Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s bounce was formally rejected by Thursday’s gap down which probed deeper intraday. Any lower close would confirm the trend remains down. Only ranging sideways Friday would be more difficult to extend.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness enabled a gap down Thursday to 1332.00, filling the gap back to Tuesday’s close. Closing lower Friday would reinstate the downleg targeting 1295.00 and lower.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing lower to 16.15 Thursday morning reacted back up into positive territory, attacking 16.40 whose recovery would undermine the week’s drop, and avoiding a lower close Thursday that would have confirmed the trend already reversing down.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Room for the pullback to extend down to the 145-00 area was exploited already overnight down to 144-27, which was retested later Thursday morning. So, price has reversed as much as is possible without yet reversing momentum down, just ahead of a reliable catalyst in Friday’s Employment Situation report. Notwithstanding an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down, not yet reversing back up Friday would suggest the pullback is extending much more deeply.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s recovery had only filled the gap back up to Tuesday’s close, without closing higher to confirm momentum had reversed up. Thursday’s fluctuation around Wednesday and Tuesday’s close doesn’t yet make the pattern any less vulnerable to retesting the 62.62 pullback limit. But any early strength Friday would be credible for extending higher into the weekend, confirmed by closing above 64.25.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t greeted from a position of weakness, and its reaction down back to 2.65 still needs a second consecutive lower close on Friday to be reliable as the downleg that retests the recent 2.62 low down to 2.52.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s reaction up held a test of 1.2365 whose recovery would reverse momentum up, and leave no unfinished business below since Tuesday’s fresh low close already fulfilled it. The trend otherwise remains down.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Wednesday to retest 1348.00 up to 1352.50 was reversed back down to 1339.00, whose break would start to signal the recent rally had failed and momentum is reversing down. Not following-through Thursday could marginalize sellers to allow another rally leg.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up slightly was reversed back down to and through 16.40 to 16.28. A second consecutive lower close on Thursday would confirm the recent rally had failed, and that fresh lows are in-play.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The gap back up to Monday’s 146-26 close was only attacked Wednesday up to 146-18 before testing Tuesday’s lows down to 145-18. A pullback still has room down to the 145-00 area while still being likely to recover and at least fill the gap back to 146-26 .

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s gap down under 62.50 and test of 62.05 doesn’t require being retested, despite being left outstanding after recovering back above the 62.62 pullback limit. Having said that, only filling the gap back up to Tuesday’s ~63.45 close without closing higher can’t afford to hesitate extending the recovery Thursday.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending the bounce back above 2.70 to 2.74 was retraced a little before Wednesday’s close, enough to avoid greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength, but not to be in a position of weakness.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s failed bounce extended down deeper Tuesday morning to probe fresh lows. Meanwhile, the required eventual third lower close was fulfilled. But the trend remains down so long as bounces now hold 1.2365.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up and surging Monday was somewhat retraced overnight, but the 1339.00 reversal signal wasn’t probed until mid-morning, and then resisted a bounce into the afternoon. A second consecutive lower close on Wednesday would be optimal confirmation that the decline has resumed.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Pulling back overnight held 16.50 but extended down Tuesday to test the 16.40 sell signal. It was still being overlapped into the afternoon, requiring another decisive close under it Wednesday to trigger.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Two eventual higher closes had more than fulfilled the recent confirmed breakout’s minimum requirement, but Tuesday’s open created a gap back up to Monday’s close that will want to be filled eventually, and would meanwhile inhibit a reversal down.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s deeper dip wasn’t immediately recovered Tuesday, but neither did it extend down. The pullback still has room down to 62.62 while awaiting a recovery back above 64.25 that would target 66.88.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday did not immediately resume Monday morning’s dive and instead bounced to test 2.70 resistance. The downtrending support that was still being tested at Monday’s close wasn’t decisively recovered, but neither did it hold as resistance.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Monday was retraced entirely to fill the bap back down to Thursday’s 1.2375 low close and to test Thursday’s 1.2350 intraday low. There’s already a confirmed breakout, requiring at least an eventual third lower close.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s rally eventually did extend enough for its gap up to 1339.00 and intraday rally to fill the gap back up to last Tuesday’s 1349.50 close. Back under 1339.00 would resume the decline.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up to 16.40 and probing above it Monday extended through 16.50-16.55 to leave another gap outstanding back down to Thursday’s 16.27 close. Back under 16.40 would put it back into play.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
An overnight dip greeted the open testing the 146-02 pullback limit, but only briefly before reversing back up and extending to fresh highs testing 147-00. Extending to 147-18 no requires pullbacks to hold 146-08 as support.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s recovery filled the gap back up to last Tuesday’s 65.25 close, which Monday’s open exploited by reversing down sharply through the 64.64 pullback limit to 62.95. And there’s room down to 62.62 before suggesting a deeper detour from the 66.88 objective is underway.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up above the 2.70 bounce limit Thursday wasn’t a buy signal, and kept the door open to resuming the decline if done aggressively. Monday’s open plunged down to 2.68 and 2.65, closing at or under downtrending resistance to  to suggest the decline has resumed, targeting fresh lows at 2.52.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s break extended down Thursday to 1.2355, and a second consecutive lower close confirms the 1.2445 sell signal, and its potential down to 1.2245, or at least to produce one more lower close.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
[Rolling coverage forward to Jun, which trades at a 3.50 premium to Apr]… Not exploiting Wednesday’s closing test of 1329.00 support doesn’t prevent rallying out of the weekend, and eventually filling the gap outstanding from Monday’s 1360.00 close. But it does all but require exiting the weekend in rally mode.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s flat and narrow ranging didn’t reject Wednesday’s break under 16.40. But neither did it confirm the break. The sell signal remains valid so long as it a reaction up doesn’t recover 16.50.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Interim weakness easily held its pullback limit for fresh highs Thursday testing 146-23. The trend remains up so long as 146-02 now holds as support. But there is no requirement for another higher close.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
A brief deeper dip to 63.60 still recovered back up to the 64.64 pullback limit Thursday, and then extended higher to probe 65.00, still targeting 66.88.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming overnight into Thursday’s gap up wasn’t rejected intraday. Its probe above 2.70 resistance touched 2.76. Having probed above the optimal bounce limit. Aggressively resuming the decline is the most credible path down.