The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday”s gap up to 2083.25 had probed higher and higher highs around 2088.00 in both the morning and afternoon. But despite the bias environment exit being above the noon hour”s high, both it and the final hour”s entry were still only ranging around the morning”s high. Lacking momentum, the final hour eventually reversed back down to 2083.25.

Overnight action”s new info…
Sideways ranging through Europe”s opens have been spooked by Greek election results. Spiking down to 2076.00 probed under Wednesday”s low, attacked Tuesday”s low, and touched last Monday”s last-minute high. Bouncing to 2082.50 has been supported by 2079.00, which is being tested again now.

If, then…
Wednesday”s low-volume session protected the rally from Tuesday”s potentially bearish setup, by inhibiting sponsorship of an opening drop. Friday”s illiquidity formed another version of the bearish setup, which this morning”s open is indicated to trigger. Or, at least, to try. Opening weakness is only half the battle. Trapping sellers through the open would become as bullish as not being trapped would be bearish.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2076.75 would be likely also to renew the bias-down signal by exceeding its 2074.75 bias-down target through 10:15. Opening above 2084.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2081.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday night”s narrow ranging wasn”t rejected at Wednesday”s open, and no-bias was triggered. The holiday-shortened session gradually firmed to test its 2082.75 bias-up signal. Double Topping there collapsed suddenly during the noon hour, plunging 5-6 points down to 2077.00. And that was still an inside day compared to Tuesday.

Overnight action”s new info…
Last night”s open spiked up to attack 2087.75, where price has been ranging narrowly since then.

If, then…
Unlike Wednesday, today is a full session. Unlike Wednesday, narrow overnight ranging is much less of a threat to inhibit trending intraday. Like Wednesday, Tuesday”s potentially bearish setup could still trigger through the open. And unlikely Wednesday, the setup could still trigger this afternoon — assuming the rally had not extended through the morning. That last qualifier of extending the rally is not an afterthought, but should be obvious through the open.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2084.75 would be likely also to trigger this morning”s 2082.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2078.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday”s pre-open surge had printed a “new Globex trend extreme” at 2084.50. Reacting down through the open and into bias environment touched Friday and Monday”s highs down to 2075.50. The opening gap”s attraction finally got it filled during the afternoon”s bias environment. A 5-1/2 point drop into the close attacked the morning”s low. The entire session developed almost exclusively above all prior intraday highs, the rally”s first such session.

Overnight action”s new info…
“Action” may be wrong word in this case. Retracing yesterday”s late drop 3-5 points touched its 2082.50 origin. A dip from there has attacked the 2079.00 futures close (cash session close was almost 2 points lower).

If, then…
That”s not much of a range overnight, and that”s not much volatility within it. This being a shortened session, not trending immediately probably won”t trend at all. Meanwhile, yesterday”s session is bearish if triggered through the open — otherwise, not so much. Triggering could be done either by quickly rejecting a probe of yesterday”s highs, or by trending down through the open.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2084.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2082.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Opening under 2075.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
All of Monday”s fireworks were contained in Sunday night”s semi-retracement of Friday”s late drop. Not rejecting the overnight gain allowed the cash session to trigger bias-up, by ultimately holding 2069.75 as support. But the entire session chopped flat-to-higher before a last-minute mini-surge finally touched the morning”s 2075.75 bias-up target.

Overnight action”s new info…
A narrow 2072.00-2075.00 range has contained most price action since yesterday”s close. Its upper-end is being tested again.

If, then…
Attracting sponsorship for trending is difficult since tomorrow”s session ends early and Thursday is closed. That cuts both ways — whether it is sponsorship to trend into new high territory, or sponsorship to reverse the prevailing uptrend. It is easier for price to retrace its recent footprints than to make new ones, but only after stretching the rubber band. So, probing fresh highs remains likelier than reversing down immediately. And reversing down from new highs remains likelier than extending them.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2076.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2076.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2069.00 would be likely to trigger the 2070.00 bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday”s sellers couldn”t catch a break. Literally. The morning”s choppy ranging held critical support at 2056.50 and exited the bias environment above the open”s low. then entered the noon hour above the overnight highs. The bullish WedEX helped a noon hour dip to 2058.00 recover up to fresh highs at 2076.00. Expiration”s wild card prompted a closing dip down to 2067.00.

Overnight action”s new info…
Post-close action had extended Friday”s late 2072.75 sell signal down to 2063.00. Sunday night”s open recovered the post-close dip and then ranged sideways. Rallying at Europe”s opens soon peaked at 2075.00, and its reaction down has twice tested this morning”s 2069.75 bias-up signal as support.

If, then…
WedEX doesn”t control whether Monday”s open is flat or if it gaps, but gapping down seems not to be the open”s intent. A deeper pullback pre-open is possible. So long as the first 15 minutes of volatility doesn”t trend down throughout, post-open open action should be biased upward into the noon hour.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2073.00 would be likely also to trigger this morning”s 2069.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2078.75 would be likely also to renew the bias-up signal by exceeding its 2075.75 bias-up target through 10:15. Exiting the open under 2065.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.