The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
NEW LINK! Then, meet in the chaRTroom here For updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap up to 2386.00 had already dipped 4-5 points from the overnight high. And the open quickly slid another 5-6 points deeper back under Wednesday’s highs. The noon hour’s brief plunge to 2376.00 neutralized the oversold RSIs left outstanding at Wednesday’s 2375.50 low. All of the plunge was eventually recovered, but only the plunge, as the session went out testing 2386.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Narrow ranging under 2386.00 suddenly triggered a sell signal that intersected at 2385.00, plunging to 2379.00. The catalyst was Crude Oil plunging $1.65 to 43.75. Remarkable as that was, more so was its complete recovery within hours. No fundamental causes for the move are known. And now yesterday’s late high is being probed by several ticks up to 2387.25.

If, then…
Whether or not the 6-7 day correction of last week’s rally finally end depends on today’s open. Recovering 2388.00 yesterday could have reversed momentum up already. Instead, vulnerability to another downleg remains intact up to 2391.00. Rallying 8 points to retrace all of the overnight plunge has created momentum. But there’s still several points of resistance above, and an Employment Situation report ahead. All of which can cut either way, especially when leveraged by Friday Factors as weekend illiquidity approaches. The loose lips of multiple Fed speakers including Yellen are approaching even faster.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary indications are considered ahead of an Employment Situation report.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Friday it’s time for Friday’s morning market tour that we have a new chart room address be sure to always login off of the first grade blog post or any other chart-room link and email me right away if you ever have any issues in that regard all right so yesterday we left with uptrending support I have this pivotal uptrending support identify is parallel line to it for this consists of trending someone of the consolidation so it’s parallel line being a cell signal is trigger no reason why it had to be trigger but if the to the trim line and price River to meet Liberty would ensue in fact overnight who incidentally as seemingly innocuous Cross of that uptrending support suddenly proved what was going on when crude oil which will look at it in a moment suddenly plunged poodle plunged about 60-65 well yes cratered as well now well crude oil went to New lows and yes prior Thursday’s low the difference really is irrelevant since there’s been no fundamental cause identified for the crude oil drop which is better Trace entirely and get a look at that in a minute so was yes yes was retraced entirely as well lot of buying pressure expended just to retrieve and that could be problematic for recovering today on the one hand he have 2386 yesterday’s is it morning time with you also was recovered by a Plunge 2388 which is resistance anyway and then all the way up to 2391 which actually 2391 or 9075 doesn’t have any bears reason to be tested if we’re headed to 9075 whether it’s on that late or not probably it’s because the market is going to be pushing a higher but meanwhile lot of pressure was expended lot out of short-term aggressive buyers were attracted into the market by smelling his blood in the water that buying pressure is now satisfied maybe a head’s a little bit higher it’s already piercing is his house back up that basically we can won’t be available or will be available to the open to hear this it’s not probably get out of here the upside and all that can be left behind enough to the upside of course we’ve got the employment situation report that’s going to try preventing that with God and that’s at 8:30 by the way we’ve got and that’s the only a couple we’ve got a lot of fed speakers lined up including the Ellen alright so downside is entirely plausible to resume if we were to look at a new cell signal just keeping it on the spelling correction like pattern to 2384 would be kind of an outlier but I’m 2384 were crossed if it were you know we may not actually break lower what is 2384 were broken then probably already heading down aggressively there’s that much room in other words to death and not really but not yet Alright by the way any questions please in the trim overnight down here maybe that other than actually play rejecting it says drop next puts into play 1206 1211 alright so silver trying to at least slow it’s rated set but it’s got a lower lower lower levels outstanding as well Long Pond which Gap damn that’s no way to resume Trend by the way but gap down not from within the range it’s been a lot of time pressure that’s truly miss just when you need it most to break through not only a prior extreme but what was calculable support the target tested thoroughly tested yesterday didn’t actually rejected to test went out testing it so I can’t really say that about him as in at this point until we see another session of ranging here or backing and filling or whatever it does there’s no new calculation other than 15218 has a bicycle and if that’s not a low there’s another point below from here here’s that crude oil do with yesterday had already dropped quite a bit gapping down trending down throughout remaining down testing a big big supporter of big Target of this pattern but not rejecting it and that’s the problem with not rejecting a Target once tested instead of holding it if it had wanted to introduce could have recovered today it’s still good with her back about 4617 despite having plunged overnight here is that overtime plunge coincide exactly with the S down to 4376 and then recovering and tirely I get a lot of buying pressure expended just to get that done and natural gas CIA reports today I’m sorry you got a big reaction more of the jerk reaction never recovered nothing really bullish about it we still got the same pattern same objective for fresh lives while it’s in the recording here so I can get it sent out and I will see you in the chart ruler I don’t forget we got a Saturday review tomorrow good luck today

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s drop to 2375.50 only briefly probed under the recent range’s 2378.50 “lower prior highs.” The dip met both the morning’s 2378.00 bias-down target and Monday’s “unfinished business below” at 2377.25. Bouncing greeted the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement at 2381.00. Simultaneously oversold RSIs at the low didn’t prevent a knee-jerk reaction up, but only briefly and relatively shallowly to  2384.00. Simultaneously oversold RSIs at the low also didn’t prevent twice probing higher highs up to 2386.00, both times reacting back down under 2384.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Blipping-down only momentarily at the Globex open was soon recovered to retest Wednesday’s late 2386.00 high. Ranging there narrowly into and out of Europe’s opens has now broken higher to attack 2391.00, reportedly in anticipation of repealing Obamacare today.

If, then…
Is the overnight rally’s catalyst the anticipation for repealing Obamacare today. This was reported already yesterday afternoon, so it’s as much responsible for inhibiting a retest of the morning’s low. There were two paths to recovery Wednesday afternoon. One would have trended up to close above 2388.00. The other path higher would have first retested the morning’s low. In their absence, gapping up above 2388.00 Thursday would still be credible for extending higher, if not also above Monday’s 2390.75 high. Overnight action is trying, and could be well-rewarded by resuming the rally to new highs. Alternatively, not maintaining a probe above 2388.00-2390.75 would be vulnerable to launching a retest of oversold RSIs at Wednesday’s low.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2391.00 would be likely to trigger the 2388.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2384.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] hey good morning and welcome it is Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s morning market tour okay we’ve got to really easy setup here this morning either Extenze higher or collapses collapses at least back to fill in a gap to yesterday’s clothes but really if that ladies going to play out if we’re going to take a 23 essentially 2391 is centrally opening test or at least overnight test on his priority and not extend it from this base oversold are a size that the low yesterday closed in negative territory after neutralizing its attraction back to Tuesdays close if overnight rallying the list seems somewhat Relentless rally we did show up here but didn’t pull back or shallow correction or a time-based correction if all of that isn’t going to be met by new sponsorship at the open to push price spot price Drive price higher above this prior I then not only do we face we testing yesterday afternoon’s lower prior house which is 2384 2384 being the initial reaction up on the fomc statement that was probed retraced probed again retraced Natalie feeling Natalie testing the lower prayer has filling the Gap back yesterday’s clothes that essentially being the cash Station close 8350 actually even lower 83 basically futures but also all of that reaction down vulnerable to if not likely to extend all the way back yesterday was which was the risk yesterday afternoon we’re over sold all right size require retest there is only yesterday afternoon and this is basically the first thing out of your presents support when tested here’s an instance that similar to what I’m about to describe there’s a pro buyer back down to lower price in the immediate next time in window no other complexity above to develop to attract price higher and what happens after those little prize or influential that give away so somewhat similarly hear you have 2391 attack or tests and other case 2388 being the bias of signal that extended higher do the open attraction back down there has likely to produce some of it but more likely just a delay before collapsing back down where any other lower price of already been used their support meeting with prior Lowe’s yesterday afternoon not likely to do anything more if at all produce a obligatory bounce temporary before extending down to retest yes a slow the bottom oversold are a size optimistically short of 7574 and 7115 potential it’s not likely Hood get out of here the upside and by the way the overnight again they’re only ranging fluctuating through into and out of Europe’s opens basically flip side of that actually it’s being attempted lowering buyers at the moment is already growling up to attack 9075 break that basically that downtrend from last week so I not just the distance but it’s last touch look at the anchor in the connector the connector here at 2390 75 or cover that the relevant window by proxy the high of the entire sequence with being play break that and the entire rally already underway which already requires a resolution from whatever level back up to more chance I could get under way again the one more time hold that 2391 attack or test the likelihood is at least to fill the Gap at yesterday’s clothes and probably also to probe yesterday’s aloe and then find a better bottom and then find the bottom find the buyers the sponsorship that has been lacking since last week’s opening search basically put them on pause if that’s alright 2328 2391 to the open all day otherwise I think the market is not offensive Euro still but that’s not finally probably did not close lower or Pro blower inter day yesterday opening potential for a fresh load today that also doesn’t close negative that also closes at least above yesterday’s range not just above Tuesday’s Lowe’s or I’ll try within range of it to actually there’s a possibility so long as 1236 the most bullish that’s not to say about him is forming that’s at the say a recovery is close at hand just not abortion area silver which kind of what’s been guiding this as far as relentlessly trending down and informing the up/down crash set up and not triggering the down crash portion of the set up under 1680 which is targeting a quick move data 15 1995 extending down so basically this week goes away cuz it’s not being exploited closing immediately about 1705 would invalidate it that’s outlier and just interesting to note long blonde which didn’t extend her yesterday so that help since on Monday the target was met the long-standing target of this break lower was met would have hampered its recovery by immediately triggering the bicycle so yes he’s restrained optimism Health in that regard and that dipping overnight bag down to would have been the bounce limit so now we can Institute a Buy Signal and actually lower this inflection point it is based on holding this pull back them up at the 208 intraday I’m sorry holding it to the clothes I can be probed intraday but recovered through the clothes at the very least we don’t need to close positive don’t need to close above yesterday’s high or after yesterday’s don’t need to close but yes to be bullish today at least there’s enough to pull back limit at least close above 150 to 1718 that would be the minimum inflection point closing positive wouldn’t detract from that it wouldn’t be too much optimism taking this negative overnight probe of the have been balance limit and recovering the close above yesterday’s highs or even Tuesday size that wouldn’t be very shy either that wouldn’t be excessive optimism the excessive optimism the one set up that would be great other than closing back under 152 la which isn’t that’s really good it would only have maybe a longer and more protracted bottom is for me but the only Bears really Bears setup for the bond would be to prove Tuesday’s highs or I’m sorry Wednesday is probably 130 3071 5308 intraday and failed to close above it that’s the really big scenario for the long one trying and failing to prove Wednesday close above it I think that’s not close to 18 approaching the door to another back up above higher price but it’s just at this point is Harlow’s 4740 that too close back of us would be a bottoming setup reversal set up we’ll talk about it if it develops and then natural gas greeting the eia report today from a position of weakness having broken already now couple times and confirmed once under 321 bounce 2 created distributive pattern and then yesterday bouncing so loading up on more week and as long as what would make this bullish if the reaction to eat I ate today were above prioritize 3:27 to 3:30 and maintained that’s the only thing that would make this a bullet set up otherwise were headed to 311 and lower all right here any questions go and post them and I will see you there before the open okay good luck today

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap up to test 2388.00 wasted little time before reversing down, plunging to test 2382.00. Bouncing back up to touch 2388.00 wasted a lot of time while reversing back down to barely attack 2382.00. Yet another bounce barely attacked 2388.00. The series of lower highs interrupted by a higher low formed a Symmetrical Triangle, and the close dipped down to its apex. The morning’s bias left outstanding “unfinished business above” at 2391.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s last dip immediately extended into the Globex open, piercing Tuesday afternoon’s last low to attack 2382.00 more closely. Quickly bouncing to 2385.00 eventually started resolving back down, to fresh lows at 2381.00.

If, then…
Despite already probing yesterday’s range, today faces the same global liquidity constraints that inhibited trending yesterday. Trending can be attempted, but it’s unlikely to get very far, for very long, without being retraced very much. Post-close AAPL earnings also constrained trending yesterday, as much as the actual earnings are enabling it overnight. Closing again under 2388.00 had kept the door open to at least probing fresh lows. It can still extend down to unfinished business below at 2377.52, and probably also to 2374.00 or 2371.50. All in the name of satisfying selling pressure reflected by yesterday’s Symmetrical Triangle, stretching the rubber band so the rally can resume.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2381.00 would be likely to trigger the 2383.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2386.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] Alright good morning and welcome it’s Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s Morning Market or you know yesterday this session was constrained every week we had no shortage of legs and velocity or momentum more sentiment among those legs plunging at the open the resulting no bias even though holding the buy a stamp signal did put into play at all saying test of the bicep signal that throughout the morning was influential only to prevent extending down when the bias environment sort of thing in the morning another trend none of these very long lasting maybe the trend back down into the afternoon could be considered was longest lasting longer lasting in fact by the time but it wasn’t big trends and ultimately the session formed symmetrical triangle alternating the touches of resistance and support we don’t use this because we have to alternate the touches of the downtrending resistance of trending support touches it actually comes in here in here because this is when they cash that should open or closed and Globex open to probe under that up trying to support so big triangle pattern that often breaks falsely and One Direction reversal in the opposite direction why did yesterday I was just found we talk during the Saturday review the global constraints so many International Exchange is being closed some rolling closings due to holidays this week of the things you could have a lunch but that doesn’t prevent so much as a patient reports also in the afternoon it was going to get out of the Rings were coming and as I mentioned going into the early afternoon but very late that’s not 7471 and there’s a lower Pryor High in here that would be tested so different shade of the same the same influence of the same kind of session that we had yesterday but it was rained out Range found instead today that influence would be trying to Trend but not succeeding but still getting some size of a legs because the market does still have some opinion to express all right it’s morning but it’s afternoon basically 8275 if that is held through the open to the oven in 15 minutes of volatility just threw the open through any relevant time window that really undermines sellers at that point recovering would be a different story it’s not that we don’t have any shortage of news items never this is employment situation week and so we’ve got a teepee we also have a FMC policy statement coming this afternoon more reason for inhibiting trending and head of a head of that and potentially the reaction to the earnings is what drives either the last nail in the coffin or I shouldn’t put it that way that looks a bit a stake through the heart anyway bald head of the relevant levels that could get the rest of the rest of the way there and have that rubber band stretch the same as extending and that’s more the way to the okay gold which is extending back down into this Apex natural support reacted to it not terribly is that breaks lower than we do have a slide it coming back down into the 12 28 12 35 area but closing about 1259 can avoid that and by the way I can also produce a retest of the highs silvermine meanwhile in this up down crash set up sitting at support still sitting at support piercing in a little bit overnight having pierced it overnight in fact in this pattern support proving it and trying to put a producer Presley and in the context of the up/down crash if this isn’t bouncing this isn’t surgeon this morning this is very vulnerable at that point to suddenly going exponential capitulating plunging collapsing long blonde since touching its pull that Target has been bouncing it took out it’s bouncing that yesterday and second consecutive are closed today would confirm that the decline has ended crude oil as of last week was already giving the bottom and pattern some headaches here yesterday really blew it out of the water I would still take seriously it close above 4930 50001 otherwise its resistance and the I can’t say so much the trend is down as a maybe the most bullish scenario is that another bottoming pattern tries forming from these wrestlers and by the way I report for crude oil today tomorrow for natural gas which is coming out of his head and shoulders pattern formed on the bounce with unfinished business full of alright any questions and please or I will see you before the open good luck today

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s gap up to 2386.00 was reversed immediately to fill the gap back down to Friday’s 2381.00 close. But no lower, despite having put into play an offsetting test of the morning’s 2377.25 bias-down signal. Recovering back to the 2387.50 overnight highs was later extended to attack 2391.00, after absorbing a knee-jerk reaction down on headlines. It wasn’t too late for a third reaction down, or for that reaction’s break back under 2388.00 to prevent a close above it that would otherwise have been bullish.

Overnight action’s new info…
An extremely narrow and flat 2-3 point range held one test of 2388.00, and has since been bouncing repeatedly off of 2384.25.

If, then…
Gapping up above 2391.00 Tuesday would suggest last week’s rally is resuming. That’s not indicated, and neither pre-open economic report is capable of triggering that. Quarterly earnings are still coming, but the positive surprises aren’t registering in the market. The door to fresh lows remains every bit open as the two prior sessions — not required, but likely to be recovered.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2381.00 would be likely to trigger the 2383.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2385.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2388.00 bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
[Adobe upgraded last night, and I spot-checked the recording]
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
2388.00 had held overnight and pre-open tests, and Friday’s open quickly began sliding 9 points. The afternoon bias environment’s attack on 2378.00 was only a couple of points under the morning bias environment’s low. No capitulative leg formed, but neither was there an attempt to recover from the lows.

Overnight action’s new info…
Initially dipping to fresh lows at 2377.00 stopped even more quickly. The balance of the night has trended up relentlessly, eventually testing this morning’s 2385.75 bias-up signal. The overnight strength’s motivation is presumably the US government funding deal that was reportedly reached near the open.

If, then…
A capitulative break lower was never required, but neither was it rejected. At least, it wasn’t rejected through Friday’s close. Overnight action is threatening to reject the capitulation setup, by proxy of gapping up above Friday’s morning bias environment. One challenge to a recovery is extending higher post-open. But, first, two other challenges — relentless one-way overnight trending is often reversed at the open, especially when that overnight action greets the new week. Gapping up and extending higher anyway would still face its ultimate challenge at 2388.00 resistance, whose recovery would target new highs. Resuming the decline by capitulation or otherwise would next target 2374.00 and 2371.50.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2388.00 would be likely also to trigger this morning’s 2385.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2383.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning good morning and welcome it is Monday welcome to the money market to her at all so may welcome to may may one made a not a distress call there’s Lauda as we talked about the Saturday review out of exchanges that are markets closed today and through the week throughout the week so it’s difficult to get trending going which is good for trying to form a extreme if that extreme tries to form and fails and it’s likely to fail because I’m likely to fail because of the trying to format Friday morning side doesn’t itch or extending higher has to be maintained through the opening 15 minutes overnight 809 that we started looking at concessions of trending down addition to which days with one possible exception which is allowable of consecutive lower closes the up/down crash coming into view long but this first of all the couple days into Friday’s open the couple days prior to Friday’s open just want a cumulative backing and filling with a lower objective outstanding Friday’s Gap download Provo didn’t extend down and instead the balance of the session ended up to neutralize that attraction outstanding without closing but the prior hydra vs. forgiven 5312 at the very least 5121 22