The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Rallying Monday depended on rallying quickly. Opening at 2098.00 just above Friday”s lows instead quickly collapsed to retest the 2093.00 overnight lows. Not only were overnight lows retested, but they were probed down to 2089.50. Recovering back up to 2098.00 was reversed even more substantially down to 2080.00. The afternoon”s consolidation formed a large triangle that broke higher to 2091.50. Potential down to 2077.00 was ignored, and the relevant 2084.00 level held on a closing basis.

Overnight action”s new info…
Sideways ranging got choppy into Europe”s opens. A dip to 2085.00 was recovered to 2093.50. That has been retraced gradually, and entirely, now probing fresh lows attacking 2084.00.

If, then…
Just putting into play yesterday”s 2088.00 bias-down target was likely also to visit 2084.00, and potentially 2077.00. Having probed 2084.00, closing back above it suggests that the decline is ending, and not just getting underway. Gapping open under 2084.00 could contradict its recovery, at least putting into play 2077.00. By the same token, confirming yesterday”s recovery by maintaining positive territory through any timing window would launch a complete retracement back up to prior highs.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2084.00 would be likely to trigger the 2086.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2088.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday”s range was choppy, but trending attempts in either direction failed to extend. Overnight action had twice probed above Wed-Thu 2104.25 highs, greeting Friday”s open from above 2108.00. That didn”t prevent sliding immediately back into the range to 2099.00. The noon hour”s probe above 2104.25 reversed down more deeply to attack 2095.00 before bouncing into the close.

Overnight action”s new info…
Sunday night”s “pattern” is the nearest thing to a random walk that I”ve seen on the screen in quite awhile. A flat open hovering under 2105.50 suddenly collapsed to attack Friday”s late 2095.00 low. Gradual choppiness pierced lower and lower to 2093.50 through Europe”s opens. A 9-point surge to 2102.50 was retraced almost as quickly back down to pierce 2093.50. Its retest didn”t react up as much, but price action has settled in around unchanged.

If, then…
Overnight selling pressure hasn”t been less overwhelming and more ongoing. Sellers haven”t thrown a lot at the market, but their throwing has been relentless. All of that effort hasn”t had much impact. If this sounds familiar, that”s because Friday”s choppy ranging was similarly ineffectual. It”s not too late for sellers to take greater control, but a bullish resolution becomes likelier as the open grows nearer without any rally efforts being absorbed .

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2099.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2095.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2093.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2101.50 would be likely to trigger the 2105.50 bias-up signal.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Having met and held its 2088.00 target during Thursday”s immediate drop, the balance of the morning ranged back up to its 2095.50 bias-down signal. This made me suspect that buying pressure was overwhelming lower attractions. In fact, the balance of the session rallied back to Wednesday”s 2104.25 FOMC-reaction high. But the rally didn”t gain traction for its effort.

Overnight action”s new info…
Very narrow flat-to-higher ranging from 2101.00 suddenly surged up to 2107.00 just after Europe”s opens. That was gradually retraced back into the earlier range, and then through it. Now a fresh low is attacking 2099.25.

If, then…
Having failed to gain traction for Thursday afternoon”s efforts, gapping up would enable the rally to resume uninterrupted and possibly also to extend considerably higher. Meanwhile, having trended up into Thursday”s close, gapping down under the afternoon”s 2098.50 low could form a “session-long decline” setup targeting at least a probe under Thursday”s lows.Regardless, this being a Friday, the morning”s bias tends to persist through the noon hour.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2096.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2098.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2108.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2105.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning”s no-bias rally had been required to retest its 2091.50 bias-up signal, despite that rally having extended higher to attack 2099.00. Optimism ahead of the afternoon”s FOMC news couldn”t be bothered with resolving that, and greeted the news from 2096.00. As quickly as its knee-jerk reaction blipped-up 6 points to 2102.00, it was reversed down to 2091.50, Having neutralized the attraction below, rallying into the final hour probed fresh highs testing 2104.00. But the final hour itself ranged sideways back down to 2099.00.

Overnight action”s new info…
Room for a pullback was allowed down to 2096.00. It was tested twice after otherwise listless narrow ranging. An errant tick during its second test touched this morning”s 2095.50 bias-down signal, which reacted up into a rally up to fresh overnight highs at 2103.50. Without touching yesterday”s actual high, a reaction down has dipped to 2099.50.

If, then…
Having chipped away overnight at the 2096.00 pullback limit, attacking it through the open would be vulnerable to sliding through it — with its nearest objective being at least 12 points lower. Not touching it until after the open would more likely find its supportive power replenished, and capable of launching a new rally leg. Gapping up would also be credible for resuming the rally.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 2098.00 after testing 2096.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2095.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2094.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2108.00 would be likely to trigger the 2105.50 bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday morning”s swing warned that powerful upside sponsorship was arriving. Exiting the morning”s bias environment above its 2072.25 opening high rejected the no-bias environment. Its offsetting test of the 2060.00 bias-down signal was attacked only so much as to fill the gap back to Monday”s 2061.50 cash session close. The rejection”s 2080.50 target was fulfilled on the way to renewing the afternoon”s bias-up targeting 2088.00. The session”s entire last timing window hovered there.

Overnight action”s new info…
Tuesday afternoon”s 2085.00-2089.00 ranging finally began resolving upward just ahead of Europe”s opens. The choppy gains have been consolidating up to 2093.00, centered around the initial surge”s peak at this morning”s 2091.50 bias-up signal.

If, then…
Gapping up without reversing down through the open would get a benefit of the doubt for extending higher through the morning, but wouldn”t assure any particular reaction to the afternoon”s FOMC policy statement. Gapping down or a post-open dip would make an afternoon rally likelier.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2095.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2091.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2082.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.