30, so any initial trending Monday would be credible for extending in that direction.

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Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s pullback extended into a reversal, disappointing Tuesday’s unconfirmed breakout. The pattern is not yet bearish, although there’s nothing bullish about failing to exploit a breakout. Meanwhile, Gold is just one lower close away from confirming new lows are in-play.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The required probe above Wednesday’s 79.40 high was quickly retraced just under Wednesday’s low to 79.15. The balance of the session ranged narrowly around unchanged. That action is not very revealing of direction, but it does reflect the ability to react, which is very interesting ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation Report.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday fulfilled both its room for a corrective bounce to 1.3200, and its potential for gapping down otherwise. But not in that order. The open gapped down sharply to 1.3183, and reacted up to 1.1300. But the majority of the session settled in to the 1.3145-1.3160 range. A second consecutive lower close under 1.3185 would have been more bearish to close under 1.3145. But a bounce should be absorbed nonetheless.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s gap down to prior lows slid through its 1644.00 objective to test and retest 1632.00. The decline has resumed, next targeting 1617.00, so long as bounces hold any test of 1638.00.

Silver Jun Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) There was no delay Thursday in extending down from the repeated testing of 31.05 and 30.65. New lows at 29.83 ended the day testing 30.00. The trend remains down so long as 30.65 continues holding as ressitance.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday morning’s dive held a test of 142-10, bouncing optimistically instead of dipping slightly lower to fill the gap back down to Tuesday’s 142-05 close. Its recovery to 143-00 gained no traction, and any new test of 142-10 is likely to probe sharply lower — closing under 141-20 would confirm a much larger downleg underway. There is no active buy signal, but that does not preclude there being a very favorable reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation Report.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s open did not immediately reject or retrace any of Wednesday’s pullback. The 105.25 level failed to hold, and 102.75 support was probed intraday. The minimum requirement to reversing momentum up is to close above 103.75-1.04.00, which is otherwise resistance.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Wednesday’s close under 2.30 was rejected by Thursday’s open gapping up to it and through it. Tuesday’s prior highs were retested, keeping in-play 2.44 and 2.50 so long as 2.30 holds as support.

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