The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap up didn’t even touch Wednesday afternoon’s high. But bias-up was triggered and the gap was maintained. The 2345.50 bias-up target’s attraction restarted the rally as the bias environment began lapsing. That started a rally into the afternoon bias environment’s 2358.25 high. The rally’s next higher objective at 2355.00 was neither confirmed nor rejected through a relevant timing window. The close eventually drifted back down to 2352.00, whose break through the close would have rejected the test of 2355.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Hovering narrowly at 2352.00 support had begun firming to greet Europe’s opens at 2356.00. But that was only retraced to attack 2352.00. Now a bounce is attacking 2356.00.

If, then…
NOT closing above 2355.00 did NOT put into play 2360.00-2361.00. But that does NOT preclude it being tested. The setup DOES make it difficult to exceed 2360.00-2361.00 if tested, and difficult to reverse if exceeded. Fresh overnight lows would have to be substantial to reverse momentum down into the open, and to avoid testing 2360.00-2361.00. Meanwhile, the bearish WedEX’s afternoon influence is looming, and it’s possible that yesterday’s rally was exaggerated by expiration jockeying.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2355.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2357.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2352.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2349.75 bias-down signal.

Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning welcome it’s Friday it’s time for Friday’s Market or its expiration that’s interesting it is expiration after a tremendous rally yesterday what was the session long Miley behavior well I said she Long Valley Behavior that didn’t trigger above the prior afternoon Hyatt triggered at the open it triggered at the noon at the bar beside it into the noon-hour above the noon hour so interesting interesting that I timing Windows strike even the expert on his own time in Windows can learn something from his own timing windows and maybe that is a new set up and I’ll be testing for it which is interesting because it brings out some other instances of similar to Clines it started late set up here anyway produced a lady looking likely to follow through just applying some such a long valley principal or characteristics to this following session because it’s Echelon the rally will tend to extend into the next morning not necessarily durably which is interesting as well because overnight is it react it wasn’t rejecting what yesterday’s clothes didn’t reject them that was testing 23 5555 if exceeded would next Target 6061 and that was calculable couple days ago actually that last Thursday as we were bouncing had that taken off that was the next objective 6061 it happens now go to be coming siding with this down sign it down trending resistance from the highs interesting show 2355 if it is closer to put that in the play already 6061 instead it’s not in play it also wasn’t rejected 2355 was still being tested through relevant timing Windows now the clothes could have dipped under 52 and by proxy had explained it so 55 did hold 52 Hill so little is much pressure is could have been expended without rejecting 55 was expended and by the way the test at 35 and windows so that extending hired to test 66210 it’s not actually in play on play but if it is tested it’s tested from an unstable base basically that window needed to extend higher it didn’t at least it did expend all available energy all selling pressure that is without reversing down so there’s that justification to snap back up that set up the snap back up and it isn’t being rejected overnight to let something weird happens pretty open and this drinking time prior to the open today actually took a rub down under 45 that holds under 45 idealizing pressure to expand Justin get to support and then be expected to extend them which isn’t so unless that happens 6061 likely to be tested the question is whether it succeeded 360 60 1 Word a hold an early test this morning like 55 held its late test the likelihood is that we react down from there and trim down from there especially since there is a baritz wed x number the Barons FedEx Signal like I said it has nothing to do with Thursday Thursday can change it by getting up high enough it didn’t otherwise the bearish wed x signal tells us that price action into and out of the weekend Friday afternoon or Monday morning he is likely to trim down we’ll see if we have 61 going to be a little suspicious of that bearishness coming but if 6061 is tested this morning and it’s already reacting down into the new down especially but we acting out into negative territory there’s whole lot of ground done had I can be covered in the afternoon as well by the way I don’t mean to discount or at least dismiss the potential for extending R23 6061 is take it out the next time jective is the last Touch of this down training resistance the last touch was that f1c minutes couple Wednesdays ago fomc minutes reaction there happens to be over but are inside at that first time at standing got a big influence but Wednesday we were to get into a door but it would be big attraction so there’s room to 75 and higher 6061 is taking out on a timely basis alright go ahead and post them before they open today we do have a Saturday review tomorrow morning don’t forget set up here it set up this is day 3 that would have been like had a close to higher than the second as high as opposed to dip and back down into its range that did happen to neutralize the gap bad to back to Wednesday’s close so downside attraction is neutralized that doesn’t prevent extending down anyway in fact we have extended down any way back down to 107 25 which is the bicycle that was triggered sort of but not confirmed so we’re not looking for one around here the ones that if we do know other than closing to 107 25 or 8 we diminish the upside momentum still need to close under-16 8506 92 reverse it down with the euro is that if there were up for today it would likely fail and likely fail so much as to close negative Lily is really followed through on it cell signal and it’s a traction back down to the Lowe’s lower level or ventral little close is outstanding I don’t have a set up and won’t have it set up maybe we’ll have something in here I mean you can just sort of C resistance for me but that shirt is really still being Consolidated and in The Odyssey still attracted to really needs to fill this Gap as I said at the time even though we knew there was a overdue corrective bounce coming to at least 75 50 that that’s no way to to form a bottom but leaving a big gap at staying like that so it’s quickly on the way to being traced silver gave way it already closed Tuesday under the 1830s pull back on it it’s been a couple days covering their yesterday’s break under it at least held 1790 support member that was a big objective on the way up still holding it overnight so at this point clothes back about 18 18 closing back about 1818 would be considered again has a Buy Signal as credible for ancestry test in the hive will probably be launching the rally higher highs or lows gold meanwhile I’m really really took the edge off from sellers win Wednesday’s drop fill the gap and held it and by hovering there yesterday suggest that there’s some backing and filling to the upside probably fill in the Gap that to the 1294 area before any kind of down so I can be that credible huge huge close up here needs to be filled it’s not required before some downside downside Target cell signal Target and now we’re just waiting the target met quickly help quickly this just go to signal in here that requires extending that any deeper the quick reaction down for meeting at 5355 Target or at least quickly holding it not a lot of back in feeling here does suggest that it can be rested even in the most Bears scenario but no active natural gas once again holding 313 cell signal so keeping a lot of potential for about to 327 before the job is completed if there’s a question and don’t forget about tomorrow

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s gap up above Tuesday’s 2345.00 high hesitated to extend higher. That was the clue its rally was vulnerable to failure. Fulfilling “unfinished business above” at 2347.25 and holding its retest reflected shrinking sponsorship for the overnight rally. The balance of the session trended down to within a tick of Monday’s 2331.00 open — which had been tested already from a fresh high Tuesday. The session’s decline was relentless, but only gradual, never with any capitulative momentum. Sellers gained traction through the afternoon. WedEX has triggered passively bearish.

Overnight action’s new info…
Initially firming back up to 2336.00, that’s where a narrow 2-3 point range greeted Europe’s opens. That triggered a surge which extended higher to test 2341.00 by 2 ticks. Now the extension is being consolidated back down to what is this morning’s 2339.25 bias-up signal.

If, then…
Tuesday’s low already had retested the 2331.00 starting point of this week’s rally. And its retest had resolved in Wednesday morning’s fresh high. So, there’s no bullish reason to revisit Monday and Tuesday’s low. Extending down this morning might find obligatory support at Sunday night’s lows, but their test would likely resolve down. Meanwhile, extending down could be delayed by a corrective bounce, but not much higher or for much longer than what has been produced already last night.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2341.00 would be likely to trigger the 2339.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2337.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning welcome so it’s Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s Morning Market or quick housekeeping note at the top did you get any mail overnight asking for any final comments or remaining comments at least on the quality of the Adobe Connect platform any conectivity issues are you being dropped I don’t want you to think it’s necessarily you I’m looking for any reason not to use that to commit to Adobe so that we don’t commit to the wrong or something happy to try any other so two questions did you get an email regarding this last night from the to make sure that you see all the point that I’m covered in there to judge your thought process on your experience with the new platform the platform at least they’re testing and then also what feedback can you give me a second I was recording I love according facility will be going away if we go to Adobe it will it was necessary with any meeting because of a feature like a flaw in their product that Doe B and a dozen other platforms don’t have so don’t feel like I’m looking for Rosie scenario and I’m surely not looking for you to bend over backwards for me so whatever it is you have as far as he back please show interesting as I said in the market yesterday on your protective gear this ongoing I can’t yet say decline but ranging which we’re now at the back at the lower end of and actually not at the lower end of which is what makes it even more ominous shopping optimistically short and a couple of instances that just don’t need that kind of coddling to 3 weeks ago and a half weeks ago we had this decline that fell into 2317 Target area and bottom and we knew it I bought them because testing 17 to within three checks and 27 which was another relevant level who covered back about 31 which was the relevant level of the hole that whole leg member that number so it really into that fomc minutes release that didn’t wasn’t taken too well and since then has been trending down at least trying to down into Friday this week started optimistically by gapping up it’s just not an appropriate end to that Lake but anyway it’s retest is required required to prevent extending her anyway very optimistic overly optimistic Monday throughout the day well that was traced back to lease back to Monday’s open 2331 opening print Monday love that level 23 31 level that was recovered three weeks ago that was well that was Monday that was wrong with through 51 was tested on Tuesday and then recovered I was just at that point if 31 is so relevant and substantial and I know that because it drops origin rally again back through that retest which was yesterday morning well there’s just no bullets reason to be revisiting that level again which is what yesterday’s to climb so that it should be broken and now the number one electives of that break was eventually coming such as we testing 2317 actually 2321 being the opening at 2311 bring the room for no such as predictive indicators one stay away from nothing like that actually but that’s the expiration indicators other bells and whistles to the app that can still come in and sign it or sharpen it but the wind direction to get her saying that Friday afternoon and Monday morning will be better Behavior Ashley this is a horrible spot on the chart for Behaving Badly remember it doesn’t apply to today today actually further informed that indicator or can I ask for today we’re rallying overnight or railing to the biceps of the biceps of those 3925 is also resistance of 41 we went to that is quite a bit it’s triggered triggered and there’s about the rubber band and that’s if that’s maintained through the open which there’s no Assurance of it triggering any way alright so I stacked it or as far as strategies this morning we’re going this is active bounce assuming they’re down down side resolution so any indication that resistance is holding is a reason to look at Short entry the immediate opportunity of traction below would be to fill the Gap that he has his clothes yes his cash or some clothes acquitted to 3450 basically the lower end of the overnight range unlikely tested so we’d even be looking for fresh Lowe’s tillers game traction that’s a pretty good news if that were developed compared to the bias up signal triggering which which is called that resistance is right about here so really good risk reward too short and we will be looking for short entries as far as upside I use the neat thing about upside if there is any if this is going to be extended by triggering the 395 buy a then because the trend is down the upside moves should be pretty rough and steep so very limited exposure time too long but the more attractive downside potential is on short levels on screen as we get into the open alright very very very fast and furious alright Tuesday silver gold and the only reason why it might not be ready to extend its to climb is because it did fill a gap essentially yesterday and hold it that often needs some backing and filling like to fill the Gap that to Tuesday’s close before was all day long but which I should get rid of this because it’s a big cell signal 2 weeks ago or we can have to go down and didn’t even threaten this cell signal on Friday Thursday or Friday or Monday extended and this needs to be 24 only

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Gapping down Tuesday held the overnight low and quickly rallied, essentially filling the gap back up to Monday’s 2345.00 close to within 2-3 ticks. A consolidation ended at the same moment that the bias environment began lapsing. Reacting down from 2341.00 probed fresh session lows that attacked 2330.00 at noon. Recovering back 2341.00 through the afternoon bias environment held through the close. Each post-open downleg stopped just short of invalidating the morning’s 2347.25 bias objective, which is now “unfinished business above.”

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late 2341.00 peaks were being prodded and probed before Europe’s opens. The prodding and probing continued through Europe’s opens. But not for much longer, as a surge has broken through to touch 2345.00.

If, then…
Recovering Tuesday morning’s 2337.75 bias-down signal has kept the door open to extending its afternoon recovery. Not recovering 2337.75 until the afternoon bias environment has kept the door open to rejecting the recovery, all but ensuring fresh multi-week lows. Escaping that downside attraction — and compensating for the delayed 2337.75 recovery — requires rallying aggressively. Already firming overnight is a start, but gapping up to and/or through 2345.00 resistance must still extend higher through the open. Especially if the 2347.25 outstanding objective is neutralized. Otherwise, that buying pressure will only have stretched the rubber band to snap back down.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2345.00 would be likely to trigger the 2341.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2337.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning and welcome it’s Wednesday instead for Wednesday’s Morning Market to her not a terribly interesting overnight session as far as volatility trading opportunities at cetera maybe we’ve got a sending trying I said maybe because it’s really and consequential landlocked in here surrounded by the price action and I don’t like to look at patterns internally there as a continuation parents reversal patterns typically or part of the bigger patterns so isolated missile triangle doesn’t really do any good but it does give us a focal point this is lower price lower price of the triangle happens also be to 2341 4125 peek of yesterday’s recovery into the bathroom I’m an exit which was a retest of the origin of that last down like that begin instantaneously with the Morning by its environment exit they didn’t extend higher either through yesterday’s final hour or the 310 320 proxy window which would have led to a rise to the clothes so it’s real if there happens to be a dip pre-open wouldn’t expect one Post open of consequences one or I’m sure that will cover it or if it’s tested it’s not like that anyway Monday’s close it’s not just Tuesday night or Monday night’s High 47 that just retested that that happens to a bit as a Monday’s close to buy a sub signal for the next morning natural resistance here or a calculable resistance test all the stuff thrown at the market which is the reason why we have the door still open during these attempts to reject what was put in the that gives us knowing that we got the attraction above and in that context sellers try to reverse and they fail at 10:30 they fail at noon to the relevant level at that time 35 they put all that probably going to be probably through Monday has that played out and it certainly looks at the picture what is here at the High thanks to the snap boat being called yesterday but that upset attraction is neutralized so unless there’s a second consecutive are closed today that made likely be at at least for topping or backing and filling for the pound and in the Aussie which went out testing and cell signal trending that even deeper overnight silver gap down slid continually gravitating back up to 1830 yesterday really needs to recover that pulled back limit there is no requirement to extend any hotair just a likelihood based on the pattern type it its placement versus prize no extent was the highest Target need to close a bug 1294 to put into play any higher highs in fact the putting a plate 1311 me welcome it is now hard 1297d and that’s being probed overnight tonight really getting follow through to that long bone is not going to reverse down suddenly from this fresh High but the bigger question is whether it’s going to extend higher and basically confirmed break up because this is a multi session rain here Friday to Monday and crude oil which broke maintained its prey kinda overlapping 52 or attacking 5270 the cell signal if there’s a break confirm today by a second cuz I get close then 5065 is employee reports this morning and natural gas eia report tomorrow it’s flirting again with 313 cell signal didn’t actually closed under it all right here and I’ll see you before the open please put any questions in the good luck today .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
[Still seeing a miniaturized chart? Please contact me ASAP for the fix.]

Through the prior close…
The week began optimistically, and not a moment too soon. An otherwise narrow overnight range around Friday’s ~2325.00 close broke higher just two hours before Monday’s open. Gapping up to 2331.00 soon surged to the morning’s 2337.25 bias-up target. Despite the weak-handed timing of the pre-open break, eking higher from there exited the afternoon bias environment with another surge. The last thrust retested the 2345.00 origin of Friday afternoon’s decline.

Overnight action’s new info…
Almost an exact, albeit inverted, replica of Sunday night’s pattern. Ranging narrowly included a momentary pierce of fresh highs at 2347.00. Europe’s opens triggered a 10-11 point slide to 2334.50. Its reaction has bounced up to 2342.00.

If, then…
Sliding overnight has been limited, so far, to a single leg. And that single leg hasn’t yet retraced deeply enough to reject yesterday’s rally. But it’s close. Viewing yesterday’s midday “eking” as if a Running Correction — bookended by surges into and out of it — offers two resolutions. Either that was a corrective dip which now allows yesterday’s rally to resume, or else another downleg will begin soon with the objective of probing under Sunday night’s lows. Either of these should be obvious through the open, or else the morning may find itself ranging narrowly around a gap down.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2344.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2347.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2341.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2337.75 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2334.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
[Contact me ASAP if you have any difficulty viewing the recording,
or if your chaRTroom display is still miniaturized.]
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s flat-to-lower trending had pierced Wednesday’s 2333.50 low. But firming into Friday’s open surged into the bias environment to 2345.00. And held. Until the bias environment began lapsing, and the likelihood for a bullish Friday morning was satisfied. The balance of the session trended down, into the weekend to fresh lows at 2324.00, levels not seen for three weeks.

Overnight action’s new info…
It’s been an unremarkable night, fluctuating narrowly around Friday’s low between 2322.75-2327.00. The narrow ranging IS remarkable, considering the sudden stability at the extreme of Friday afternoon’s slide, and for hovering back at three-week old lows. But stability isn’t necessarily strength, and not quickly rejecting the trending is essentially an endorsement of it.

If, then…
Last week’s bearish pattern was its intraday and overnight drops that were continually retraced only to their origins. That was also last week’s bullish pattern — at least, the potential for reversing those recoveries back above their origins. The bearish pattern won, most recently from 2345.00. Reversing that pattern takes one of two paths. Either probing even lower and steeper before recovering that day or the next, or else gapping up and running. The former setup would target 2321.00 or 2311.00. The latter setup would gap up to and/or through 2336.00, and still face a challenge at 2339.00-2341.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2327.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2322.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2321.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] Alright good morning good morning and welcome Alright good morning good morning and welcome it Monday at 4 Monday Morning Market or of the two or is now being recorded exclusively almost exclusively and the Adobe format a if you are unable to view this entirely or having difficulty with it that you haven’t told me about last week please tell me about that today we actually do have a backup going on the Isle of the old format just to be safe but I have heard any complaints about the recording so I’m assuming there’s no complaints about the recording so we’re going to be dropping the eye Lowe’s facility shortly if I don’t hear back anything else if your display issue if you’re still not getting full screen contact me directly and I’ll work with you directly on that resolution and so very simple resolution they don’t have the control and the dashboard control panel of their product apart from that it’s okay as far as the market what is a nice to bility right you know it’s a leading question I’m going to climb or at least a break lower let’s go back a little bit there is basing or let’s just call it ranging into and out of the weekend but that range is actually coming back to the Lowe’s of last Wednesday afternoons we actually have a few minutes and then breaks leg slow where’s Walgreens Friday having tested Wednesdays intraday Lowe’s overnight bounces in the morning and then gives it all back and trans have fresh flows into the Easter holiday weekend which is itself not usual It’s Not Unusual let’s just say it’s the ordinary but it can happen and trades down to not through but to stopping optimistically short raps of the three week old 3 week old Lowe’s and it’s not like there’s anything about the choirs breaking lower but if we’re going to be getting into its orbit there happens to be a gap down that Monday 3 weeks ago 2321 that oughta be filled at the very least and room for noise under it by 10 points to 2311 in this particular pattern so looking at that in context stopping optimistically short of the prior of course we expect there to be a lower Pro but also the assumption that the markets basically trying to leave with us or is forced to leave with us because buyers and sellers are meeting each other and not finding or trying to find buyers of a much lower level or buts find sellers on a much higher level there’s a narrow range this stability should not be considered a sign of strength opposing the drop that is under way that indecision is almost at Acid endorsement of the decline of the trend that in decision that inability to reject the stage for so long so many times already so it’s going to be I think the opportunity Cigna so so I’m 21 recover the body can put it off saying that makes it stronger sponsorship that can recover but that’s just from the indecision here backing up stretching that rubber band snapped back down or already looking for a and didn’t do anything several days of that came through and 1855 323 to launch New Deli in the interim having closed above 319 does have potential to test that Gap up to 327 that’d be a lot healthier of a bounce of a correction on the way down to Fresh Lowe’s all right here except for the TSA at the front at the top of keeping it under 10 minutes and goes to get it down even more so there’s anything that you’re saying I need to elaborate on more or not meeting let me know alright hope everyone had a great weekend great holiday see if the open