The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s gap down to 2490.50 was in recovery mode from having attacked Tuesday night’s 2452.00 low down to 2462.50. Its blip-up to 2493.00 began collapsing almost immediately to probe fresh lows down to 2447.00. Recovering almost all of it by noon proved only temporary, as the balance of the session trended back down. The close was overlapping the morning’s low down to 2443.00, after having stopped optimistically short of even touching it during the final hour.

Overnight action’s new info…
Firming through the Globex open up to 2456.00 was reversed to probe yet more fresh lows down to 2438.50. But only temporarily, as firming again was consolidating up to 2462.00 by midnight. And that soon resumed its recovery to attack yesterday’s highs up to 2487.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Stopping optimistically short of retesting Thursday morning’s low had made the overnight dip likely. Its probe was relatively shallow and brief before reversing back up into Thursday’s range. Although just another version of optimism, it hasn’t been ineffectual. That hasn’t prevented rallying so much into so weighty of a report as the Employment Situation report. It’s yet another version of optimism, and potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective. Potentially. Maintaining the open back above Thursday afternoon’s ~2474.00 high could form a “session-long rally” setup. Meanwhile, touching yesterday morning’s 2489.00 high during the open would require its recovery to be maintained, too. Rejecting either setup, or both, would have a lot of room to expend selling pressure before challenging yesterday’s lows. But a deep enough retracement this morning would remain vulnerable to extending down into the afternoon.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary indications are considered ahead of Employment Situation reports.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s open spiked up and surged to attack Monday’s intraday high up to 2521.25. Overnight action plunged under Friday-Monday’s range down to 2452.25. Greeting Wednesday’s open at 2468.00 and extending back up to 2520.50 through the afternoon bias environment was quite a different texture from the overnight plunge. But the intraday rally stopped short of reinstating the bear market rally, waiting too long to close above Monday’s ~2510.00 intraday highs, and then only by 1 point while still being overlapped. No “unfinished business” above was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
AAPL’s post-close warning has created another overnight plunge to greet a second consecutive session. Wednesday’s late 18-point bounce back to 2511.00 resistance suddenly collapsed down to 2489.00 on the headline. Globex gapped down further and immediately tested 2471.00-2473.00. Flat-to-lower ranging included a blip-down to 2463.00 that only attacked Tuesday’s pre-open low, still 10 points above Tuesday’s overnight low. Recovering to 2481.00 into Europe’s opens has only reacted back down toward the low.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Ultimately, Wednesday’s session wasn’t predictive either way. Which is yet another version of Sunday night and Monday’s sessions, now all three lacking predictive value and directional resolution. Last night’s gap down remains within Tuesday night’s range, which could still hold as support. Its reward would be fresh highs at 2525.25 (Wednesday afternoon’s 2521.25 bias-up target remains outstanding). Meanwhile, the longer that probing under Wednesday afternoon’s 2495.00 lows isn’t recovered, the vulnerability increases to evolving into a deeper decline.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2487.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2489.50 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2490.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2501.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s gap up to 2505.50 was only a 61.8% retracement back to Friday’s late high, suggesting its buyers weren’t strong-handed. Firming overnight up to 2512.50 held within the retracement’s range for noise to suggest nothing different. And Monday’s open overlapped the morning’s open and 2504.50 bias-up target through the first 3 15-minute checkpoints to suggest that trending wasn’t likely. In fact, the session ultimately went only in circles, choppily fluctuating between Friday’s close below down to 2482.75, and the overnight highs above. The close was overlapping the 2505.50 retracement open, confirming that buyers weren’t strong-handed.

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s final minutes had dipped to 2488.00. Wild year-end mark-to-market volatility had triggered a 25-point surge snapped back up to through the close to touch 2513.00. Tuesday night’s open surged again to probe Monday’s highs up to 2521.25. By midnight, that had been reversed back under Monday’s lows down to 2479.00. Sliding sharply through Europe’s opens extended to 2452.25. Its reaction consolidated up to 2471.00, and then broke higher to 2478.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
If the for any higher high remains alive, then it’s likely to be by a wide margin, and not only to probe a fresh high. Meanwhile, the scenario for already having ended the temporary corrective bear market bounce seems unwilling to wait any longer. Its potential was discussed throughout Monday, with vulnerability to a year-end drop as everyone realizes the bounce into Thursday’s highs was the product of big money having front-run each other already. And if the timing were delayed, then its likely appearance would come earlier today rather than later — and the potential for first probing fresh highs is no longer part of the template. So, already reversing down shouldn’t find much more interim strength than to test Friday-Tuesday “higher prior lows” as resistance before extending down. Otherwise, any more strength through the open that isolates the overnight dip would suggest that the dip was being absorbed by a bigger rally.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2477.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2483.25 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2490.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2493.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s close barely lost 5 points from Thursday’s 2492.00 close. Not for lack of trying, with two overnight probes of higher highs, and a third higher high Friday afternoon. The last peaked 2 points short of its potential to 2525.25 before attacking the morning’s low down to 2477.00, and closing at 2487.00. Three higher highs, one intraday, yet each reaction down barely probed into negative territory. Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs were on the cusp of being overbought at the late high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s Globex reacted immediately to the weekend’s favorable China trade tweet from Trump. The open’s gap up retraced 61.8% of Friday’s late drop at 2505.50. Flat-to-higher ranging has recently extended to 2512.50 — still 2-4 points under the retracement’s room for noise, and under Friday’s high.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
With apologies to Eliot, 2018 seems poised to go out not with a bang, but with a whimper. This could be the effect if the algorithms (i.e. hallow men) are turned off while their human oversight is less available. Gapping up and essentially trending up all night has barely even attacked the room for noise back up to Friday’s high. I don’t interpret this muted upside as being potentially bullish restrained optimism, not yet. A lot of buying pressure was expended intraday Friday to prevent its reactions down from becoming a downleg, and that ineffectual optimism may yet have bearish consequences. Meanwhile, Friday’s fresh afternoon high neutralized any structural unfinished business above. Technical unfinished business above at the high’s simultaneously overbought RSIs may still retested up to the calculable 2525.25 objective — neither one prevents a downleg while outstanding, and could enable a downleg/collapse upon being neutralized. All of which is within the context of a temporary bear market rally from last Tuesday night’s 2317.00 low, and the possibility that year-end institutional buying has front-run itself to already be done. Again, I point to the muted overnight gains  has been a temporary bear market rally. Extending higher anyway could extend to the next higher bounce potential at 2548.00-2556.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2507.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2504.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2499.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2495.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s record-setting rally pulled back overnight, but not until after probing a fresh high up to 2481.50. Its reaction down to 2422.50 greeted Thursday’s open during a bounce up to 2445.00. The morning’s lower low at 2412.50 also bounced up to 2445.00. The afternoon’s lower low attacked 2396.00 to within 3 ticks. Any lower would no longer be only a correction of Wednesday’s record-setting rally. Meeting and holding corrective limits enabled the rally to resume, which Thursday’s last 60-90 minutes exploited fully. The minimum likely objective for fresh session highs above 2445.00 was doubled, attacking 2499.00 through the futures close — 102 points off the low.

Overnight action’s new info…
The surge’s initial reaction dipped to touch Wednesday’s 2477.75 high. Channeling higher into midnight probed fresh highs attacking 2506.00. Its pullback to 2582.50 hovered there waiting for Europe’s opens, which had a bullish effect. Now another upleg has come within 6 points of the next higher objective at 2519.25. Its reaction down is testing 2506.00 as support.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Resuming and extending the rally today was likely to target 2525.25. Greeting the open there, or quickly meeting it, could induce the next reaction down. And the next reaction down need not be limited to just being a temporary correction. In other words, the rally from Tuesday night’s 2317.00 low can still qualify as the correction, as the bear market rally of an ongoing decline. Such is the potential influence of Friday Factors, which may already be responsible for yesterday’s portion of the recovery attempt. Not already reversing down by 9:45 could instead see the Friday Factors have a bullish influence. Extending to 2548.00-2546.00 or potentially 2606.00 could still qualify as only a corrective bear market rally.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2498.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2502.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2505.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2517.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2514.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.