The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday morning’s dip to 2379.00 neutralized the minimum attractions below. The pullback could have extended, and the alternative to extending wasn’t necessarily to recover, let alone recover to fresh session highs. But the pullback recovered to fresh session highs anyway, triggering bias-up and then fulfilling its 2388.75 target. The balance of the session retraced to 2383.00, before recovering almost entirely into the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Similar behavior to the prior two nights is different in one way that suggests optimism remains very much intact. Narrow ranging is breaking higher, but earlier and earlier. Tuesday night had ranged narrowly before trending at Wednesday’s open. Wednesday night’s narrow range broke higher a couple of hours before the open. And now last night’s narrow range already broke higher several hours ago. Trending up since Europe’s opens has recovered from the 2383.50 overnight low back up to yesterday afternoon’s 2388.75 high.

If, then…
Yesterday’s pullback was anticipated, but it could have probed deeper. It still might. The two prior narrow overnight ranges tried resolving up, and were punished for the effort. Yesterday’s pullback did produce at least the minimum, so trying to resolve up again today may succeed. But the open may be a recovery’s only chance to gain traction. Friday Factors could exacerbate its success and rally sharply to attack 2400.00, or else punish its failure by probing back under yesterday’s lows to at least test 2375.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2388.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2389.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2383.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2379.00 bias-down signal.

Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning and welcome it is Friday at Stanford Fridays Morning Market or a quick reminder at the top we have a Saturday review tomorrow morning 9:30 a.m. eastern so hope to see you there are lots of interesting stock action with earnings and earnings reactions so aunt and mornings coming if you want to look at those and see where they’re being greeted if they’re being created from a position of strength or weakness profile announcements this week which is interesting we’re going to go over this tomorrow which is how this quarter was anticipated or approach that should say and how it is being squeezed basically right now this concept is clear because it could have on today that is gradual Improvement interrupted yesterday the other way effectually optimistic sort of by only testing resistance but not ever doing anything with it not closing above it opening at it probably it but not recovering it through element window and here’s the point is I think this template coming into Friday with the Friday Factor cutting both way either way that two days of impending illiquidity if there is an attempt to resume the rally and then attempt to resume the rally fails whether or not 1895 I was tested and held or testing I-75 and then reverse back down under 88 through the open that would be pretty bad if the initial buying pressure is failing that finding new sponsorship retracting his sponsorship then the same optimism that led to such a shallow pull back yesterday as the fighting for the extent of the full-back that same shell and it puts them the reaction down in real close proximity to breaking out of your so where you say is stop short it may not be done there may be more to come so the difference will be I think and weather buy a sub triggers are not if we have it triggered by especially if I step is tested and not triggered not only will we be looking at sliding probably through the morning maybe not the more they fighted I mean there’s so much optimism that they might fight it for the morning and then capitulate in the afternoon but down for the day anyway if there’s any attempt to rally and it fails from 88 rate 9:35 or be if there’s even not an attempt to Rally I just hovering here and waiting too late to try rolling anyway so there’s that too likely scenarios for today and important note being we haven’t ended up just because it’s minimum objective as hell then responded reactive alright keep coming Qualcomm falling 4.2% pre market app reviews on dispute surprising on revenues and earnings alright probably not minimum is fulfilled but I’d still like to see some more backing and filling up rolling lower but I’ll take seriously recovery if it starts getting in the way but I’ll be late to that one as opposed to waiting for those first so probably not going to get before extending higher so this continuation pattern already resolving up and up so I don’t want to buy a dip at this point now it as weakness which also Smoke Filled its minimum objective which was to probe under prior Lowe’s buy still though with the NAFTA unknown renegotiation unknown the u.s. pull out or not no no probably not probably at some point probably has a little more weakness or probing lower than its really closing lowers you can say but again that’s probably going to pull out of NAFTA which I say based on one thing alone and that is big news like that are unlikely I’ll say another thing to its probably going to go shooting to threaten it so at that point or if that’s the case or even a possibility we want to note that the Looney has completed its pull back or its reversal actually so no requirement it’s a little premature at this moment alright is not really needing to retest it’s high but doesn’t have a lot of traction up here I think the risk of one more clothes so not really willing to front of that here alright see if it seemed that way at all but this is probably not going to produce and immediate recovery that’s better there isn’t any requirement that probably

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open was greeted unchanged from Tuesday’s 2385.00 close after ranging narrowly overnight. Neither of which prevented a morning rally to fresh highs attacking 2395.00. Maintaining the rally or extending it was prevented by the rally itself, having originated from unchanged after not gaining traction the prior afternoon. It was doomed to failure, which finally proved out during the last half-hour’s slide to fresh session lows at 2382.00. Bias-up targets were met, and only the morning’s overbought RSIs were left outstanding by a 1-tick miss.

Overnight action’s new info…
Immediately extending Wednesday’s late slide several ticks to 2381.25 ended the leg. Or paused it. Overnight action has duplicated the prior night’s narrow ranging, back up to 2385.00, and back down to 2381.25. Now a surge is testing 2386.50 as ECB’s policy statement takes the stage.

If, then…
Today may yet extend yesterday’s reversal further down. By two consecutive closes above 2375.00 putting into play new highs, the rally can rest on its laurels. Briefly, so a productive pullback will be steep. A bounce has room up to 2388.00 before suggesting the rally is already resuming. Mario Draghi’s press conference following the ECB’s policy statement is a reliable catalyst for expanding volatility. The pre-open Durable Goods report is influential to price action, too, and quarterly earnings remain in full-swing.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2378.00 would be likely to trigger the 2380.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2385.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2386.50 would be likely at least to probe the 2388.00 bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap up to 2377.00 extended quickly to 2387.00 through the bias timing window. The bias environment and noon hour ranged sideways, but the afternoon bias environment exit was probing fresh highs. Like Monday afternoon, no traction was confirmed. And like Monday afternoon, the balance of the session trended back down.

Overnight action’s new info…
The Globex open quickly touched yesterday’s 2382.25 low and began bouncing 4 points. Retracing to within 1 tick of the low also reacted up 4 points. The range remains intact as the initial low is being attacked to within 1 point.

If, then…
Yesterday’s close above 2375.00 put into play new highs. Subject to confirmation by closing above 2375.00 today, too, preferably higher. Pullbacks meanwhile may test 2360.00-2361.00 as support without reversing the trend down, and being able to reinstate new highs. Probing under yesterday’s lows seems likely since yesterday’s buyers gained no traction and the rally hasn’t extended overnight. Delaying a rally effort much longer would be too late to be credible, and would be vulnerable to reversing down sharply.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2390.50 would be likely to trigger the 2388.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2385.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2383.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2381.25 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The bearish WedEX faced the mother of all headwinds Monday, after Sunday night’s open had gapped up 20 points to 2366.00. The influence had a little help, since extending 11 points higher overnight had been largely retraced. And the overnight high had held a test of 2375.00 resistance. Monday morning’s bias environment was exited trending down 6 points back to 2366.00. Immediately reversing up probed fresh post-open highs at 2374.00. The final hour entry and proxy window each failed to exploit opportunities for launching a short-squeeze. The final hour dipped again to attack 2368.00 through the futures close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Touching Monday’s post-close 2368.25 low a couple of times eventually reacted up. Monday’s late high was probed by 1 point to 2375.00 before Europe’s opens. Retracing to 2371.50 has since hovered back under 2374.00.

If, then…
Monday afternoon’s inability to exploit short-squeeze setups suggest the rally lacks sponsorship. This is in addition to Sunday night’s temporary extension of its gap up, and now two consecutive nights of not reacting to Europe’s opens. Closing above 2375.00 would be bullish, notwithstanding the need for confirmation. But probing above it intraday would be vulnerable to an afternoon reversal. Already trending down at the open would have little support below.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2377.00 would be likely to trigger the 2374.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2373.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] hey good morning and welcome it is Tuesday it’s time for Tuesday’s Morning Market or we have a basically either or or perhaps situation I just feel quickly one more look at the bigger picture what’s bigger picture which is this downtrend ever since the beginning of March so basically coming into two months eight weeks or more and the downtrend trying to break higher try to break her from a higher low for my Harlow that stopped optimistically short of neutralizing attractions below so the context is at this is just a correction the context is that wherever this way again it is and it resolves down we’re not looking at this point at lunch and a new Bo Market rally it’s choices are either to hold a test of downtrending resistance touches I typically the last touch the last touch was back here of one two three Wednesdays ago well the f1c minutes that greeted when I tried to Trend higher rent way 375 and collapsed into what is the last most recent down leg of this decline sort of sort of cuz it didn’t make a fresh aloe or if that were to give way than by proxy we look for a complete replacement car doesn’t have any interruptions there and look for an interim complete race me to retest and probably not touch it touch it was tested by Sunday night temporarily getting anywhere maybe because I was today it still requires Wednesday yesterday afternoon through Sunday nights there is 5123 6061 would be the first opportunity for a and attraction and be launching a recovering but we’ll deal with that if we do start saying the reversals alright looking higher unless we get some kind of first we need to get a break about 2375 but after that will give buyers rent for the dad if we don’t see a break then we’ll until we do or certainly going to be monitoring for a break I will be monitoring for any downside probes to gain traction or hold the test of support that gives us a better long entry okay other markets I’ll see last week’s Lowe’s stopped optimistically short of filling the Gap in the prior week’s close so this current bounce likely only temporary the pound if it can get a deeper pulled back in here then we have a higher degree of confidence that the rubber bands been stretched so I can snap but to resume its rally that’s being delayed I mean as that’s being delayed or avoided even if it’s possible that down treading resistance brakes higher any degree of confidence in that needs to needs to be fulfilled before getting too far to the Apex too close to the apex of the triangle breakouts just don’t have a high degree of reliability when they wait too long Looney still looking barish there is I’m going attraction below to a fresh glow under that triangle and then the Euro which of course just was outrageous yesterday Sunday nights that tested the 261 date of the Super Bowl correction that have been forming and tried to treat her Friday and didn’t got their health their 10905 the Line in the Sand was not recovered through the clothes so probing hired today if it doesn’t close about 1 or 9:05 then we’ll definitively call that a near-term top and anticipate then closing back and it went to 860 to test lower for hives back at the last week’s silver bounce back into Friday’s range Freddy’s range which went out testing 1790s pull back limit avoids being considered a break under 1790 despite closing under 1790 but it doesn’t avoid the clock starting to check if that is in fact a narrow shave it needs to be exploited aggressively today so close you about 1790 and just get on its way to recovering 1805 1810 if not also 1818 to resume that rally any delay at this point and exploiting that near saved is not bullish got to get that done quickly or that opportunity lapses meanwhile gold even though it held a couple of try to cover basically bouncing from a couple of soft down Sunday night and then it’s retest ahead of their attack ahead of USA’s open nevertheless I must we get out of of 1280 really quickly today probably going to retest both of those and potentially down to 12 6162 before a better bottom conform long blonde nobody needed safety yesterday and doesn’t look like they’re needing safety today reversing back down the essays open at yesterday’s will see nights open that is Sunday night so I just arranged sideways until yesterday’s Cash station open until socks opened and then rallied so that low is being rejected it’s not yet and break it’s just really yesterday’s open but it that is a big Line in the Sand itself and that is at 1:50 to 26 you need to hold 150 – 26 just to maintain the orbit around the one week old gaffer sorry closing at 1:55 13 that tends to be filled even though it was never confirmed by a second consecutive are closed it wasn’t rejected him had a couple of inside days essentially so the opportunity to reject that hi to break free of its orbit already done this is this should be just skipping off its atmosphere and back back up to it Royal slash consequence this pull back all the way to what in the confirmation of the original bicycle that’s a relevant level it’s been tested a couple days big opportunity for that to hold as support not that it’s going to nothing it has a greater chance of launching a remediate recovery but to start trying I was going to find resistance if it tries at 5055 5065 called 50 60 that’s the big Line in the Sand that likely the first attempt to break higher bounces or reacts down from but then gets out that’s the bicycle that’s actually an attraction it would just be natural to come in here and testes Harlow’s anyway so if the Ruidoso 4930 were to break lower Prima this point having held its just for a couple days trying to resume the decline at this point probably holds so the to buy the two one entry opportunities are after reacting down from 50 60 to find them the next rally Lane that should be the bigger performer or at this point if I initially there is a test of 4890 intraday it may be the most conservative one entry would be let a dip test 4890 and then recovered it close preferably positive that would be the clearest sign that this pull back has ended API is released after today’s close and then tomorrow natural gas confirmed Fridays break out under this is June now what was 313 never 321 confirmed it yesterday with a second consecutive lower close so immediate follow through isn’t necessary but some of that jewelry stores are closed ears alright ending the recording here as we sit at the 23 24 25 which is this morning’s bias up signal still need to get out of a 2377 through the oven in 15 minutes about sylheti to have any greater degree of confidence that buy a simple trigger any questions and I will see you there before they open okay everyone good luck today

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The WedEX signal’s bearish influence began Friday afternoon. That didn’t prevent the morning trending down from 2352.00 to 2345.00. Its last gasp was reversed down suddenly at noon, extending through the noon hour to touch the afternoon’s 2340.75 bias-down target. The bearish WedEX influence didn’t prevent a favorable knee-jerk reaction to headlines on tax reform plans to be released within days. But the noon hour entry wasn’t recovered, keeping the afternoon flat-to-lower.

Overnight action’s new info…
French election results precipitated Sunday night’s open gapping up 20 points to test 2366.00 and extend to attack 2373.00. Consolidating down to test 2365.00 had recovered into Europe’s opens. Fresh highs a couple of hours later have attacked 2377.00.

If, then…
Friday’s low originated at obligatory support, triggered by an artificial catalyst. The burden of proof was left on buyers. They seem to have delivered, at least for the purpose of avoiding an immediate collapse. That collapse was necessary to end the decline constructively, which isn’t being accomplished by leaving another gap outstanding. Meanwhile, a corrective bounce would find resistance at 2375.00 (discussed during this weekend’s Saturday Review), which is now being tested. Suddenly by gapping up, just as the WedEX’s bearish influence is scheduled to resume. And we’re assuming WedEX was mildly influential Friday afternoon, so its influence Monday morning should be aggressive. Trending back down through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would help to confirm, or at least not trending any higher than the open. Otherwise, the morning will be vulnerable to trending up throughout.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Bias parameters derived from recent patterns are far removed from this morning’s open.