Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday was already retraced before Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement to fill the gap back down to Tuesday’s 1.2235 close. Perhaps neutralizing its attraction enabled the favorable knee-jerk reaction up. Surging to 1.2405 also tested the 1.2390 bounce limit, which held to continue suggesting the downside momentum remains intact. Closing above 1.2410 would suggest otherwise.

Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Stopping short of the actual 1305.00 low had bounced Tuesday, and firmed further Wednesday ahead of the FOMC policy statement, then extended even higher. The original 1325.50 sell signal was tested as resistance, and must be rejected without further delay to reinstate the downside momentum.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s bounce from fresh lows had not recovered relevant resistance, but Wednesday’s open gapped up and reacted favorably to the FOMC policy statement. Closing at or around 16.40 almost invalidates the downside momentum, which can be reinstated easily Thursday.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
the knee-jerk reaction to Wednesday’s FOMC statement spiked up to 144-04 before collapsing to support at 143-04 down to 143-00. Closing under 143-16 would target 142-00, tentatively, still needing confirmation from a second consecutive lower close Thursday. Otherwise, recovering 144-04 Thursday would resume the rally.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending higher Wednesday to test 64.05 confirms Tuesday’s breakout close, next targeting 65.00 so long as 62.70 now holds as support.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up slightly Wednesday to test 2.73 was reversed back down to Monday’s lows under 2.66, and still presumably on the way down to 2.62 or lower.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
[Rolling coverage forward to Jun which trades at a 90-pip discount from Mar ]… Monday’s bounce back up to 1.2445 “higher prior lows” held, which Tuesday’s gap down exploited by opening at Friday’s 1.2370 close. Extending down to fresh lows through the day essentially confirms the trend remains down.

Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s bounce was too shallow to invalidate Friday’s break, which Tuesday morning exploited by trending down under Friday’s lows. Prior lows down to 1305.00 may still offer support, but it should be just a formality to signal 1291.50 is in-play.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s bounce was too shallow to invalidate Friday’s break, which Tuesday morning exploited by trending down under Friday’s lows. The nearest bounce limit can be lowered from 16.40 to 16.35.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s gap down to 144-00 support was recovered to probe positive territory, but closed  essentially flat. Tuesday’s gap down to Monday’s 143-26 open ranged sideways narrowly. The rally has little excuse to further delay resuming, and to avoid extending the pullback down to 143-16.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward to May which trades at a 55-cent discount from Apr]… Monday’s intraday dip to “lower prior highs” at 60.70 was recovered to close just under the 61.85 buy signal. Tuesday’s open surged through it and extended to prior highs 62.80. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm 65.00 is in-play.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s break under 2.70 support was recovered into Tuesday’s open, hardly fulfilling the minimum 2.65 downside objective, let alone attacking it. But it remains in-play and outstanding, nonetheless.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up a little Monday on news of a Brexit breakthrough still stopped short of the 1.2330 sell signal that was triggered last week, and whose recovery would suggest another bounce underway.

Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness was retraced Monday to test the 1319.00 signal that had triggered last week to resume the decline. Although the structure containing the 1305.00 gap back down to the lows was tested, the gap itself wasn’t yet filled, which is likelier before a rally can develop — so long as bounces hold 1319.00. And its break would target 1291.50.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s bounce corrected Friday’s portion of the drop under 16.40, and should be sufficient for the decline to resume if that’s its intent, before actually recovering 16.40.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight lows were already testing downtrending support at 144-00 before Monday’s open. Gapping down to the trendline held its test down to 143-27 and quickly reversed up nearly 1 point to probe positive territory. Last week’s confirmed breakout still requires at least one more higher close.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Opening back under 62.25 Monday soon collapsed to “lower prior highs” at 61.35, which had been the bounce limit. It was also a test of 51.50 whose break through the close would have been a sell signal, but it was recovered to test 62.25 as resistance into the afternoon.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not until after Monday’s open did price spike through 2.70, presumably on its way to fulfilling the minimum lower objective at 2.62. The delayed start reflects an ever-present ineffectual optimism that — from a contrarian perspective — can help to push even lower.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s close under the 1.2330 sell signal extended down Friday to fresh relative lows at 1.2260. The bounce limit can be lowered from 1.2345 to the 1.2330 sell signal, although sponsorship at this stage of the break wouldn’t benefit from interim bouncing.

Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Although not deteriorating overnight, Friday’s gap up held resistance at 1320.00 which was broken Thursday to renew the 1325.50 sell signal, extending down quickly under 1310.00 to attack the 1305.00 minimum objective.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing at 16.40 Thursday instead of under it didn’t prevent extending down sharply anyway Friday to 16.20. There’s no bullish reason for the pattern to have retrace again to its prior lows.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh highs overnight up to 145-11 were retraced into Friday’s open, which probed negative territory down to 144-08 to try avoiding the confirmed breakout’s requirement for at least another eventual higher close. It also further defines a compelling Rounding Bottom pattern.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday began by ranging even narrower than Thursday’s session, at or under the 61.35 bounce limit. Surging late-morning attacked the 62.50 buy signal. Just closing above 62.25 makes the 61.35 bounce limit less likely to retrace, or to resume the decline.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Any momentum behind Thursday and Friday’s breaks was greeted by anxiousness into Friday morning. That’s not rejecting their dip to relevant support, which suggests the relevant support will break lower as expected.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Dipping again Thursday tested the 1.2330 sell signal, which is credible for extending so long as 1.2345 holds as resistance.

Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Ranging sideways Wednesday didn’t confirm Tuesday’s favorable knee-jerk reaction to CPI, which had held the original 1325.50 sell signal as resistance. Dropping sharply Thursday broke under 1320.00 targeting a retest of the 1305.00 area lows and then 1291.50.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s ranging had failed to exploit Tuesday’s bounce above 16.50-16.55, which didn’t help to prevent Thursday’s slide to 16.40 support. But not through ti, which is still needed to confirm the drop has resumed.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-higher ranging overnight still needs to close positive Thursday to confirm a breakout, and essentially create a compelling rounded bottom. Price action into the afternoon was continually returning to unchanged, making confirmation elusive.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fluctuating Thursday between the 61.35 bounce limit and Wednesday’s 60.90 close maintained the downside momentum, but a break under the 60.25 prior low can’t be delayed much longer if the resolution is down.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Reaction to Thursday’s EIA report finally broke under 2.74. So long as it’s not rejected by closing back above 2.81, the pullback is targeting at least 2.62 — and potentially deeper, especially after having delayed the pullback for so long.