The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap up above Monday’s ~2394.00 highs was shallow, resisted by week-old “higher prior lows”and a week-old gap around 2397.00. That resistance was being tested at the close, after session highs had twice pierced 2399.00. Not much of a slope — in fact, Tuesday was the fourth consecutive session of closing higher than the open, while intraday range continued to shrink to 8 points from 24 points last Thursday. The afternoon ranged just short of touching the morning’s high, without resolving down. “Unfinished business below” was left outstanding at 2388.75.

Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-lower shallow ranging essentially held tests of yesterday afternoon’s attacks on 2395.00. Europe’s opens sparked a rally back up to yesterday’s highs testing 2399.00. But price contineus returning to 2397.00.

If, then…
Yesterday afternoon’s range still hasn’t been rejected, adding to the potential for probing a fresh high. This would only stretch the rubber band tighter after last Wednesday’s confirmed trend reversal. That has now been fully retraced to its 2397.00 origin, with two days spent exclusively back above the original 2379.00 signal. Being Wednesday ahead of a three-day weekend, today is vulnerable to a steep reversal of the prevailing trend. Probing fresh highs intraday without gapping up would be vulnerable to an afternoon collapse. Gapping up to probe fresh highs wouldn’t be entirely safe, but would at least open the door to an afternoon squeeze.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2401.00 would be likely to trigger the 2399.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2397.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Wednesday at Stanford Wednesdays Morning Market to or not a lot going on overnight would you actually doesn’t mean much last night it just doesn’t we had a signal that tried triggering yesterday afternoon 98 touch too late and yesterday’s clothes to be influential accept his resistance which is persisted overnight finally getting that chance after your UPS opens proud of that not much stress on support yes afternoon Angelo’s had been probed basically 9650 was that inflection point also overlapped overnight and ever actually broken 2395 testing for 75 in case that can be anticipation ahead of it or in a bishon because of it so be aware it to is the fomc minutes finally I’m in the one other thing to point out is we had a trend change signal on Thursday I’m sorry Wednesday and if you look then we go there’s the trend change signal reversing from a fresh new fresh hide back under the last relative low closing and not recovering it the next day Trent change which requires her to be at least an eventual other lower clothes fresh low close in this case not just another clothes under that trench and signals or something under 2351 5150 that is out there because this is a confirmed Trend change in the interim prices only rally back to the origin of that Trend Trend change leg that’s all it’s done is retraced hasn’t done anything that hadn’t been done already now the one thing that suggests there is going to be a higher hi at some point is that each of these sessions kind of cooling the ranges each intraday range is shrinking versus the prior range 24 points back here with 17 points 9.7 or 8 point I think is the numbers and that’s wild trending each of these sessions closes above its open so kind Cooling and other words not just those data but also that it’s creeping higher and higher to resistance and that often resolved by almost literally exploding higher and even if it does what’s important is how that closes and almost literally exploding higher here well that could follow through and do a more substantial or sustained leg there’s another element involved specific to this particular timing that could speak very differently to that resolution in other words this is Wednesday a head of a three-day holiday weekend and if there’s going to be any big Trend kicked off or big correction made this is when it’s done has to be done typically by today not always in fact the last three day holiday weekend and didn’t the last three day holiday weekend just extend it but if this is going to go with a more traditional pattern than a it’s vulnerable to almost literally exploding higher remember Post open can almost literally explode higher like from yesterday afternoon and they overnight we’ve just been ranging sideways if I’m going to almost literally explode hi we’re going to do it right away so be ready for that if that happens again is 2405 may be tough to come by to help support corrective got a gap down here at 1 1115 maybe even lower prioritize down here 11010 so it’s been a pretty productive by signal but it’s really maxed itself out not that this can’t range or fluctuate a little bit above up here first but it’s a little late to get vald to the upside veloute looking for its pull back corrective go back at least the pound got to hold about 120 972 maintain potential to at least one more higher high then the Aussie back under 7465 closing back under 7465 what at least suggest upside momentum is lapsed as far as the cell signal that would it be sufficient but another is back under these lower otherwise.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday took three steps higher and higher, but each step was shorter and shorter. Gapping up to the overnight range’s 2385.00 high immediately extended to attack 2391.00. That was retraced entirely before rallying again into the noon hour to test 2393.00. Essentially hovering at the highs was resembling a “Wile E. Coyote moment,” vulnerable to collapse. Yet one more shallow correction was recovered to probe slightly higher at 2394.25 before the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
The intraday pattern repeated with one more fresh high, the shallowest yet by only a 2-tick margin. Sadly, that resolved in the collapse described earlier, due to terrorism at a concert in Manchester. The 8-point slide to 2386.75 was consolidated into Europe’s opens, which triggered a surge to fresh highs attacking 2398.00.

If, then…
Monday’s bearish WedEX influence was limited to retracing all of the post-open gain. But quickly resuming the rally prevented forming a solid base. And now the room for extending higher up to “higher prior lows” around 2397.00 is being tested. Not extending almost immediately through 2399.00-2401.00 would be vulnerable to another complete retracement back down.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2397.00 would be likely to trigger the 2395.25 bias-up signal at 10:!5. Exiting the open under 2391.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Tuesday 10 / Tuesday’s market tour and interesting reaction here not sadly not a great reaction here so I don’t know that we can really draw the two together but the fact is that yesterday afternoon price action yesterday afternoon was I was criticizing it or characterizing it at least as the Wylie Coyote moment we had been searching for tracing and the retraced move the entire wood Trace them back to the opening print if that was it and it’s through the bias environment exit if that was influenced by the bearish wed x to the degree that was influenced by the Bears win X the complete retracement back to the opening friend then that is the end of the Burruss wedding in any case because its influence begins Friday afternoon and ends after Monday morning however immediately recovering from that retraced man didn’t allow any kind of a base to form so that doesn’t make terribly horrible base to try extending higher but it is suspicious anyway and that suspicion is someone confirmed when surgeon to have fresh hi then runs out of its own sponsorship runs out of its own sponsorship that is more so rather than pulling back constructively just hovers again like that I kind of scene of Wylie Coyote being let off the cliff by Roadrunner hovering there in literally sustained animation momentarily and then gravity sucks and down last minute surge or piercing buy a couple points I have been a couple points or traced back into the ring and then sadly the overnight at the Ariana Grande concert terrorist attack suicide bomber drives price down 8 points from that surge Peak so price does collapse it does though by collapsing do what yesterday’s new Howard Stern’s didn’t do in reaction and that is correct actually dig deeper into and not just tangentially barely into the retreat the mornings verus Wade extra Trey Smith so what do we or another the market does what it’s supposed to do to get where it wants to go and in this case he had completed its correction Consolidated it Consolidated it through right into actually Europe’s opens which triggered an extension of the rally but concerned apparently being over there more geared toward successful quelling or ending of the terrorist incident good for them so anyway what was the likelihood or potential that is what was the likely objective higher Pryor lives up here 2397 area as I said yesterday instead of just the area or at least not triggering that is to buy ass up there for putting into play if especially if tested Post open the 23 9525 bias up signals tested Post open but not triggered putting into play the oxygen test of the bias down signal message drop back to 8875 but trigger buy a sub 23 9525 will give her every benefit of the doubt to being able to at least absorb backing and filling you know yesterday morning triggered by us up and then spent the balance in the morning backing and filling didn’t fulfill its bicep Target in till the afternoon so that’s possible today not likely to repeat the same setup but so that’s possible or actually to extend higher and buy us up as biased not limited to the bias of Target any questions let me know coming or not and it has isn’t indicated at this point but if today were too close even higher then that’s not it self confirmation but to take out 6150 again after it had been influential with really undermine the downside the same set up a different price points basically no higher price for silver but a close above last Wednesday’s high that had formed an island that had reacted down in the formation of an island that is recovering to resume the rally remember islands are always were tested whether it’s to form a more significant top or to resume the trend that led to it so either that’s what is developing here that is resuming the rally or the retest Wednesday size going to hold and that’ll format top kind of hesitant here at the time at this time long Bond nothing no reason why they consolidation 2 + day consolidation can’t now resume the rally it’s starting to get a little late little delayed in resume in the rally and crude oil which confirmed a break out yesterday I break out of this multi-session range this is July now requires there to be an eventual at least one eventual third I are close so I said over tradesmith this is where that knowledge comes in handy you know when the breakout is confirmed immediately which is what confirmation is and then immediately fulfills the eventual require third higher clothes there goes that predict ability that we can otherwise rely on but here the pattern is immediately were tracing and we know there’s an eventual third are closed likely and that makes it easier to buy support like this afternoon .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s 2370.50 gap up immediately retraced 61.8% of Thursday afternoon’s pullback. Extending higher through the afternoon bias environment exit touched 2388.00, when a a headline triggered a dip to 2378.00. Although was in-line with the bearish WedEX, it may have been more influential in preventing the close from recovering the 2383.50-2384.00 noon hour entry. “Unfinished business above” at 2389.50 was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
Overnight action doesn’t lack volatility, but its range relatively has been relatively narrow, and contained. Quickly firming up to 2384.00 quickly turned sideways. Ranging narrowed and dips became shallower as 2384.00 continued holding as resistance, being probed up to 2385.25. Europe’s opens triggered a drop back down toward Friday’s late 2378.00 low, only to bounce back up to 2384.00.

If, then…
Friday’s late drop hasn’t been disproved. If it were only a reaction to news, then it is vulnerable to being recovered almost immediately Sunday night. But this near the open and still holding 2383.50-2384.00 suggests the news only coincided with the bearish WedEX influence. There’s too much ground to cover for that influence to be obvious soon after the open, and yet also test Friday’s unfinished business above at 2389.50. One is likely to be avoided, or at risk of it.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2387.25 would be likely to trigger the 2386.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2383.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Monday cyber Monday’s Morning Market or not a lot going on but that his usual that’s what’s going on because Friday afternoons and drop which imported with the bare Esthetics influence but finally comported with it because prices have been rising and had risen out above the new during the bear sweater collapsed and didn’t recover the new towers entry and so that was in line the thing is the Catalyst was a headline so reason to be a little suspicious but maybe that reasons a little diminished now because overnight action Sunday nights open alone didn’t immediately recover that late break which if that had been a week and it dropped alone instead of being influenced by an organic Factor like the bare Esthetics then that should have been recovered in tirely now there are other influences along the way so that develop over the weekend that might also be suppressing price what price would have or should have recovered 8350 84 where the afternoon to buy some vitamins or new tower begin its not what I meant was that it hasn’t so still though if the Bears when I was going to be influencing this morning’s price action than it should be influencing it no later than 945 The Open is allowed to get some bounce out of the way that fails looks like we’re going to be opening not far from flat and not close to or not that far away from them from Friday’s High Fridays alaihis of its retest there as possible we’re just so close to the open and it’s still not happening so it’s less and less likely and by the same token it’s still far enough away that its rejection is more difficult as well having said that though you have some really ever does get in the way this late this close to the open after the entire overnight has been spent training sideways then there’s actually a less less or lower possibility of trending up through it so regardless of trending down once we get out of the open if there’s a leak glow back so late pre-open rally it’ll still be suspicious got to get out of Friday’s late High Friday night before suggesting that were rallying this morning and that’s to the open not at least try to buy a alright markets so we got strength there’s the Aussie Thursday night Friday probably in a little bit higher this morning pound still in this space that is consolidating basically we’re not even dating anymore but I just waiting above or at the prize that got blindsided on Thursday and pop right back up on Friday Thursday night actually the Looney which is continuing to advance and resuming that continue continued advancement of that inverted Head and Shoulders set up and then you which had some comments Merkel Germany blamed its low valuation on their own lives and so that said that it is silver and gold both higher now silver buy biking up basically destroy potential Island that was in fact the reversal but I know one day basis doesn’t really do any do any good but spiking up to 1717 basically attacking 17 or testing 1709 & 1709 is recovered through the clothes that’s going to spell it completely different pattern then the one that is still targeting 1595 it would be a bottom but that Line in the Sand is closing above 1709 second cuz I required to but I’d be suspicious that it doesn’t happen but not as strongly right up to the same what happens support 1256 Thursdays or Wednesdays actually test of 12 only couple days because .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday behaved bullishly, but each bullish element was lacking. The overnight 2344.50 low had found support at filling a 4-week old gap. It wasn’t retested intraday, but Thursday’s open still gapped down under Wednesday’s low instead of isolating sellers. The session rallied throughout, but didn’t probe a prior session’s prior high until the afternoon touched 2375.00. Exiting the afternoon bias environment above the morning’s 2367.50 high formed a short-squeeze setup, but it wasn’t exploited as the balance of the session slid to 2363.50…

Overnight action’s new info…
…And through it. Sliding into and out of the close eventually reached 2361.00, finding the support of “lower prior highs” that had preceded Thursday’s last rally. Another rally from there is now probing back above Thursday morning’s high to 2371.50. Still short of Thursday afternoon’s high.

If, then…
Overnight firming won’t matter much intraday if the open isn’t already recovering yesterday’s 2375.00 high. That would form a “session-long rally” setup, and have the best chance at inverting the bearish WedEX’s afternoon influence. That still wouldn’t negate the confirmed trend change signal, which itself makes the inversion unlikely. So, morning strength would likely resolve into a new downleg.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2373.25 would be likely to trigger the 2369.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2366.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
have a good morning and welcome it’s Friday got a late start today I apologize so this recording is coming a little late but it’s a real quick one we’re going up or down this morning and then probably do okay details so Yesterday rally here’s the problems with yesterday’s routing that the origin was a gap down under Wednesdays Lowe’s the overnight from under it therefore was it isolated overnight low wasn’t retested but it was over that and it wasn’t immediately rejected that didn’t prevent obviously doesn’t prevent Browning anyway here’s an example mine’s the quality of it in fact it wasn’t until it wasn’t until the afternoon that a prior sessions high that is Wednesday’s prayer I was even through a relevant window night during but through coming out of it not only that but then also exceeding the morning so I created a short squeeze set up back to not having isolated the overnight sellers that undermined it it would have been entirely credible and it developed but instead the balance of the session if I’m leaving the bus environment trying to back down so where did you go to will eventually went to lower price that had lunch that last really like so there is one opportunity here to Rally with this morning for having that test and if the open can Gap up significantly enough just opening above yesterday afternoon so I sorry yesterday morning so I 6750 that in itself at least creates room up to 75 just a vacuum to possibly test it we do have two or three I would say 1 or 2 things bearing down on the market anyway there’s the context of this being a trend change having gap down on Wednesday under the fryer low from a prayer from a high and then not invalidating it yesterday on Thursday to 7:30 or close is likely and we’ve also got the sorry we’ve also got the bear attacks coming this afternoon so if which is currently indicated if this morning but actually extended by the open to not go through but to something that can extend through quickly to the opening 15 minutes to the prior High 275 that could actually for me sexually we’ll talk about that if it happens that could invert the bear sweater and that would be interesting into the weekend but it probably wouldn’t invalidate trim down and because it’s really not in good luck somebody to invalidate the trend down that session long rally setup is on your mind to begin with alright if there’s any kind of morning 6752 the open might be looking for a long probably be looking for long as the morning until the afternoon but otherwise we could be training them to the day that’s not speaking to the slope for the severity of it which of course will need to see the opening action to identify that alright weird holding pattern Rudy is it finally we starting resuming I should say this confirmed break out from the inverted Head and Shoulders?! And the euro which gap down in fact fill the Gap back to two Tuesdays closed so there’s support their held that support and now probably hire as well gold rejected its probe of Our Lives we can see that little that little range they’re actually just ended range which is what they told us we were about ready to extend them 6150 closing under its prior low and see the cursor there 52 so the upside momentum lapses on that really questionable it didn’t confirm Wednesday’s break out Above This multi-session range so I went down that’s over waiting for underperforming an island out of Wednesday session overnight 1675 is being probed the island just stay away from the island 5252.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s plunge probed lower through each intraday timing window but the noon hour. Like a “session-long decline” but without the setup. Afternoon selling got underway prematurely, so its 2369.75 bias-down signal will need a retest. The attraction above didn’t prevent trending down into the close testing 2355.00. Meanwhile, a trend change triggered by Tuesday’s new relative high at 2402.50 being followed by a break under last Thursday’s 2379.00 prior relative low. Not recovering the prior low Thursday would require at least one eventual lower close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sellers weren’t finished, but they did need to refuel. A quick 2-3 point dip quickly touched the 2355.50 intraday low. Reversing up just as quickly extended 11+ points until approaching Europe’s opens at 2367.00. A gradual dip accelerated within two hours to attack Wednesday’s low. Its consolidation broke sharply to fresh lows at 2344.50, 22+ points off the overnight high. A symmetrical triangle that formed there is now breaking higher to 2254.50.

If, then…
The overnight low fills a 4-week old gap that was created by the record-setting 3-day surge, which eventually became the recent high. That structure already had a basis for rallying, so retracing its origin isn’t necessarily bearish. It can still seem that way. The next lower structural support is another gap that coincides with “lower prior highs” at 2334.00. That can be avoided by isolating sellers to the overnight, by maintaining an open back above yesterday’s lows — preferably above 2358.50. Anything in between could still try recovering this morning, but with great difficulty.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2362.50 would likely trigger the 2361.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2357.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up, and above it would be unlikely to trigger the 2352.75 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2349.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning it’s Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s Morning Market to her Okay so more of the same overnight now a little bit different but it could develop into something more remember yesterday gapping down from a new high that’s a new hot on Tuesday morning because of that new high really I mean not just because I didn’t we also had on Tuesday at Fred should I just not as silly above more time so Advanced that we have a prior interim low from the last relative of the advance so that the gap down to it I threw it but closing hundred reverse the trend down and unless we close back above it today that Trend will be confirmed as out a break out so we’re not talking about a second can take a blower close to tell you about maintaining the clothes under so long as 79 isn’t recovered that’s a trend change train change sounds pretty substantial and really what it means is there’s at least one more clothes so kind of like a break out in that regard had it can happen pretty easily when it happens pretty substantially like this it can be over sooner than later and it looks like it’s going to happen because this is extending the close quickly we tested overnight open open advanced you’re just ahead of you pretty big 11-point Trend weekend accelerated stopped optimistically short of the Lowe’s and then just died capitulated from there so we got French Lowe’s the market is trying to resume or extend delete duplicate yesterday’s decline doesn’t have to be successful at that you know this is the point that became a 22 and a half Point decline because of that 11/2 point rally there was more room to expand selling pressure before it could do damage and so as a result bouncing here pretty close to yesterday’s Lowe’s yesterday’s Lowe’s or the delimiter between up and down but my point is that price is still pretty close and there’s still a couple of hours before the open so what could happen if this is coming marked up with a lot of the nineties what could happen it is some interesting structures in here bottom line is this sewing pressure the solars could be isolated to be overnight if they were isolated to the other day I haven’t spoke to Fresh trying to low and open never-the-less back above Pryor Lowe’s maintain that recovery that post up into that opening recovery above Pryor Lowe’s through the Open Don’t probe negative territory under yesterday’s was there’s even a line in the sand it would be preferable 5850 open about 5850 basically hold above yesterday’s Lowe’s extend hire a possible another isolate the sellers to the overnight they could help to fuel a rally a recovering and that could also send a message that so there’s tribe they failed remember the origin here without looking for this to be a strong handed decline this sponsorship here is is not necessarily strong and it and probably not Hayway interesting patterns and here that if recovered basically if we get back out of a 62 area through any relevant tell me when do 6125 is a bicep signal another point above their there’s resistance and me there’s Pryor overnight stuff here this prior pre-close stuff here but there’s a lot of upside of Attraction above to 6975 yesterday afternoon’s biased and signal that this is all a premature break up or late break up in either case nobody’s trending there’s a symmetrical triangle forming now having formed off the low symmetrical triangle I know what you’re thinking they often break falsely in One Direction before reversing more substantial in the opposite direction and this one may do just that however when these appear any kind of a pattern that appears pre-open if it’s not already if it’s not already for feeling that the characteristic like in this case the magical triangle I just described tends to break false in One Direction before reversing more substantial in the opposite direction if it’s not yet reversing by the time we get through the oven in 15 minutes about today it probably won’t and you can see there’s a 61 8 Retreat or Scituate extension hear of this pattern about 5375 161 ache it’s deceptive 5857 50 is a big Line in the Sand for the open 5750 of to 5850 so we could be looking at that now are a size 10 Salida virgin negative here but so long as that’s not exploited I think right now we can give this a benefit of the doubt and stopping explain there’s a price I can give it to the other night to the open we’re already maybe we or just and open breaking down Breaking Bad remember we had this week that is and Confirmation at least a third her clothes as expected and there’s a inverted Head and Shoulders pattern that suggest that’s going to be exploded into something bigger found as fulfilled all the upside that it needed to yesterday but it never signal momentum reversing down and his bicycle remains intact with its two consecutive higher closes and now it is probably higher overnight nothing that says that has to reverse down anytime soon they could but there’s no set up there that says the fun of it and then the Aussie which had 3 days here of opportunity to reject or a hold this tested and training resistance and it did intraday but as of yesterday’s open app down didn’t recover up to a new relative High it did recover this dance reading resistance and has extended her overnight to 7460 + so something bigger seems to be underway here it’s not really good pattern because it’s sleeting unfinished business below that seems to be the awesome or move here before coming back to testing it feeling it chiropractor Lowe’s at 12 send gold at 12 6115 being tested being probed overnight up to 1265 having done so doesn’t really matter how much I love the overnight is just close about 6150 today and something more substantial could very well be underway don’t close above 6150 don’t close above 61 feet and and in that case clothing under 6150 probably the end of the road here I don’t like that as the identifying feature to up or down and negative clothes would be much more reliable two capping a Philly calling it a false break but basically fall Sprague higher before Traverse of silver is a break out yesterday from a multi section range can maintain it quick answer already dipping back into that price range I just need to close under and it’s testing closer 1675 overnight that would isolate this this island needing to be recovered it has a safety line recover from recovering probably aren’t going to maintain this overnight probably 321 so initially jerk reaction up can’t be ruled out alright and the recording here quick 15 minutes any questions please go unplug them to the chart room and I’ll see you there before the open door right good luck today.