The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s correction from testing its 2103.00 bias-up signal was exacerbated by the afternoon’s incident in California. An extra downleg originated during the afternoon’s no-bias environment down to 2075.00. That left “unfinished business above” at the untriggered 2091.00 bias-down signal, if not also its 2094.50 1:20 print. A couple of recovery attempts formed from RSIs diverging positively, but they couldn’t get past 2084.00 as it had become too late to recover.

Overnight action’s new info…
2084.00 was tested and retested until Europe’s opens triggered a break higher. Unfinished business above at 2091.00 was soon attacked to within 3 ticks. Its consolidation around 2088.00 has resolved up optimistically to 2095.25 ahead of this morning’s ECB policy statement (and Draghi’s press conference).

If, then…
Closing yesterday above 2088.00 was required for the rally’s resumption to remain likely today. The exacerbated decline came late enough to inhibit a recovery from attracting sponsorship. So, by proxy, this morning’s open can compensate for the delay by opening above the last relative high, That’s 2095.25, which has been touched. So, the open is certainly in position to resume the rally. The most bullish scenario if NOT extending higher through the open would be to spend the morning backing-and-filling to test 2084.50 as support.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2092.25 would be likely to exceed the 2088.00 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. The renewed bias-up target is 2095.25, and exiting the open above 2099.00 would be likely to renew it, too. Exiting the open under 2084.50 would be unlikely to exceed the 2088.00 bias-up target through 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Like the overnight rally’s correction before it, Tuesday’s opening surge indicated that the session was breaking the pattern of its recent range. The surge to 2097.25 was reversed down 13 points, a shock to the system needing to be absorbed through the afternoon. That prevented the rally from gaining traction, but it didn’t prevent the final hour from resuming the rally to fresh highs at 2101.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Hovering narrowly at Tuesday’s high suddenly spiked up to 2104.50. That hasn’t been extended during the 6 hours since then, as the ranging simply shifted higher. But it might be rejected, as Europe’s indexes are testing session lows. The initial range’s 2101.00 upper-end which has been support is now being pierced down to 2099.00.

If, then…
Yesterday’s action was bullish for extending the rally, but not necessarily for resuming it immediately. The late surge’s sponsorship was weak-handed since it originated after buyers had failed to gain traction. Gapping up is the only path to extending the rally without first correcting down — and probing fresh highs overnight doesn’t assure a gap up. This morning is likely to be spent probing back into yesterday’s range, rejecting any bounces. And there is no assurance of resuming the rally today, so there is no assurance of confirming yesterday’s breakout.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2098.50 would be unlikely to trigger this morning’s 2103.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2092.50 would be likely to trigger the 2095.50 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s rally to 2095.00 had suggested the rally was ready to resume. But a pre-open dive fell to 2083.25 through Monday’s open. And that extended down to 2080.25 through the morning. An afternoon rally stopped 1 tick short of retaking control above 2088.00, and the balance of the afternoon reacted down to test its 2079.00 objective.

Overnight action’s new info…
Actually, the 2079.00 objective was met before Monday’s last half-hour began. That left ample opportunity to extend down. Not exploiting it had made an overnight rally likely to attack Monday afternoon’s 2086.00-2088.00 highs. In fact, they were being probed into and out of the Globex open, extending to attack 2093.00. Too much, too soon, as that was retraced by 61.8% down to 2083.50. Its recovery up to 2090.00 is now dipping back into the 2086.00-2088.00 range as support.

If, then…
Reversing down overnight doesn’t change the rally’s signal for resuming, which is to open to and/or through 2086.00-2088.00. In fact, the overnight rally’s 61.8% retracement down to 2083.50 is constructive. And the overnight pessimism is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, following two consecutive overnight rallies that evaporated at the open. All of which the open must exploit immediately, or else find another window remains open to attacking last week’s lows.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2088.00 would be likely to trigger the 2086.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2084.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
THANKS TO ALL WHO HELPED TEST OMNIJOIN
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
The traditional post-Thanksgiving early close started by dipping. But holding the 2084.50 bias-down signal’s test put into play an offsetting test of the 2090.00 bias-up signal. The upside objective was fulfilled, but only probed briefly, as volume was evaporating into the early close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open dipped initially to attack 2084.50. Extremely narrow ranging broke lower at Europe’s opens to attack 2082.00. That was recovered almost as quickly on Chinese intervention, and then some, back up through Friday’s high to 2092.00. that extended to a fresh high attacking 2094.00. Its reaction is attacking 2090.o0 as support.

If, then…
Last week was greeted by the vulnerability to a correction, based on upside objectives being met and timing ahead of the holiday. A correction did develop, both by price dipping and by not yet resuming the rally. Timing and price influences are no longer corrective — at least, the door is open to resuming the rally, which doesn’t require anymore delay or backing-and-filling.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2091.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2094.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2094.75 would be likely tor trigger the 2094.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s pre-Thanksgiving session followed tradition by almost literally dying on the vine. Volume and participation evaporated, leaving no sponsorship for trending away from 2088.00. The only thing at all surprising was the limited trending attempt that morning down to 2083.25.

Overnight action’s new info…
The window for a correction having ended, the rally was free to resume. Seemingly, it did so Wednesday night. Price had firmed by ranging flat-to-higher. But Europe’s opens Thursday triggered a 10-point rally to test 2098.00. Thursday night’s Globex session retraced that surge, to 2083.25 into Europe’s opens. A bounce is ranging narrowly between 2088.00-2091.00.

If, then…
If the rally is ready to resume, then Wednesday night’s action into Thursday should be resumed today. But the open should behave as if Wednesday night’s attempt was premature, and not delay repeating it. Light volume traditionally allows price to drift in one direction or the other into the early 1:00pm ET close. Although not as likely, that could still be down if the bias-down were to trigger.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2088.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2084.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2091.00 would be likely to trigger the 2090.00 bias-up signal.