The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
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o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday”s open gapped down 4 points to test
2070.00. Weak, but the much greater weakness of probing 4 points under Wednesday”s 2061.25 low was isolated to overnight action. A test of the 2080.50 bias-up signal was put into play and attracted price higher. Extending higher through the noon hour to 2088.00 created room to absorb afternoon selling without damaging the chart, and 2080.50 held its touch before the close.

Overnight action”s new info…
The closing bounce tested
2085.00 trended higher overnight and eventually probed fresh highs at 2091.25. Its reaction down attacked 2085.00, twice. Each attack bounced back above 2088.00, which is being probed again now.

If, then…
Critical resistance at 2090.00-2095.25 is being tested overnight. Its range has been pivotal during the past four weeks. Two prior closes under it were resolved by gapping up above and extending to new highs. Tuesday”s close under it didn”t recover, as price action since then has been exclusively under 2090.00-2095.25. A lot of energy would be expended to probe above it, so there could be a very bearish consequence to not maintaining its recovery through a relevant timing window. Which assumes it will be probed, at all, since this morning”s Employment Situation report is being greeted from a position of weakness being below it.So, more than an initially negative knee-jerk reaction could find recent lows have chipped away at support. Either way, this being a Friday, the morning”s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour.

First Trade…
Preliminary levels are not available before an Employment Situation report. Look for their levels to be available in the chaRTroom after the report”s reaction.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

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(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
However Wednesday”s opening test of the prior afternoon”s 2090.75 high were to resolve, it would determine whether Tuesday afternoon”s sellers would be trapped. They had gained traction, and invalidating them would have triggered a squeeze. But the open”s blip-up pierced the 2092.75-2093.50 preliminary resistance and quickly reversed down sharply — plunging, actually, to 2070.50 which was the morning”s low. Bouncing to 2083.75 failed to invalidate a lower target, which was met during the afternoon bias environment”s slide to 2061.25. The last 60-90 minutes recovered the morning”s low up to 2075.00.

Overnight action”s new info…
Choppy sideways ranging touched as high as 2077.50 after midnight. A 10-point drop to 2067.50 into Europe”s opens was consolidated, but ultimately resolved down another 10 points  to 2057.00. Similar to yesterday, that has bounced to test the overnight drop”s initial low up to 2070.00.

If, then…
Did sellers overplay their hand overnight? Yesterday”s decline didn”t gain traction (because only its 2:30 bias environment exit was bearish). That”s not necessarily bullish, and anyway, the low”s buyers were rewarded fully already — the late bounce that completed a 61.8% retracement of the mid-day downleg. The overnight slide”s threat to resume the decline seems to have lacked sponsorship, since it has bounced 13 points, and well back above yesterday”s lows. Nevertheless, the bounce is just touching what is now resistance at this morning”s 2070.00 bias-down signal. Not recovering it through the open can be as bearish as yesterday”s failed opening test of its bias-up signal”s resistance.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2072.25-2073.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2070.00 bias-down signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2066.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

This morning”s chaRTroom links:
NOT xp-friendly (ilinc/Mitel)
XP-Friendly (Anymeeting)
— Last night”s candidate test is done —
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday”s open was on its way to recovering from an overnight dip. A Grexit headline retraced the recovery attempt from 2109.25 back down through the 2101.25 pre-open low, falling to fresh lows at the morning”s 2098.00 bias-down target. The morning broke lower to 2090.00, and a noon hour bounce to almost 2097.00 was reversed to 2081.25. Sellers gained traction for their efforts, exiting the bias environment under the noon hour”s low, and entering the final hour lower.

Overnight action”s new info…
Tuesday afternoon”s drop was partially recovered to 2092.50 before another dip returned to Tuesday afternoon”s 2081.50 low. The dip was eventually recovered entirely back up to 2092.50, and its reaction is now trying to resume the recovery.

If, then…
There”s no “unfinished business below” attracting price lower. But today”s open might make one, a gap back down to yesterday”s ~2083.50 close. Its near-term attraction could become irrelevant if the open were to extend above yesterday afternoon”s 2090.75 high. That could form a bullish “session-long rally” setup. Gapping up without extending would not complete the setup, which could be as bearish as the completed setup would have been bullish.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2090.75 — and preferably also above 2092.75 — would be likely also to trigger the 2089.75 bias-up signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2085.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

This morning”s chaRTroom links:

NOT xp-friendly (ilinc/Mitel)

XP-Friendly (Anymeeting)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday”s gap up to
2107.00 extended higher quickly. Already being above the morning”s 2103.00 bias-up signal, the open”s surge extended through its 2109.50 bias-up target. The 2114.75 renewed bias-up target was met before 10:15. Backing-and-filling through the noon hour held a retest of the 2107.00 open. But its reaction up to 2112.50 didn”t gain traction as the close dipped back to 2109.50.

Overnight action”s new info…
Drifting lower to
2104.50 finally found support into Europe”s opens. But a surge to 2111.75 was soon retraced, and now 2104.50 is being attacked again.

If, then…
Having failed to gain traction yesterday, the rally can resume this morning by gapping up and/or extending quickly through yesterday morning”s high. So, with the open less than two hours away, currently probing under yesterday”s lows must start retracing back into positive territory soon. Waiting until post-open before probing fresh highs would not prevent extending higher this morning, but it would likely force an afternoon reversal down. Resuming the rally from lower lows testing Friday”s high is still possible, but more difficult.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above
2112.25 would be likely also to trigger the 2110.75 bias-up signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2104.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up, and likely at least to test the 2103.50 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the
chaRTroom here (NOT xp-friendly)
One more day of
Anymeeting CLICK HERE
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Gapping up Friday above Thursday afternoon”s 2090.00 high essentially marginalized sellers for the day. Two tests of the 2095.25 renewed bias-up target were reacted down to test and retest 2088.00. But the rally resumed into the afternoon, extending to 2102.50. Only one timing window did not probe above its prior timing window, like a session-long decline.

Overnight action”s new info…
Looking at the market”s chart, you might think Greek headlines are promising, or that there aren”t any at all. Or the same for China. Price action was stoic, ranging narrowly between 2099.00-2102.00. Actually, their news isn”t by any means disastrous, but definitely on the negative side. Apparently, price just wanted to probe higher.A blip-down to 2098.00 at Europe”s opens was soon reversed through the range”s upper-end, to fresh highs now attacking 2108.00.

If, then…
2108.00 is retesting Wednesday”s highs. That was the inside day, which had gapped down into Tuesday morning”s range, which was that steep, deep temporary sell-off. Recovering to Wednesday”s highs is certainly not bearish, but its price still represents near-term resistance. A lot of energy is being expended just to test it. Meanwhile, gapping up is by definition extreme sentiment, and greeting the new week with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme (recall last Monday”s gap up). This morning”s bias-up target is still a couple of points higher, which is near enough to contribute to resistance. Resistance may yet hold and reverse the morning”s momentum back down. But extending higher just a little more could make the difference for extending much higher.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2105.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2103.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2111.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2109.50 bias-up target, renewing the bias-up signal. Exiting the open back under 2099.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2103.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.