The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Defensive posturing ahead of Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report had slid 12 points to attack 2696.00. That created room for a favorable knee-jerk reaction, a 12-13 point surge back up to Thursday’s 2709.00 high. That’s a lot of volatility, but it was all within the prior afternoon’s range, including a relatively narrow overnight range. So, trending beyond the range wasn’t likely, especially if not done early. The early trending attempt did probe fresh highs up to 2716.00, and triggered a late bias-up, which fresh highs through the 10:30 grace period confirmed. But its 2719.50 bias-up target became “unfinished business” as price eventually retested the overnight low down to 2695.50. The last hour’s surge ended at 2704.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging has only narrowed, despite another aggressive start. Sunday night’s 2699.00 open immediately retraced 61.8% of Friday’s late surge, and immediately reacted back up to probe positive territory, and to once again find resistance at 2708.00-2709.00. Sliding into Europe’s opens tested and retested 2701.00, only to recover 2709.00. Price is currently unchanged at Friday’s 2704.50 close

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s late surge qualified as a second consecutive close above 2701.00, confirming the rally’s next higher objective at 2756.00 is in-play. None of which prevents an interim detour with room down to 2656.00-2666.00. If anything, Friday’s narrow ranging around 2701.00 makes a pullback likely, and last night’s narrow ranging makes a pullback likelier. Even suddenly trying to rally this morning would be suspicious, and the burden of proof would be on buyers until maintaining a breakout through a relevant timing window.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 within the 2701.00-2708.00 range would be unlikely to trigger either bias signal this morning.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open had reversed down from probing Wednesday’s 2690.00 high to probe 5-6 points under the 2681.75 earlier Globex low. The reversal formed a potentially bearish Globex-flip setup, but it never confirmed under Wednesday’s 2674.25 last relative low. . The reversal was delayed so long it had developed a Too-late to break setup that offered an opportunity to recover. The recovery opportunity was exploited by a morning-long rally up to 2708.00, meeting the rally’s next higher target at 2701.00. was met. Perhaps inhibited ahead of the post-close AMZN earnings and anxiousness ahead of Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report, the balance of the session ranged flat-to-lower down to 2693.00. Late comments regarding China trade negotiations triggered a surge attacking 2708.00 through the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sympathy with AMZN’s reaction to its warning was overcome by more China trade headlines that pushed price up to attack 2712.00 until the Globex open. Gapping back down to 2708.00 ranged sideways, nearly recovering while also eking out a deeper pullback to 2701.00. A relatively narrow 2701.00-2708.00 range has since contained price action, perhaps paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of this morning’s Eployment Situation report.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Thursday’s late surge was early enough to have recovered 2701.00 before coming within 3 minutes of the cash session close. Closing above 2701.00 puts into play the next higher objective at 2756.00. Despite the catalyst for its recovery being a headline, 2701.00 doesn’t seem to be at risk of an opening rejection. Nevertheless, a second consecutive confirming close today is vital to maintaining the upside momentum. Otherwise, today could be devoted to only backing-and-filling, without reversing the trend back down, which would have room to 2656.00-2666.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary indications are considered before an Employment Situation report.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday had been likely to probe above Tuesday morning’s 2650.00 high, but probably only to 2653.00. That essentially inverted  when the open was greeted above 2653.00. Its reaction down to 2647.00 support recovered into a 20-point rally into the noon hour. Defensive posturing ahead of the FOMC’s policy statement had pulled back to 2655.00, better enabling the news reaction to surge 29 points to 2684.00. The Fed Chair’s Q&A extended that to attack 2690.00, which was finally enough. The final hour dipped to 2674.25 and ranged narrowly into the close, perhaps inhibited ahead of MSFT and FB post-close earnings.

Overnight action’s new info…
Similar to AAPL after Tuesday’s close, reacting favorably to MSFT and FB post-close earnings beats enabled futures to greet the Globex open testing 2683.00. Gradually improving from there back to yesterday’s highs eventually probed higher to attack 2692.00 before midnight. Flat-to-lower ranging since then has drifted back down to attack 2681.00, which the earlier Globex low had done already.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
CORRECTION: My early departure on Friday has been delayed by one week. This week will finish out normally… Closing above 2666.00 from under 2656.00. puts into play 2701.00 (subject to a second consecutive higher confirming close Thursday, which could already fulfill 2701.00). Or, not. Having closed above 2666.00, gapping down under 2656.00 Thursday would reject Wednesday’s upside momentum. Gapping down isn’t currently indicated, but only closing back under 2656.00 would still qualify if combined with another reversal setup — like a Globex-flip setup that would form by maintaining an open under the earlier Globex low after having probed yesterday’s highs overnight. Any downleg would be compared against the 1-1/2 week-long Ascending Triangle that tried breaking out yesterday.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2690.50 would be likely to trigger the 2687.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2680.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Opening flat Tuesday at 2642.75 didn’t inhibit wide-ranging choppiness. Rallying up to 2650.00 and dropping down to 2638.25 was already volatile. But another bounce through 10:15 collapsed to within 3 ticks of overnight lows at 2629.25. Trending never arrived but the choppiness continued, perhaps inhibited ahead of AAPL’s post-open earnings. Dips recovered to 2644.00, and a late-afternoon dip to 2633.50 only recovered to within 2 points of unchanged at 2641.00. A retest of oversold RSIs at the morning’s low was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
AAPL’s earnings “surprise” wasn’t much, but it was the opposite of Monday and Tuesday’s warnings and misses. Its favorable response triggered a surge through the Globex open that probed Tuesday morning’s low by 1 point up to 2651.00. The pattern since then has largely tracked the prior night’s choppy ranging, probably becoming inhibited by this afternoon’s FOMC events, although last night’s range is actually widening. Reversing back down to 2637.50 bounced to 2647.00 and repeated; reversing down again attacked 2636.00 and bounced to now test 2648.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Probing above Tuesday morning’s highs wouldn’t have been surprising. Yesterday’s post-close AAPL reaction might have fulfilled that potential, so repeating it this morning would likely extend at least a little further to test 2653.00. Sponsorship for much higher than that might be difficult to attract as this afternoon’s FOMC events grow nearer. Not probing higher, or quickly rejecting an early probe to avoid triggering bias-up, would create an attraction back down near yesterday’s low, which could retest yesterday’s low, but also lack sponsorship for digging any deeper before FOMC.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2648.50 would be likely to trigger the 2647.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2645.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Trending down relentlessly overnight often finds no reinforcements at the intraday open, but not Monday. Perhaps thanks to a last-minute 10-point collapse triggered by NVDA’s warning, and already weak overnight greeted Monday’s open down 25 points. That was extended to within 6 ticks of 2625.00, which was later probed into noon down to 2622.00. Reacting up through the close ended at 2643.00 while still overlapping the 2638.50 opening print — like Friday, Monday’s close overlapped the open. No new unfinished business was created.

Overnight action’s new info…
An early dip has been recovered entirely, indicating almost a flat open. Globex had immediately begun retracing Monday afternoon’s bounce, by much more than 61.8% down to 2628.50. Firming into midnight then surged to 2640.00, but retraced 61.8% back down to 2632.00 through Europe’s opens. One more high was recovered back to unchanged at 2642.75, not indicating either a gap up or down.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Almost any overnight weakness was likely to resume the decline through 2625.00. Weakness through Tuesday’s open would get that benefit of the doubt, too. And there’s still no bullish reason to revisit 2625.00, whose probe through a relevant window should find an air pocket likely targeting 2605.00. Perhaps even deeper to compensate for the delay in breaking under 2625.00. Rallying first would have room up to 2645.00-2647.00 before suggesting a bigger detour underway.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2635.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2633.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2640.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2645.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.