The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday morning’s rally developed after the open had held the 1950.50 biias-up signal. The no-bias trending was invalidated by exiting the bias environment above the 1955.50 bias-up target. That tends to reflect serious intent, and a mid-day running correction resolved by surging up to 1973.00. Buyer had gained traction already before the close softened to 1967.25.

Overnight action’s new info…
Dipping initially to 1962.75 was recovered 10 points to within 1 tick of yesterday’s 1973.00 high. Another dip attacking 1964.00 is now recovering back to 1970.00.

If, then…
Gaining traction is usually rewarded by trending the next morning, or after being delayed until the afternoon, in either case targeting 1977.00 and 1185.00. The overnight ranging keeps alive the potential for a post-open rally. Expiration’s influences are keeping things lively, and a morning pullback could attack yesterday’s 1957.50 noon hour low. That would have to be done early to maintain its potential for being only a detour, and not a deeper drop targeting 1950.50 or lower.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1964.00 would be likely to trigger the 1966.50 bias-down signal. Already under 1957.50 at 9:45 would be likely also to exceed the 1959.75 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 1970.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Holiday-inhibited volume didn’t help to defend Sunday night’s rally to 1964.75 from being retraced entirely before Monday’s open, or from being reversed into Friday afternoon’s range after the open. But the open quickly fulfilled and held its 1938.00-1939.00 potential. Then the holiday-inhibited volume prevented attracting sponsorship for more than a temporary bounce or to attacking 1945.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Overnight action didn’t initially seem inhibited, firming to 1949.50. But that was retraced back into negative territory, back under Monday’s lows, and deeper into Friday afternoon’s range back down to 1935.25. But an accumulation pattern centered around 1938.00-1939.00 has broken higher, surging to 1946.50.

If, then…
I was looking forward to yet another bite at the 1938.00-1939.00 apple. Its support has held for several sessions, and now again overnight. And the reactions there are more reflective of accumulation than of chipping away at support. Not that this morning’s action will resume trending, with participation still a little thinner. And yesterday’s buyers didn’t gain traction. So, gapping up only to test yesterday’s highs without exceeding them could spend the balance of the morning backing-and-filling back into yesterday’s range. So long as its lows hold, the week’s biggest rally leg can develop.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1938.00 would be likely at least to test this morning’s 1935.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 1943.50 would be unlikely to test bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Gapping down Friday to retest Wednesday and Thursday’s 1927.00 support once again held through a relevant timing window to establish the range’s lower-end. The balance of the session “rallied” to the pattern’s 1949.00-1950.00 objective — “rallied” to the degree that its intraday uptrend could be considered trending within a larger range.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open immediately resumed Friday’s rally, extending to 1964.00. But that soon peaked, and eventually reversed down to probe negative territory at 1946.50 ahead of Europe’s opens. That proved overly-cautious, as a quick recovery to attack 1960.00 has ranged choppily sideways since then.

If, then…
Buyers didn’t gain traction for their efforts Friday, so extending higher immediately this morning requires gapping up. So, reacting down without reversing the trend helps to maintain the optimism. But if the rally isn’t resumed post-open, then that restrained optimism can quickly become pessimism and drive price back down to well within Friday’s range.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1955.50 would be likely also to trigger the 1953.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1946.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s wide-ranging session missed an opportunity for buyers to gain traction. Its rejection offered an opportunity for sellers to gain traction, but that was missed, too. The session’s final minutes dipped to unchanged around 1933.00 before bouncing slightly into the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Initially extending Thursday’s late bounce another 7 points to attack the 1949.75 within 2 points. The excess was retraced back at 1942.00, where Europe’s opens triggered a slide that has extended down to 1927.50.

If, then…
Thursday’s action suggests trending is unlikely, although the wide range does allow normal noise to be pretty productive without actually trending. The morning’s bias tends to persist through the noon hour on Fridays. The prior two Fridays gapped open and ranged choppily intraday, but  didn’t trend. So, bias-down would be credible if triggered, but a range bound session would more likely hold the bias-down signal’s test so that the overnight high’s would become required.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1930.00 would be likely also to trigger the 1932.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open back above 1937.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
(Values have been updated to Dec pricing, which becomes the front-month at this morning’s open) Gapping up Wednesday to 1977.00 resistance couldn’t resume the overnight rally, but easily retraced it, and by a 2-point margin down to 1956.25 through the morning bias environment’s exit. A noon hour bounce to 1965.00 was obviously weak-handed resolved down to 1941.00 through the afternoon bias environment’s exit. That neutralized unfinished business outstanding from Tuesday, but wait, there’s more… Another downleg plunged to 1926.25, essentially turning a 29-point rally into a 29-point loss.

Overnight action’s new info…
A relatively slightly lower low at 1924.00 couldn’t attract sponsorship to resume the decline, and prices firmed into and out of midnight. The firming accelerated and extended to test 1947.00 into Europe’s opens. Then things got interesting… A plunge to 1933.50 was soon recovered to fresh highs attacking 1958.00 — which is interesting enough, but that surge has been retraced entirely and then some back down to 1932.00, probing under yesterday’s close.

If, then…
My premise at yesterday’s close was that sellers were most vulnerable. After neutralizing downside attractions, the decline not only extended but plunged, at a time when extreme sentiment tends to be a sentiment extreme, i.e. capitulation. And that still didn’t put into play any lower objectives, since sellers didn’t gain traction for their effort — only the bias environment exit was under its prior timing window’s low. So, did the overnight rally fulfill that premise and neutralize it? Its peak was a 61.8% retracement of yesterday’s intraday drop, which qualifies it as a correction. But that was overnight, and its retracement does allow the intraday crowd a bite at that apple. They’ll have to greet the open already in rally mode to prevent the latest overnight leg from gaining its own traction and resuming yesterday’s drop.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1941.25 would be likely also to trigger the 1939.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1935.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 1926.50 would be likely to trigger the 1928.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.