The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
[Test the Adobe version here (Apple users must use the “Puffin Browser”)]
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday afternoon neutralized the morning’s no-bias trending by bouncing back up to its 2344.25 bias-down signal and to its 2346.00 10:15 print. That bounce itself was no-bias trending, and required being retraced to the afternoon’s 2343.50 bias-up signal, if not also to the 2341.50 1:20 print. Done, and done. But despite neutralizing the downside attractions, the balance of the afternoon ranged sideways into the close. More so, another bias parameter test was left outstanding above by Wednesday’s “inside day” ahead of a three-day holiday weekend.

Overnight action’s new info…
N. Korea triggered some anxiousness with a cryptic announcement. That didn’t so much trigger sellers, as it inhibited buyers. Either way, fresh lows fell to 2334.50. A bounce recovered all the way up to Wednesday’s last relative high at 2344.00. But Europe’s opens only renewed the earlier sentiment, sending price to fresh lows at 2332.25.

If, then…
Trending into a three-day holiday weekend isn’t likely if not already underway by Wednesday morning. And it’s often finished by Wednesday afternoon. This Wednesday was an inside day, albeit inside Tuesday’s session which did probe under the prior several sessions’ lows. Now three-week old lows are being attacked, and it’s no easier to attract new sponsorship. That suggests gapping down — especially if fulfilling or holding a relevant level — may launch an intraday rally. But that’s only a brief window, and not bottoming through the open would more likely decline through the morning. Alternatively, simply not triggering bias-down would likely establish a bottom.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2331.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2333.00 bias-down target at 10:15 and renew the bias-down signal next targeting 2327.25. Exiting the open under 2336.00 would be likely to trigger the 2338.50 bias-down signal.

Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning and welcome it is Thursday at 7 for Thursday’s Market or it’s a holiday shortened week sellers are making the most of it they could have made more of it the fact that they’re making anything of it so late in the week as far as not accelerating at least is one thing that suggests they’re not going to make a lot of it today that may be wrong and I’m going to tell you how it could be wrong first of all quick housekeeping please this is really our last day to try the Adobe recording When you see the link to the Eye Lopes recording please try the Adobe recording should be should be good if your own and I if you are listening to this on an iPad need to download apparently the Puffin Browser Don’t make me say that again okay Puffin Browser and that is apparently the way to listen to Adobe recordings on iPhone or iPad but make sure you can do that we’re also going to work out the resolution the size of the screen today as well I posted that solution yesterday if you didn’t see that I’m going to post it again today and we’ll make sure that works appreciate it alright so Wednesday greetings from the morning so I couple of days into Friday that’s interesting was the first to be under 4220 exactly all the way were traced back to the final hours I just not getting any pressure trend remains intact downtrend Lowe’s in there and it’s being productive and just real quickly we’re going to look at this in the bigger picture she can see there was an attack on 2017 effectively testing it within 3 weeks ago the gap down to 2321 interim support at 2327 probably headed to 2327 lower after already probably lower a couple nights and then probably lower intraday probably had at least 23 27 if not also 2321 the Gap three-week-old Gap and then the room 423 11 the reason why I’m not sure I don’t think it’s because of the holiday weekend so that’s rally out of here at least at this stage and then the euro which has 105 50 outstanding likely except for one thing and that is actually starting to decline this bounce failed and it hasn’t yet rolled back over basically back under the one of those 6:30 level with a witch without being tested yesterday got some interesting action overnight that is potentially dating were traced if not largely or if not entirely then largely I want to see how that plays out before determining whether the next leg of the euro is resuming its decline extending it down to 105 50 or put it in a bigger belts gold sharply higher the next to our targets 1284 and was tested overnight and then 1294 being attacked up to 1297 to you can see the resistance of 9070 1294 excuse me now that 9070 is been touched 1294 remains in place along is pulled back hold 12 8825 preferably 1287 at least at least 1287 silver also sharply higher exploiting that it least went out testing 1830 if that actually recovering it yesterday so the bond with miss this opportunity on Friday 5204 Target extended higher wouldn’t reject this is another reason why I think the market is overnight same day

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
[PLEASE TEST THE ADOBE RECORDING OF THIS MORNING’S MARKET TOUR]
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Other than Monday’s session developing entirely in positive territory and Tuesday being entirely negative, there were interesting similarities between the two. Monday included a 16-point plunge off of the morning’s highs. Tuesday began by plunging 18 points to 2333.50. Both were largely recovered — Tuesday bounced back up to 2349.00 — into their afternoon bias environments which then ranged choppily sideways into the close. The most glaring similarity is that both intraday plunges were only retraced, but not reversed.

Overnight action’s new info…
Surging out of Tuesday’s close quickly pierced the open’s 2351.75 high by 2 ticks. Price began reversing down almost as quickly, but not very deeply, down to 2346.50. Gradually firming from there rallied through Europe’s opens to fresh highs at 2356.50. Now another pullback is probing back into yesterday’s range, dangerously close to the overnight lows, down to 2346.50.

If, then…
SPECIAL PROGRAMMING NOTE: I WILL BE UNAVAILABLE 10:30-2:30 ET (after the market’s first hour, until the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing). The chaRTroom will remain open throughout, and audio will not return… Last week ended with two overnight probes under the 2345.00 area. Recovering each before the next cash session open prevented the bottom from falling out. Tuesday’s probe under the 2345.00 area was intraday, which now requires its immediate rejection to avoid extending the decline. Greeting Wednesday’s open in rally mode is the first step. Last night’s rally teased at it temporarily, unlike the current dip. There’s only a little time for another rally effort before the open, and the alternative could require trending down to 2321.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2349.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2344.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2343.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
[IGNORE MY REQUEST TODAY TO TEST THE ADOBE RECORDING]
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Not already trending down at Monday’s open had signaled that the current range is bottoming. Rallying through the open to attack 2363.00 had marginalized strong-handed sellers. A pullback was expected, regardless of its catalyst, which happened to be a headline about Chinese troops amassing at N. Korea’s border. The drop to 2347.50 was recovered to within 3 points of the morning’s high. On a bullish note, that triggered bias-up to create new “unfinished business above” at 2362.75. Also, the close was in positive territory. But closing under the morning’s high doesn’t yet signal the pullback has ended.

Overnight action’s new info…
Price action has been contained within the range of yesterday afternoon’s recovery. Barely. Globex began by trending back down to touch yesterday’s 2347.50 low. The balance of the night firmed back up to yesterday’s 2352.50-2353.50 close, which is still being tested now.

If, then…
Probing Monday above Thu-Fri ~2361.00 highs has created a new threshold for the rally potential to remain alive. Tuesday’s open should so what Monday did not, by quickly recovering back above the probed highs. That’s not at all assured. Already rallying overnight was the likeliest path to fulfilling this bullish template. The open is still two hours away as of this writing, and price being unchanged is in proximity to start rallying. Unfinished business above at 2362.75 and 2364.50 would be the likely objectives, but opening lower could instead allow a new downleg to begin anyway.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2350.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2349.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2346.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2359.00 would be likely to trigger the 2357.00 bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s missile attack had triggered a 19-point plunge from 2356.00 to fresh lows, which was recovered entirely overnight. Impressive. Also too bad, at least for the prospects of rallying Friday morning, which sorely missed that buying pressure. Whatever buying pressure remained was spent probing positive territory and 2357.50 resistance, attacking Thursday’s highs up to 2361.50, only to close slightly negative.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open blipped-down to 2350.75 and then was soon reversed back up to 2359.00. Already reacting down greeted Europe’s opens hovering unchanged at 2353.50-2355.00. That resolved down aggressively to 2349.75, but only briefly, now being retraced fully back up to 2355.00.

If, then…
Unfinished business above remains outstanding at 2364.50. And it’s likely to be in-play today if the open isn’t trending down. Almost any delay in trending down would be very likely to begin rallying out of the range today. Meanwhile, absorbing yet another attempt to trend down would be difficult at this stage, and likelier to launch a downleg that initially targets 2321.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2356.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2357.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2351.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2350.25 bias-down signal.

Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] optic return alright pretty tame or at least it’s in a Range fluctuating pretty widely in a range and it has touched at least one relevant level that one I mean if it’s touch both by his parameters they’re relatively tight for today 5025 below and 57 above This is the overnight action first flipping down 250 150 75 with coming to 59 basically consolidating here around 57 centered around 57v bias up signal that’s the Apex of this consolidation that resolved down to test 5025 B test the open Zillow right after I recover there’s a little congestion here where your UPS opens were greeted so irrelevant timing window it’s not it’s not unlikely that Monday especially big on Monday it is especially vulnerable to not trippin at all and if we’re greeting the open but here is unchanged to 5250 here’s a range literally Friday’s weight range which is essentially Encompass the entire day of the overnight action here’s an apex that’s natural resistance you know if this isn’t resolving through the open we may very well I’m not very well but we made it rain sideways through the day or through the morning having said that the likelier scenario actually is the trend so long as sellers aren’t in control which I’m not ready to dismiss at this moment so long as sellers are in control through the open that essentially doesn’t always put it in this set up a centrally defaults to being bullish to being flat to hire but having reacted or almost rejected this initial rally back to the low overnight lows back into negative territory at this late stage not yet trying again that keeps the door open to resolving down we should we want to be aware of that in this bigger picture that has failed for a couple 3 Days To recover that has given the lower end of the range the dangerous into the range under 45 couple of scares even profresh Lowe’s overnight you the only one there they could be proved without already reversing down there’s just no more probing a fresh Lowe’s no more threatening the lower end with that actually following through flat tire this morning come through this resistance trainer by ass up and even Riley this morning unfinished business at 6450 is just the beginning of the rewards for buyers that absorb that otherwise actually dipping not buy the fault actually dipping actually chipping away it’s Port triggering bias down does have a lot of downside ahead that gets fit in to these several days of the holiday shortened week before a bullet seasonality picks up Wednesday afternoon okay let’s look at the more kids starting with currencies was he was down fresh close on Friday so it’s not likely to or slightly depressed in the morning maybe getting a little overdone the pound isn’t totally gone yet that’s just one break a pretty big break really break in a singular break but not rejected one more lower close in this pattern and we put off that retest of Monday’s high for a while Louie big failure up here it’s an ongoing at the one called a cell signal is not bullet to be below it going to be holding its test but that hasn’t quite resolved the end new downtrend and finally the euro which really avoid it finally on Thursday actually already started breaking what had been just too long of a consolidation with out yet that is testing the maximum pull back without yet reversing backup there’s a consequence the bicycle becomes lower but I hear it’s lower in the Friday’s close friend extremes not likely to avoid fresh Lowe’s on Monday this stunning lower in silver Friday afternoon has recovered a minimum 1820 1818 1820 even suggest momentum is reversing up you know whether it’s pretty good support here at 1790 remember that was the minimum objective of the break Tire should I know it’s just one day it’s a big break under many many prayers but from above them and so unless there’s a second consecutive lower close that is closing even lower than Friday there is not likely or at least we can’t rely on that was all them down gold meanwhile also gave up a free Superior position just to come back first of all feeling to hold its a pullback them at 1262 and really it’s preferable but back then it was even 12 6530 but 1262 should be recovered today if the rally is resuming anytime soon meanwhile there’s a pretty big test in its place or a pretty big Line in the Sand at 12:50 to 52.62 and that’s being tested here coming into the open Long Pond has not switched it the way it was Justin’s has failed every attempt to exceed what was the original Target 152 oh 21204 now hovering around a cell signal that has already been shipped away this one actually intersection it intersecting with it or anything like that just a Line in the Sand it’s break 15112 still has to contend with which to have taken them with 150 24 that’s where there’s any greater degree of confidence that momentum is reversing down crude oil is up to the reaction hives or attacking the reaction hives from Thursday night Syrian missiles American missiles into Syria and that whole way that holster was a little suspect in the inlet and anyway which it didn’t it was corrected entirely but there was potential for that leg leading up to that face to be reversed back down anyway 250 65 so until closing but 53 and relieve the next subject of his 5355 anyway that is the original Target of this late the minimum Target 355 put until 3:55 or until 53 that is covenants are not going to get cut short for a deeper pull back and finally natural gas again I don’t have any set up here so are being met our highs or lows we call their Doctrine alright once again this is I was recording platform which we’ve been using for quite a while but a year we’re going to be switching from it after this week after we’ve had the opportunity again to test the new recording facility for the that is inherent to the Adobe facility to the W platform that is if you haven’t watched the recording for the Saturday review please do so make sure that it or some of it just make sure it feeds through find your device and we’ll have another one or two this week for everybody to test before jettisoning the silos platform let me know I’ll see you before the open today

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s initial rally attempt was likely to fail, at least to probe back under Wednesday’s plunge lows. Attacking 2344.75 to within 1 tick sufficed, and allowed rallying into the afternoon bias environment. The 2364.50 bias-up target was attacked to within 3 points, and then reacted down 9 points. The afternoon ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report wasn’t really paralyzed by anxiousness. That would have been bullish. Instead, repeatedly retracing higher highs back down to 2350.50 made fresh lows likely. A bounce into the 3:10-3:20 proxy window met its 2354.00 objective, but only fluctuated there into the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Fluctuating at 2354.00 became fluctuating around it, probing up to 2356.50. Then came the missile strikes in Syria, triggering a 19-point plunge to 2236.75. That’s fresh lows for the week. The knee-jerk reaction up to 2349.50 eventually stabilized there. Surging after Europe’s opens has extended to attack 2356.00, retracing every last tick of the missile-triggered plunge.

If, then…
Now we know why that last sell signal appeared yesterday afternoon. It’s now being reported that “chatter” had begun already about the impending air strike. The reaction’s plunge re-retested last week’s lows. Isolating it to the overnight is still capable of launching a substantial rally — targeting yesterday’s 2364.50 unfinished business, Wednesday’s 2375.00 overbought RSIs, and higher. Of course, the re-retest isn’t an optimal bottom. Dismissing the redundancy to being only a headline reaction doesn’t often dismiss the market’s urge to play it out. “Good” news out overnight about Greece, and the Employment Situation report comes pre-open, two catalysts that could change the conversation to allow a recovery, at least opening above 2350.50 and preferably already above 2357.50. Otherwise, not rallying through the open and not holding yesterday afternoon’s 2349.50 low would target 2321.00 and 2321.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] There are no preliminary indications ahead of an Employment Situation report.

Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.]