The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sliding overnight into Wednesday’s open had threatened to break under Tuesday afternoon’s 2357.50 lows. Its test held, and so did the morning’s 2356.75 bias-down signal, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2366.00 bias-up signal. The morning’s rally stopped ticks short of overnight highs at 2363.25. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways. Choppily, as in absorbing a 6-point plunge in reaction to the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes release, which might have derailed an attempt to resume the morning’s recovery. The outstanding 2366.00 became “unfinished business above.”.

Overnight action’s new info…
Of the possible scenarios I described yesterday for actual action overnight, none of them played out. Not that action developed in any other way. Instead, nothing has actually happened, at all. At least, not until very recently. An ongoing 1-point wide range greeted Europe’s opens, where firming has extended to pierce yesterday morning’s high up to Tuesday night’s 2363.75 high.

If, then…
Although none has played out, the possible scenarios for overnight action are still viable. The likeliest path remains testing 2366.00, and then reversing down from its test. Econ reports and Fed speakers scheduled before the open are capable catalysts for triggering a gap down — no less capable than was yesterday afternoon’s FOMC Minutes, whose steep immediate impact makes it all the more a failure for its complete retracement. So, unless the open is gapping down under yesterday’s lows, I’ll be reluctant to short prior to probing fresh highs.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2364.75 would be likely to trigger the 2362.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2358.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The bullish WedEX followed-through from Friday’s influence to the next cash session’s morning. Gapping up to 2353.00 extended higher to attack the 2365.00-2366.00 renewed bias-up target to within 1 tick. Reacting down 9 points was recovered entirely to actually touch 2365.00 just before the close, neutralizing all outstanding attractions above. Reacting down again almost 7 points into the futures close still held above the session’s intraday lows.

Overnight action’s new info…
Fluctuating narrowly around the 2360.00 futures closes eventually rallied to greet Europe’s opens at the cash session’s 2362.50 close. A 2-point surge attacked 2364.00, and then began reversing down. And down. Attacking yesterday’s 2355.75 low had tried bouncing, but that is now resolving down to attack 2355.00.

If, then…
Having neutralized all remaining upside attractions yesterday, the rally’s future depends on creating more bullish influences. Opening today would attempt to do that, creating “unfinished business above” at the gap back to yesterday’s close. A shallow gap that’s still within the orbit of yesterday’s close could be attracted back up to it. A deep gap could launch a mutli-session correction before eventually recovering. Last night’s dip is threatening the latter. We can ignore yesterday’s last-minute plunge as being disassociated from otherwise rallying into the close. So, gapping down under the afternoon bias environment’s 2357.50 low could form a “session-long decline” that trends down through at least tomorrow morning. Avoiding that deep of an opening drop could still find stiff resistance up to 2366.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2355.00 would be likely to trigger the 2356.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2359.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Holding a test of Friday morning’s 2337.75 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of its 2348.25 bias-up signal. That context aided the bullish WedEX’s afternoon influence. The morning’s consolidation broke higher during the afternoon bias environment, into a last-minute touch of 2348.25. The new high close didn’t qualify as a new trend high close despite being above Wednesday’s trend high close, since Friday’s high was under Wednesday’s high — Wednesday’s high wasn’t even breached until after coming to within 3 minutes of the cash session close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s modest gap down dipped to 2346.00 before starting to recover, extending to attack Wednesday’s highs up to 2350.50. Then a midnight surge attacked 2355.00, and a brief consolidation resolved in another surge attacking 2357.00. Retracing the entire surge back down to its 2349.50 origin Monday morning has since ranged sideways to attack 2355.00 again, and now again ahead of today’s open.

If, then…
After influential Friday afternoon, the actively bullish WedEX signal seems to have been influential Monday morning. But the real influence is on US price action, which has yet to resume. The “new Globex trend extreme” adds an attraction above, in addition to pre-existing pattern measurements next targeting 2365.00-2366.00. This morning should be focused on the upside, unless the open is already rejecting Friday’s last-minute surge.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2356.25 would be likely also to trigger the 2355.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2350.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

In this morning’s pre-market Tour, I listed the incorrect econ reports for today. They are post-open, and only LEI is both high-profile and has a track record of influencing price action.
…Rod

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s backing-and-filling was likely after having surged for five consecutive sessions since a breakout, and then entrenching the trend with a bullish WedEX. Drifting overnight still greeted the 2348.00 open up 5 ticks from Wednesday’s cash session close, and then surged 2 points. Sliding down to 2336.75 probed under the morning’s bias-down signal and also neutralized “unfinished business below” from Wednesday. The balance of the session bounced choppily up to 2347.25.

Overnight action’s new info…
Initially dipping to 2343.00 was recovered entirely up to 2347.50. But only momentarily before giving it all back, and greeting Europe’s opens back down at 2343.00. And that was only momentary, too, as price soon broke sharply lower to within 1 tick of Thursday’s 2336.75 low. Its reaction has bounced to test 2341.00.

If, then…
Wednesday’s rally had gained traction for its efforts, which wasn’t invalidated, so it should still be fulfilled by probing higher. The bullish WedEX also suggests probing higher, or at least recovering from any dip. The first influence should inhibit a durable drop, and the second influence should facilitate firming or rising through the afternoon. Neither of which prevents the morning from consolidating, if not also backing-and-filling to lower levels.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2342.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2339.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2338.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s weak open duplicated Tuesday’s opening weakness. No-bias was triggered without touching either bias signal, but a late break above the 2336.50 bias-up signal extended anyway to 2343.00. Satisfying its required retracement to within 2 ticks at 2337.00 was deep enough to resume the rally. And the afternoon’s no-bias signal was again no impediment to breaking the 2342.25 bias-up signal to 2349.75. The rally gained traction for its effort, despite the “unfinished business below” back down at 2342.25 and possibly 2341.00. Wednesday’s post-close surge up to 2351.50 duplicated Tuesday’s last-minute short-squeeze. WedEX triggered actively bullish.

Overnight action’s new info…
Globex immediately dipped back down through Wednesday’s 2349.75 high, and gradually extended to within 1 tick of the 2346.75 cash session close. Hours of ranging sideways back up to 2349.75 finally probed lower to test Wednesday’s last-minute 2346.25 low.

If, then…
WedEX triggered actively bullish, easily. And the session ended ultimately in a short-squeeze. Yet, it was the first session in a week to leave “unfinished business below.” The contradiction is mixed signals only if one is left outstanding. The no-bias trending origin at 2341.00-2342.25 can be neutralized easily Thursday morning, and a consolidation can preserve energy until needed to fulfill the bullish WedEX Friday afternoon. Avoiding the dip and pause to resume rallying immediately could lead to an inverted WedEX that collapses into the weekend. For now, it’s Occam vs. Pavlov, i.e. Dip and pause is the likelier path higher, until disproved by rallying immediately this morning.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2351.00 would be likely to trigger the 2349.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2346.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.