Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday had produced the required third lower close still outstanding from the prior week’s confirmed breakout. A lot of selling pressure had been expended since Wednesday morning’s surge, so Friday bounced, trying to fill the gap back up to Wednesday’s close. A durable recovery already is less likely than resolving down to probe fresh lows at 1.1100 and 1.0995.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Narrow ranging Friday morning didn’t reject Thursday’s gap down which was a reaction to the FOMC news. Closing back above 1266.25 would still reverse momentum up, but not already reversing up Monday morning would be likelier to extend the decline.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Ranging narrowly flat-to-lower Friday for a second consecutive session hasn’t altered the potential Island pattern that would have begun forming at Wednesday’s gap down. But further delaying any attempt to reject it past Monday morning would  suggest its decline will be extended.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s narrow ranging actually corrected 61.8% of Wednesday’s post-FOMC dip that had followed its pre-FOMC surge. In other words, the dip from Wednesday’s high is now corrected. That surge wasn’t confirmed, so a break back under 155-00 would target a retest of the range’s 153-29 lower-end, and probably also its reversal.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday morning firmed slightly but was contained within the narrow Wednesday-Thursday range of probing the prior Wednesday’s low. Closing above 45.65 would signal momentum reversing up, but the trend meanwhile remains lower.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s surge in reaction to the EIA report was consolidated Friday morning. Back under 3.02 to test 2.97 would help to form a durable bottom.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s spike up to the 1.1285 highs was retraced enough to greet the FOMC news back at or under 1.1255. The reaction retraced the morning’s upleg, extended down overnight, and gapped down Thursday to fresh lows testing 1.1133. While this likely fulfills the pattern’s requirement for a third lower close, it also likely launches a downleg targeting 1.1110 and 1.0995.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing the 1272.50 buy signal Wednesday had been productive enough to test 1281.00. But it originated too late to be reliable, and the FOMC reaction retraced it all. Trending lower overnight gapped down Thursday to four-week old lows under 1253.00. Unless 1266.25 were recovered, the trend is targeting 1238.00-1239.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s surge was retraced entirely after the close in reaction to the FOMC statement. Gapping down Thursday tested Tuesday’s Island at 16.70. Closing back above 17.00 would complete a Double Bottom, but the trend otherwise remains down.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Surging already to 156-05 before Wednesday’s FOMC statement was retraced to test critical support at 155-04, whose break would signal a retest of the range’s lower-end at 153-29, and probably also the range’s break lower.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s drop had filled the gap back to the prior Wednesday’s 45.29 open under all prior lows, and then closed lower. Closing lower Thursday forms a continuation pattern suggesting the decline is not yet nearing a bottom. Closing back above 46.20 would help resume the bottoming pattern.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The knee-jerk reaction to Thursday’s EIA report was a sharp rally from the new low close at 2.95 up to 3.06. Having originated from a new low close, the bounce is expected to be retraced. Meanwhile, the bounce does create extra room to expend selling pressure before it can further damage the chart, which allows for a bottom to form.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Spiking up Wednesday to retest 1.1285 resistance at the highs was retraced to 1.1255 support, which must hold to avoid quickly fulfilling the lower close already required.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Barely recovering 1268.50 Tuesday wasn’t as strong as would have been recovering 1269.50, too
spike up at Wednesday’s open through the 1272.50 buy signal extended to attack 1282.00. It wasn’t all maintained coming out of the FOMC news. But a second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm a probe above 1300.00 is in0-play.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Wednesday to 16.90 created an island of Tuesday’s session. It also extended sharply higher to test 17.35. Filling two gaps along the way neutralized their attraction, and neutralizing the low’s oversold condition that could have been helpful to leveraging a reaction to the news. Regardless, closing higher again Thursday would confirm an upleg underway targeting 17.90.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The support test of 153-29 resolved up sharply Wednesday, surging 2 points to new highs at 156-05 ahead of the FOMC policy statement. No sell signal would be calculable at new highs. But closing back under 155-04 would signal that the rally isn’t gaining traction.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Having filled the Monday’s opening gap above at 46.49, last Wednesday’s 45.29 opening gap below became the new attraction. Spiking down quickly fulfilled it and consolidated at fresh lows around 44.55. Back above 46.20 would signal the low is in and momentum has reversed up.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Dipping back down to fresh lows Wednesday recovered back above prior lows intraday. That was retraced to produce a fresh low close, and to delay a bottom at least one more day.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday didn’t exploit Monday having neutralized an attraction above by filling the gap back to Thursday’s close. Regardless, the pattern is still targeting an eventual third lower close.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing lower overnight to 1260.50 requires closing Tuesday back above 1268.50-1269.50 to maintain the potential for the current decline to be only a limited pullback, and not a new downleg. Closing above 1272.50 would trigger a recovery.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already having closed under 17.09 — actually, having gapped down to it Monday and then extending lower intraday — the decline extended deeper overnight. Closing back above 17.00 would be the minimum requirement to suggesting a bottom is beginning to develop.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing slightly lower overnight struggled to maintain a recovery back above the 153-29 pullback limit whose support has been chipped away for several days. Under 153-16 would target 152-24.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s failed gap up extended into negative territory Tuesday morning, until a surge essentially filled the gap back to Monday’s 46.49 opening gap up. Having neutralized the attraction above, the attraction below at Thursday’s 45.29 gap down may inhibit extending higher.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not already rallying Tuesday morning had made a retest of last week’s lows likely. Tuesday morning’s dive probed fresh lows down to 2.95, which would suffice for completing the low’s retest by closing above 3.02.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s initial bounce filled the gap back up to Thursday’s close before resolving down. Thursday’s confirmed breakout under 1.1235 still requires an eventual third lower close.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Flat-to-lower ranging continued flirting with the 1268.50-1269.50 sell signal that had held as support Friday. Almost any early buying pressure Tuesday would be credible for extending higher intraday, and into the week.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Monday to 17.09 support then extended lower to test 16.90. Just closing under 17.09 suggest the pullback has developed into a trend reversal. Recovering Tuesday to close back above 17.09 would put back into play a test of 17.90 .

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s gap down held the 153-29 pullback limit and eventually surged to attack the 154-24 bounce limit that was tested Thursday night. Its reaction down again held 153-29, but its break would target 152-23. Otherwise, another bounce Tuesday would target 155-04.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Breaking higher early Monday morning probed the 46.15 buy signal, which was premature considering Thursday’s 45.29 gap down under all prior lows still requires a retest. In fact, Monday’s gap up faded back to the signal and threatened turning negative.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Sunday night had recovered already into positive territory by Monday’s open. But gapping up held the 3.09 buy signal as resistance before reversing down into negative territory. A probe under last week’s 2.97 low is likely if Tuesday morning isn’t rallying sharply.