Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Rallying overnight retested the 1.1225 bounce limit that had held intraday. Gapping up to it Friday extended back up to 1.1255 instead of reversing down into a new downleg, which closing back under 1.1225 would now launch.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Only reacting down intraday from Thursday’s gap up didn’t prevent rallying overnight to gap up even higher. But the same template applied, even more so being a Friday, for only reacting down intraday. Which it did, but not nearly to any degree that would confirm momentum is reversing down.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Only reacting down intraday from Thursday’s gap up didn’t prevent rallying overnight to gap up even higher. But the same template applied, even more so being a Friday, for only reacting down intraday. .

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
No further upside objective or backing-and-filling needed before breaking under 155-28 would be credible for beginning to seal a top, and eventually launching a new downleg. Friday’s narrow ranging doesn’t endorse either resolution.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Restrained optimism overnight comported with Thursday’s similar behavior, which improved slightly off Wednesday’s low close and left no gap or other “unfinished business below.” Closing above Thursday’s 43.33 high would target 44.90, and create room for a little backing-and-filling after the weekend to complete a bottom, and potentially greet next weekend in rally mode.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA reaction cleared the path for closing above 2.95 to seal a bottom. Friday’s inside day hovered under it, but didn’t trigger it, and didn’t extend the decline.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Extending the bounce to its 1.1225 is now vulnerable if not also likely to reversing down through 1.1200 to begin signaling a new downleg underway. Closing above 1.1255 would target at least a retest of recent highs.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Two days of not extending the confirmed breakout should be enough pause in the decline. Complying with this schedule would require Thursday’s gap up to reverse down immediately and possibly also relentlessly.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Rallying overnight expended all available buying pressure within the context of a two-day pause to resuming the confirmed breakout’s downtrend Thursday.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Holding the 155-28 pullback limit Wednesday helped to keep alive the 156-24 target, which was tested overnight and into Thursday’s open. It was actually tested to actually to within 1 tick, which suffices.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming Thursday off of Wednesday’s new low and avoiding another lower close is a credible start to forming a bottom. Friday would be premature to begin rallying, and would likely be reversed to retest the low.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report triggered a spike down to 2.88 prior lows. Its reaction spiked back up to test the 2.95 buy signal. Triggering it now would complete a durable bottom.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming Wednesday up to 1.1210 still has room up to 1.1225 while still being only a corrective bounce that remains likely to reverse into a new downleg.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming further Wednesday has now corrected enough for the decline to resume, yet to fulfill the confirmed breakout’s third lower close, and its next lower at objective 1235.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming further Wednesday has now corrected enough for the decline to resume, yet to fulfill the confirmed breakout’s third lower close, and its next lower at objective 16.25-16.30.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming slightly overnight stopped short of the 156-24 target before dipping Wednesday morning to touch the 155-28/155-30 pullback limit. Dipping first now allows an RSI comparison to be made while retesting the prior high on the way to fulfilling the target.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Blipping-up Wednesday morning in reaction to EIA barely touched the 44.20-44.90 bounce limit before quickly reversing down under Tuesday’s 43.00low to 42.05.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Initially firming Wednesday only touched the 2.95 bounce limit whose recovery was unlikely without a more substantial base first forming. Reacting back down to the 2.88 low is a start. Thursday’s EIA report isn’t being greeted from the position of strength that would have been reliable for launching a recovery, but rallying through the close would be credible.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Dipping further Tuesday morning still only attacked the 1.1155 sell signal. Triggering it Wednesday would be suspicious, already expending a lot of selling pressure after having only trended down since Monday’s gap up.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s lower lows confirmed Monday’s breakout from the multi-session range that had formed since Thursday’s open. At least an eventual third lower close is required, likely to include a test of “lower prior highs” at 1235.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s breakout from the two prior sessions’ ranging was confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Tuesday, next targeting 16.25-16.30.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Another test of the 155-28 bounce limit overnight was its third. This time breaking higher has made a near-term dip back to the range’s lower-end less likely., with the next higher objective being 156-24.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down to fresh lows Tuesday doesn’t greet the post close API report from a position of strength, or Wednesday morning’s EIA report. Any knee-jerk reaction up would likely resolve down to fresh lows.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s gap down under all prior lows didn’t extend Tuesday, nor was it recovered. Not yet touching last week’s “higher prior lows” makes a bottom more difficult to form before Thursday’s EIA report.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Monday touched 1.1255 resistance and reversed back down to unchanged, duplicating the distribution from the test of “higher prior lows” that already had contained Friday’s bounce. There’s no requirement to resume the decline, but the only reason to further delay it now would be to avoid it altogether.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows into Monday’s open not only extended the decline, but also resumed it from the two-day consolidation of having gapped down sharply Thursday. .Only closing back above 1259.25 would prevent this leg from extending next to 1235.00

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s break lower from having consolidated into the weekend all but confirms the current decline is targeting a test of 16.30 before a bottom can be credible.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s 61.8% retracement back up to Wednesday afternoon’s high was pierced by only 1 tick overnight, keeping alive the vulnerability to launching a new reaction down under 155-00 targeting 153-29, and potentially also its break as a larger top forms.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up slightly Monday was reversed only slightly, but that was enough to pierce Thursday’s prior low down to 44.34. Closing back above 45.29 and 45.80 would reverse the trend up.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s knee-jerk reaction to EIA had been maintained Friday, delaying its likely retracement back to last week’s 2.92 lows. The delay was compensated by gapping down Sunday night and extending to probe new lows at Monday’s open down to 2.88. Any recovery requires closing back above 2.95.