Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
After gapping down at the open, Tuesday’s close had recovered back up to Monday’s lows. Still overlapping Monday’s lower-end kept alive potential for filling the gap at its upper-end. Flat overnight ranging nevertheless resolved down sharply through Wednesday’s open. And it extended down into the afternoon testing 1.2385. A second consecutive lower close under 1.2445 Thursday would reverse the trend down. Otherwise, closing back above 1.2445 and preferably higher would end the corrective dip.

Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Tuesday had managed to close at or above 1341.00 support. Wednesday broke lower to test the next two supports at 1335.50 and 1325.50. That’s a lot of selling pressure to expend between closes, which doesn’t gain traction for the effort. Closing back above 1335.50 would signal that the pullback had ended. Otherwise, closing lower Thursday would all but reinstate 1291.50.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing at 16.50 Tuesday avoided triggering its sell signal there, and also required breaking under 16.40 for confirmation. Wednesday did trend down, probing under 16.40 to 16.25. A bounce has room up to 16.50 but closing back above 16.55 would signal momentum reversing up.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s break above 145-04 extended higher Wednesday morning to 146-10. Reacting down intraday to 145-28 still has room to 145-16 without invalidating the upside momentum.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Hovering for a couple of days at the highs doesn’t invalidate upside momentum, but it does suggest that extending higher requires a pullback before extending to the 66.88 target. Wednesday’s dip tested the 64.64 pullback limit down to  63.70. Closing back above 64.64 would be optimal for isolating the test, or at least rallying early Thursday.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuedsay’s recovery to 2.70-2.71 resistance didn’t extend higher Wednesday,  keeping alive the likelihood that its corrective bounce is ending and that the 2.62 low will be broken more aggressively on the way down to 2.52.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s close above 1.2515 prior highs was almost rejected by Tuesday’s gap down under the 1.2480 prior low. But that created a gap back up to Monday’s 1.2530 close, and recovering to close above 1.2480 remains in proximity to filling the gap back up to Monday’s close. Otherwise, closing under 1.2445 would trigger a much deeper reversal down.

Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
It’s premature for gapping down Tuesday to reverse the past week’s rally. That has only created a gap back up to Monday’s 1354.50 close that will want to be filled. However, filling the gap above near-term would remain likely so long as 1341.00 now holds as support.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing above 16.65 Monday still needs to recover 16.80 to confirm a new uptrend underway. But like past recent recovery attempts, the upside attempt has been met by gapping down. A sell signal is premature, but not recovering 16.65 Wednesday would start to suggest the next significant leg is down.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Another overnight probe under 144-22 — which was a little simpler since Monday’s close was still overlapping it — was followed by another recovery back into the 144-22/145-04 range. Closing beyond either end of the range is likely to extend in that direction, and that resolution is still likelier to be up.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday and Tuesday’s sessions have both ranged narrowly, and both blipped-up momentarily to attack or to pierce 66.00. Not already rejecting the fresh highs makes higher highs likely, presumably to fulfill the next higher objective outstanding at 66.88.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The bounce from fulfilling the 2.62 objective extended Tuesday to test 2.70, which is essentially the bounce limit to maintain the downside momentum that is otherwise next targeting 2.52.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s close above the 1.2410-1.2425 bounce limit had coincided with downtrending resistance. Monday’s open gapped up through it and trended sharply higher intraday to 1.2535. Upside momentum remains intact so long as 1.2480 holds as support.

Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Flat-to-lower ranging Sunday night resolved up Monday to probe fresh recovery highs at 1358.00 filled the 5-week old gap at 1354.00. Momentum remains up so long as 1347.00 now holds as support.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Monday was initially resisted by Friday’s test of 16.65, but it eventually broke higher. Its reaction down held 16.65 as support to maintain the rally’s momentum.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Recovering to close back above 144-22 again Monday after Sunday night’s retest of Friday’s lows further suggests that the 144-22/145-04 range’s upper-end will still be broken before a durable break lower can develop.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday already fulfilled the confirmed breakout’s minimum requirement for an eventual higher close. The upside momentum next targeting 64.88 remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 64.64 as support.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The long-awaited 2.62 target was finally touched Friday, and its shallow reaction up extended Monday to 2.67. This should be the bounce’s peak before resuming the decline to 2.52, which remains likely since so much optimism preceded the eventual first objective’s test.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Friday above the 1.2410 bounce limit that had held Thursday, was extended intraday to 1.2445 where closing any higher would target the gap above at 1.2460. Back under 1.2390 would resume the decline.

Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Holding 1325.50 as support Thursday allowed trending higher overnight to probe Wednesday’s FOMC reaction high. Gapping up Friday above the prior 5 weeks’ highs is now targeting a gap fill at 1355.00-1357.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s pullback to 16.40 was still being tested through the close, so not necessarily recovered. Firming overnight extended intraday to pierce Wednesday’s post-FOMC peak at 16.65 resistance.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 144-22 rock and 145-04 hard place was trying to break lower into Friday’s open. Gapping down to 144-06 was recovered back into the range, pausing pessimistically short of filling the gap back up to Thursday’s 144-28 close.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Having held the 64.25 pullback limit Thursday, the rally could resume to fulfill its minimum requirement for at least one more higher close. Friday’s gap up extended to fresh highs testing 65.65, potentially fulfilling its minimum requirement.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The longstanding 2.62 objective was finally fulfilled by Friday’s gap down that extended slightly lower. Slightly lower, and then no lower, as the session ranged narrowly, hovering optimistically above 2.62. That behavior continues to suggest that 2.62 will be broken on the way down to 2.52.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Holding Wednesday’s bounce at the 1.2390-1.2410 bounce limit didn’t prevent probing higher overnight to test 1.2465. But that excess had disappeared by Thursday’s open, which extended back down intraday to 1.2365. Closing any lower would confirm the corrective bounce had ended, so long as 1.2390-1.2410 continues to hold as resistance.

Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Rallying ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC news and extending sharply higher after it as nonetheless retraced to test 1325.50 at Thursday’s low. At least closing back under it was needed to reinstate the downside momentum. Now closing back under 1319.00 is the nearest signal.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing sharply higher into and out of and after Wednesday’s FOM events was retraced back down Thursday to test 16.40 down to 16.33. Just closing under 16.55 prevents launching a new upleg, and allows another close under 16.40 to resume the decline.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Ending Wednesday’s volatility at 143-16 continued to prevent sellers from gaining traction for their third consecutive daily effort. Gapping up more than 1 point Thursday through Monday’s 144-20 close was the consequence. It extended to probe last week’s 145-06 highs intraday, but the resistance held. Its reaction down to “lower prior highs” at 144-22 also held. Closing beyond either end of that range is likely to extend in that direction.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Confirming Tuesday’s breakout Wednesday now requires at least an eventual third higher close. Meanwhile, testing 65.00 created potential for reacting down. The 64.25 pullback limit was tested, with room down to 62.70 before undermining the near-term likelihood of resuming the rally to 66.85.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s reversal extended down slightly deeper Thursday. The behavior can’t yet be considered “ineffectual optimism” for approaching its 2.62 target with such a slow pace, but it doesn’t contradict the ongoing likelihood for breaking through it by at least a dime.