Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Another fresh recovery high Tuesday at 1.2050 was reversed to test the uptrending pivotal support emanating from the recent pullback low at 1.1745. Dipping back under 1.2015 would likely test 1.1945, and probably also retrace the entire recovery leg.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming Tuesday morning helped to confirm the relevance of Monday having closed at 1310.50 support. But reversing the trend up was not likely to tolerate much of a delay. And the balance of the session fluctuated around 1310.50. Greeting Wednesday’s FOMC events from already closing above 1318.50 would have been much more reliably bullish.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday morning ranged flat-to-higher off of Monday’s test of 17.10 support, resisted by the 17.30 buy signal. Its recovery Tuesday would still be credible for at least filling the gap back up to Friday’s 17.70 close.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Ranging flat-to-lower through Tuesday’s noon hour had pierced Monday’s 154-04 low by only 2 ticks, while RSIs diverged positively. The 154-30 buy signal remains intact, but not greeting Wednesday afternoon’s events from the position of strength possible by already having closed above it.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Tuesday extended Monday’s reversal from completing its pullback, but stopped short of touching Thursday’s high before reversing back down into Monday’s range. A fresh high close above 50.50 is required to extend the rally, which otherwise has no “unfinished business above” preventing its reversal down.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming ahead of Tuesday’s open tried extending Monday’s rally, but the balance of the session mostly ranged narrowly sideways. In any case, the rally was not rejected, so any pullback would likely be absorbed and recovered.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday morning’s brief test of the 1.1845 pullback objective was apparently sufficient to launch a recovery. At least, more sufficient than I had assumed, because Sunday night’s open gapped up above Tuesday’s ~1.2000 high, and Monday probed higher to test 1.2025. Only slightly higher, and only temporarily, dipping back down to 1.1980. Any lower on Tuesday would target would target 1.1930 and potentially a new downleg.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Last week’s attack on the 1318.50 pullback objective had never closed above the 1334.00 buy signal. A retest of last week’s low more thoroughly tested 1318.50, and then extended deeper to test 1308.50. Closing back above 1313.00 would suggest the decline is ending, but reversing up would require closing back above 1318.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Delaying a pullback to 17.70 last week has resulted in a deeper drop this week to 17.11. An immediate reversal up by closing back above 17.30 would be credible in this pattern, while not attempting to recover until after Tuesday’s close would likely be only temporary.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite slowing the descent as prior lows were tested into the weekend, last week’s reversal seemingly resumed Monday by probing intraday down to 154-04. Now recovering 154-30 would start to signal at least a corrective bounce underway.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Monday extended the pullback underway since mid-day Thursday. The morning’s low filled the gap back to last Wednesday’s 49.25 open. Its reaction up threatened to close positive, which would form a bullish Pivot Reversal setup.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s pullback to 3.02 had no bullish excuse Monday to further delay resuming last week’s rally. The pattern would not benefit from any more backing-and-filling. Monday’s gap up above last week’s 3.10 high was a little aggressive, but trended higher intraday anyway.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Extending down Thursday and testing 1.1845 fulfilled minimum consequences for Wednesday’s failure to rally. But Friday’s gap up and intraday rally were premature for launching a durable recovery. Only a retest of the prior week’s 1.2040 gap is likely before turning back down.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Testing and retesting the 1334.00 buy signal after Thursday’s close and overnight was retraced into Friday’s open to range flat-to-lower into the weekend.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Another test of 17.70 Friday helps a close above 17.90 to at least retest the week’s high, if not also resume the rally.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-higher ranging held the week’s downtrend. But reversing ti — even if only for the purpose of completing a bearish Head & Shoulders topping pattern at 156-26 — must still recover 155-20.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Narrow, flat-to-lower ranging suggests that the rally will extend, despite Thursday having fulfilled the prior week’s confirmed breakout.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s test had filled a two-week old gap and held prior highs, so Friday’s pullback was not unusual. It held the 3.02 pullback limit to maintain potential for resuming the rally. Any lower close would have undermined the upside momentum, and under 2.95 would have all but ended the bottoming pattern.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s break lower had all but required extending down deeper to at least test 1.1845 before a recovery attempt could be credible for retesting recent highs. Its test in the wake of BOE hawkish comments and a potential N. Korea missile launch was recovered to test 1.1920, but not yet reversing momentum back up.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another lower low Wednesday had made the 1318.50 likelier to be tested before any sizable bounce. Thursday morning was well on its way there to within $1 when N. Korea missile rumors triggered a spike up to 1332.00. Having at least tested 1320.00, the pullback can be considered done if its reaction were to close above 1334.00. Otherwise, a more thorough test of 1318.50 would be likely.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Pullbacks had been too shallow to be confident that closing above 17.90 was launching at least a retest of last week’s highs, if not actually resuming the rally. Thursday was already testing 17.70, which held a retest, so that closing above 17.90 would now reverse the trend up.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Lower lows Thursday at 154-12 were quickly retraced up to 155-08 in the wake of Thursday’s N. Korea missile threat. But there was no follow-through, only narrow ranging at the trend lows, still needing to recover 155-20 to signal a bounce underway.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s close above 48.00 to resume the rally wasted no time extending, gapping up Thursday and probing fresh highs up to 50.50. Last Tuesday’s confirmed breakout has now fulfilled its minimum third higher close. The rally remains intact with potential to 52.00 and 55.00, so long as a pullback can avoid closing under 49.55.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength that would have likely recovered from a knee-jerk reaction down. Gapping down slightly held 3.04 and was reversed to fresh highs above 3.10.. Closing back under Wednesday’s 3.07 high won’t tolerate much delay in resuming the rally Friday.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday repeated Tuesday’s test of 1.1955-1.1970 support, with less success at holding it or recovering from it. Trending down into the afternoon tested 1.1875, likely to test 1.1855 before the next credible recovery attempt.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight triggered a gap up at Wednesday’s open, which was then reversed more deeply to fresh lows at 1324.50. Breaking again under the 1337.50 sell signal is now more likely to extend down to 1318.50 before a retest of recent highs would be credible, or at least credible for extending higher.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s dip to wasn’t deep enough for its recovery to 17.90 to launch a new rally leg. Wednesday’s retest of Tuesday’s low barely avoided 17.70 before bouncing back up to 17.90, still vulnerable to a deeper dip.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
After extending Monday’s pullback under 156-00 to attack 155-04 Tuesday, Wednesday slid deeper to retrace the two-week old prior low under 155-00. Back above 155-20 would trigger a bounce targeting 157-10.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already firming into Wednesday’s open was extended higher intraday to attack last week’s highs to within a nickel, targeting a new high close as required by its confirmed breakout highs, so long as 47.95 now holds as support.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday and extending through Tuesday’s 3.04 high helped to confirm that shorts were trapped by the Friday-Monday break under 2.95. Filling the gap back to the week-old 3.06 close could provide near-term resistance, so pullbacks should hold 3.02 if the recovery is intact.