The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Rallying overnight gapped up Tuesday to within 2-3 ticks of the 2405.00 objective. One or two nanoseconds later, maybe three, a reversal down was already back under prior highs. The 2401.00 bias-up signal didn’t trigger, and the morning’s low bottomed 1 point short of fulfilling the 2392.75 bias-down signal’s offsetting test. Oversold RSIs were also left outstanding at the low. Bouncing back to 2401.00 during the noon hour then ranged sideways through the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Shy James Comey discretely broke his silence after the close by way of a New York Times story. Reaction to his memo’s select excerpts was immediate, and substantial. A 2-1/2 hour, 18-20 point slide attacked Thursday morning’s 2379.00 low to within 1 tick. Quickly bouncing back up to 2385.50 was consolidated into Europe’s opens, and now this morning’s 2388.75 bias-down target is being tested.

If, then…
The market is adjusting for the political uncertainty of the President’s administration, if not also for the political certainty of passing his economic legislative agenda that had motivated the rally. Does the market really care enough to reverse its trend down prematurely? Since actual headline surprises are sponsored by weak-hands, an interesting dynamic to their reactions is they tend to be temporary. The market was vulnerable to reversing down at any time, but this catalyst is artificial. A very real decline with organic roots probably still lies in waiting at new highs. “Ineffectual pessimism” at yesterday’s brief high also keeps alive potential for probing higher. None of which precludes post-open weakness, either brief, or potentially extending down to 2375.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2387.50 would be likely also not to recover the 2388.75 bias-down target by 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2391.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2394.25 bias-down signal.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning good morning welcome it is Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s Morning Market to her why was looking at the one in charge here that’s a nice overnight rally nice overnight rally ten-pointer wait a minute that is off of a pretty big love so right after the news yesterday I’m so ready to close yesterday it was quickly because bombshell hit to go through the the grinder of the 24-hour news cycle they can stretch it out to 5 days if they had if they must if the next news item doesn’t come along fast enough but anyway we had consolidating had been consolidating what was at the open a really quick fresh hotline greeted the opening your eyes to Gap up above all prize that wants to be filled very brief restrained optimism African trade prospective potentially Bush that wants to be retested very very steep drop we knew that there was some point maybe a little bit higher couple pics are at least maybe even higher than that a reaction down coming not really right away either and the delay and actually extending exploiting the Gap up didn’t make the downside any likely to develop to develop but just made the downside likelier to be substantial if it develops and it developed and it was substantially more substantial under the overnight low it happened afterward you know the rest of the day after the buy some of it was that entered it was already under way the mornings by its environment when the bottom was made the balance of the session is the new tower High arranging sideways to the clothes I don’t close drop to this leg being even more substantial of course it was vulnerable and it’s been vulnerable ever since printing that shallow higher high that structurally calculable e maybe didn’t hit the likeliest of objectives but but structurally that was enough to note on their ability and it’s been nothing but since that first of all whatever whatever was coming its way initially but ultimately last night on the news so artificial here this is actually more organic yesterday’s Post open high post over-reaction down I think it still would have been returned it if not for this news in fact I can guarantee it would have been her tested if not for the news That’s the only kind of guarantee can make it anyway anyway this is a reaction and maybe it’s accelerating pressure that would have developed a way but it’s not coming from more hands even though just a little bit higher we might have seen some more substantial selling and durable so I got that strong and its sponsorship coming in because this is week and it’s selling pressure it’s had to say this is the lower that I can’t be extended of course it can be as I have to say that the low yeah just got a couple hours away the entire session could be spent in decline or probing lower 275 or 70 the point is that this is artificial selling pressure and so being weak and it attracts strong hands to come in and exploit that these are weekend players it just a new opportunity arose and so there’s a little shift and the dynamic I supposed to paradigm shift so little and we come back to the hotheads would likely scenario whether it’s this lady that does it or not this down leg has yet to prove that it has reverse the trend and the bigger picture you can see it’s it’s got a good shot at proving that or at least try there’s yesterday’s high reversal down attacking infects topping optimistically short by the way Thursday morning’s low RS eyes were not over so the back door size diverts possibly if there’s a slow so there’s no acquired retest there but there is produced the new hi there is no bullets reason to be retesting at Lowe’s so actually proving that low would not be bullish itself so we can get out of here without having to retest the overnight low but if we retest last Thursday so probably work heading lower 275 if not also 2370 before still being capable of recovering we’re going to have to take out 2370 before writing off new eyes alright as far as the open goes to buy a subsidized and Target is 88-75 we’re down recovering to the bias down Target a couple of ticks away I take away so that’s how much sewing pressure has been over night or how far removed we are from yesterday’s clothes still potential to recover and we could be coming out of here and reload the point is if the bus down Target isn’t recovered course we’re going to the bus down and purposes will be looking at that point for 25 resistance that is likelier than not to hold and produce one more at least when we get back to last week so found a little firmer little slower no reason to suspect that that the euro is topping here and in fact it is extending higher overnight reproving higher Looney which presumably is fulfilling or playing out that is a no for the night silver and gold on the stock market decline which is interesting because that’s for silver 1705 1709 resistance then likely to be tested if 1675 is recovered maintains its recovery really close gold also up breaking higher breaking out of that 12/28/12 36 range and therefore expected to fill this Gap two-week-old Gap now that it’s been filled overnight that the Gap is about 12:40 815 12 4890 now that it’s been filled overnight we focus on the lower end of the structure containing the Gap the low end of that structures of sensually 1245 2550 so having fill that Gap closing today back under the lower end of that structure to love that structure 12 45 50 would tell us the Gap held Hammer trending back down that is the likelihood anyway I mean there is a higher Prairie low if this intent if this extends any hired 1252 5053 for a whole day that’s the reward for all until 45 50 12:45 long but also hire you know it went out yesterday it tested 15122 without testing it without recovery 152 he’s recovered 152 today which it is certainly probing overnight in order to reverse complete the reversal here member ongoing series a little as little as there’s a higher high and then a higher low didn’t close higher yesterday take out the probe of that hire hi there try close above the actual clothes would be 150 to afford 150 to his resistance and we’ll look at the lawn but as having bottom and reversed its Trend oil still fluctuating in this rain Gia report this morning here so good opportunity rally on the news if there’s no Riley on the news then the next objective the next objective is to fill the Gap back to the low potentially for much stronger bottom and then Natural Gas which extended down for a second cuz they actually the first time to 321 321 support because that was the original cell signal that was recovered so it’s natural support having tested it needs to break under it took them down right here any questions going I’ll see you there good luck today .

I’m aware of the issue with this morning’s Market Tour video. Audio seems to work fine, but only the cursor movement is captured and not the actual charts. I apologize for the inconvenience, and have reported the issue to Adobe.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Gapping up just above Friday’s 2393.00 prior high was just enough to overcome Friday’s failure to close above Thursday’s 2396.50 prior high. Extending higher immediately, relentlessly and sharply all fulfilled the setup, which tested 2402.25 during the morning’s bias environment. The balance of the session ranged flat-to-lower down to 2397.00. Monday’s new high close was at or overlapping the 2400.00 prior intraday high. It satisfies the “unfinished  business above” which had been required since the prior trend high close had printed on a Friday. The close’s overlap gets credit since all prior intraday highs were probed Monday.

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday afternoon’s flat-to-lower ranging initially extended, touching 2396.25 before midnight. Firming from there is only now probing attacking 2401.00.

If, then…
No “unfinished  business above” means that reversing down immediately could evolve into a durable decline. It’s a vulnerability, and it’s probably coming soon. But probing more fresh highs first is likelier after Monday afternoon’s pullback despite the morning piercing a new high — presumably including 2405.00, if not also 2415.00. Gapping down under 2397.00 to “lower prior highs” might be the only way to avoid another detour first.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2403.00 would be likely to trigger the 2401.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2397.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

There is an issue with the chaRTroom link that was in the First Trade blog post. Please CLICK HERE instead. Thank you!

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
[NOTE THE LOGIN URL HAS CHANGED]

Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap down was a small price to pay for Thursday’s recovery having stopped short of recovering a prior high. Overnight action had retraced a healthy 61.8% of Thursday’s recovery. Friday morning retested that retracement low. Neither test was able to launch an intraday rally, as the balance of the session ranged sideways. Despite overnight action having suggested Friday would resolve strongly in one direction, Thursday’s recovery was duplicated by not recovering a prior high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Trending up relentlessly had added 6 points into Europe’s opens. Double-topping there had soon retraced all of it. Plunging to the Double Top’s 261.8% extension was interrupted by a Running Correction. The pattern often retraces at least the Running Correction’s upper-quadrant, which this one is now doing, having bounced up to 2392.00.

If, then…
Failing to recover a prior high does leave the following session vulnerable to downside. However much and for however long depends on other factors — Friday could have fallen into a deeper hole, and so could Monday. That downside vulnerability from one session’s close can become irrelevant by the next session’s open gapping up above a prior high, and extending. That’s at least 2393.00 from Thursday which was probed overnight, and preferably 2396.50 from Wednesday which was not probed. Not even close. Extending higher anyway would target a retest of last Sunday night’s 2403.00 high by 2 points, and higher. At least one more new high close remains outstanding as “unfinished business above.” But breaking back under Friday’s 2384.25 lows would target 2375.00 and lower.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above2392.00 would be likely to trigger the 2390.75 bias-up signal at 10:51. Exiting the open under 2388.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Monday getting a little late start will Adobe software matter issue soon as I’ve been resolved hey wait there maybe there’s a new login for the chart room for the daily chart room noticed that it changes randomly and also that the layout maybe a little different if it is if you notice anything please let me know it’s not supposed to be let me know quickly because Friday and that is Thursday which gap down pretty substantial Trend in the morning or even before the I had completed and it was returned back to the open but not back above a prior hi so consequence of that is buyers didn’t gain traction for their effort and didn’t have to be a problem gapping up above the prior high above any prior high on Friday would have indicated that but Friday didn’t Friday gap down again was vulnerable Really Got Away easy cuz it could have turned it down and broke and lower because again buyers hadn’t gained traction for the reference all the energy they had expended Thursday now we have the same issue it’s a different looks different because exacerbated move Thursday morning and Thursday afternoon but it’s the same thing structurally and a lot of time discussing in this instance and that is that Friday gap down and it recovered the only back to the open not above her prior so once again even in this shallow Friday salinus there’s still the bone ability to resuming their Climb Every break under Friday’s low but basically 2385 8425 was tested overnight and then retested intraday it was a 61 8 retrievement Thursday’s recovery if we break that this morning then we resume or at least x 10 to the climb to 2375 maybe 2370 however if we got then we can but there’s more reliable rejection of the downside forget the vulnerability at least and look up we’re not indicated to do that right now open above Thursday’s I-93 or even the prior High which would be helpful as well 97-90 actually 6 area we can still end up at the end is trending up will give it every benefit of the doubt your time at least for not being vulnerable to a person that will give it the benefit of the doubt they can extend our and there is a pattern play that allow that to happen but it can’t stop here and it’s that he was the overnight action last night Trend it up end of Europe’s opens double top there at least one minute all right side of her negatively and then really slick out of that plunged out of that almost a little running correction in here and then plunged out of that are relevant to this connected to 6180 extension of the double top that’s a common objective but common report if it’s tested did bounce to the upper quadrant of this running correction and now the markets making a decision either it extends that it which case it’s minimum objective is the origin of the plan which is 9450 which is back above Thursday’s has which is then likely to extend Tire so above 92 pre-open really I’ll explain why the moment could Target resuming the new highs 2405 Exedra otherwise if this bounce holds the quadrant supper and are the upper quadrant that is running correction probably know that because it starts breaking back under 2390 or lower then it’s just it’s as if it didn’t happen or doesn’t matter that it happened overnight instead were back to the effects of not like Thursday and Friday but the vulnerability of it gets very much and play all right so why is it that has to happen before the open preferably not the open because there’s too much room to cover too much ground to make up for from too low if it’s not yet happening until the open and the open remember it in 15 minutes about sylheti is when the overnight at action influences the intraday or where the influences from overnight like an overnight pattern like this can be influential in today so if it’s not already happening to the 15 minutes we’re not really if not even be open it’s because the phone ability to the downside is extending its 9:20 by signal that was triggered on Friday it’s been to 109 that’s all right has been to 990 so that’s the objective may not even get a chance to confirm or if it does not didn’t do any damage to the Chart but now pound as well and then they are on the Earth right now influence and I 152 you can see the weakness little bit overnight camping down but really ask to break under 329 3:30 to Signal momentum forcing them all right here and if there’s any questions I will see you in the chart room before the open okay everyone good luck today .