The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Gapping up 15 points 2835.00 near overnight highs Thursday extended higher into the noon hour to attack 2852.00. That expended 6-7 points more of energy than the likelier potential peak, so the subsequent reaction down encompassed the entire afternoon. The dip only reached 2838.50 in all of that time, in line wither being only a correction. A very last-minute surge through the close attacked 2846.00, where the morning’s rally had been likelier to begin correcting instead of adding the extra 6-7 points.

Overnight action’s new info…
No trending overnight, no fresh highs, and no significant gap open indicated. A bounce to 2849.00 was consolidated back down to 2843.00, even through Europe’s opens. More recently, a slide to fresh lows pierced yesterday’s late low by 3 ticks down to 2837.75. Its reaction is now testing the overnight range’s 2843.00 lower-end.

If, then…
Even without its last-minute surge, Thursday morning’s rally was only retraced and not reversed. But buyers didn’t gain traction for the morning’s effort. So, trending higher this morning would be likely by gapping up above yesterday’s afternoon’s 2849.50 high, which overnight action only attacked. Extending its reaction down under yesterday afternoon’s lows still has room down to 2835.50 before suggesting a deeper dip underway to 2826.00. Being a Friday — expiration, no less — the morning’s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2844.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2848.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2838.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2836.75 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s 20-point slide greeted Wednesday’s open at Monday’s close and under Friday’s lows, which served as resistance to the balance of the session. The open’s 23-point collapse to 2803.00 never extended any deeper any later, but it contained two intraday rallies. Barely, in the second rally’s case, which was just shallow enough to fulfill the fresh low close that Friday’s confirmed breakout had required. The morning’s low stopped 1 point short of its room for noise under the decline’s 2808.00 objective, which held two tests as support. The knee-jerk reaction to a headline coincided with an existing 2811.00 buy signal to produce the session’s second rally leg. The cash session’s 2819.00 closing equivalent was still overlapping 2818.00, a pivotal level that had served to attract morning sellers and now also afternoon buyers. Actively bearish WedEX triggered, as barely as Wednesday’s close had fulfilled the outstanding requirement for an eventual lower close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Fluctuating around yesterday’s close was almost reversing when another headline (China sending delegation to U.S. for trade talks) triggered another favorable knee-jerk reaction. Its surge tested and retested 2832.00 before dipping to 2825.50 into and out of Europe’s opens. But that found support to launch another upleg probing higher to 2837.25.

If, then…
Did I mention yesterday that the door remained open to probing fresh lows Thursday down to 2802.00? Only three times, noting each reason why (including the afternoon’s 2811.00 headline origin being an attraction below). Reaction to overnight news has made that less likely — so long as the open gaps up enough launch a recovery leg, as I also noted. Interestingly, that’s Friday’s 2826.00 and 2832.00 “higher prior lows” (now support, assuming their recovery through the open), whose solid breaks yesterday had finally invalidated Monday’s bullish Isolation setup. Gapping up would also serve by proxy to invert yesterday’s bearish WedEX. WedEX’s inversion is official if maintained through the opening 15 minutes of volatility, which would also negate any near-term attraction back down to 2802.00. The rejection of attractions below typically accelerates the pace of trending to attractions above.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2832.00 would be likely also to recover the 2830.50 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2828.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2824.50 bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s Inside Day began by rejecting a pre-open rally above Monday afternoon’s high. The combination of strength and reluctance produced a post-open reaction up from 2827.00 to 2842.00 at the bias environment’s high. Only 1 point higher was eked out during flat-to-higher ranging through the close, coming to within 1 point of Monday morning’s high. No new “unfinished business” was left outstanding. Trading exclusively above 2826.00 confirmed the bullish Isolation setup remains intact.

Overnight action’s new info…
Asia’s opens sent price down from 2843.00 to 2835.00 by midnight. Firming into Europe’s opens tested and retested 2839.50, and its shallow reaction had just begun recovering, when the news hit from Turkey. Almost two hours of relentless selling has extended down to 2821.75. Yesterday’s opening low is being probed by 5 points, under Monday’s 2823.00-2826.00 closes that yesterday’s opening low had stopped optimistically short of filling.

If, then…
Tuesday was an Inside Day with an upward bias, which doesn’t gain traction for its effort. It tends to resolve bearishly without gapping up the following day. Some sort of probe higher was likely, if not for the news, but the initial overnight dip suggests that a probe above yesterday’s high would have swung down sharply, anyway. So, what why assess a pattern that could have been, when it clearly won’t? Artificial selling from a headline reaction can have much more bearish implications if it exceeds the organic objective that would have fulfilled sellers, anyway. Friday’s confirmed breakout still has outstanding the requirement for at least an eventual fresh low close. Interim support is at 2818.00, but there’s room for that down to 2808.00 before suggesting a more durable drop underway. Only recovering yesterday’s 2831.00 open through this morning’s open would suggest otherwise.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2828.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2829.75 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2831.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2836.25 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s pre-open recovery had extended post-open to attack 2844.00. That was just the first hour. Despite triggering the 2040.75 bias-up signal and putting into play its 2847.75 bias-up target, a 22-point, 2-1/2 hour drop exited the noon hour back at the 2820.50 overnight lows. That was structural support, and also calculable support for being the afternoon’s bias-down target. The 2826.00 bias-down signal was recovered just in time to avoid triggering, extending to test its 2833.75 bias-up signal’s resistance. Sliding through the balance of the session attacked session lows.

Overnight action’s new info…
Initially firming attacked and then tested 2832.00 by midnight, still far enough below yesterday afternoon’s high to not be considered “stopping pessimistically short.” Nevertheless, extending higher into and out of Europe’s opens has attacked 2839.00. Its 6-point reaction held at test of 2833.00, and another bounce is within 1 point of fresh highs.

If, then…
(The correct value for bias-up is 2830.50)… “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at the morning’s 2847.75 bias-up target. Monday morning’s Isolation setup was all but invalidated. Friday’s breakout was essentially confirmed. Gapping up Tuesday above Monday afternoon’s 2833.50 high, after having trended down into Monday’s close, would form a “session-long rally” setup. The Isolation setup would get a reprieve, and the confirmed breakout would get a detour. Otherwise, at least a third lower close is now required. Meanwhile, overnight trending has been relentless, which is always more vulnerable to a post-open reversal. And if the overnight margin above afternoon’s 2833.50 high remains so obvious getting closer to the open, then NOT maintaining it post-open could be as bearish as the setup would have been bearish.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] (There was an error in publishing this morning’s bias-up signal. Its correct value is 2830.50)… Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2832.75 would be likely to trigger the 2830.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2837.50 would be likely to exceed the 2836.00 bias-up signal through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Last week’s relatively narrow 3-day range had been entered by gapping up. It resolved similarly, gapping down 16-17 points into Friday’s 2837.00 open. The morning’s 2832.00-2843.00 range exited the bias environment on its highs, then fell relentlessly through the afternoon bias environment to 2826.00 on no-bias trending. Its required retracement helped to recover the probe under the morning’s lows, as a steep bounce out of the proxy window retraced 61.8% up to 2838.00-2840.00 through the close. But not 100%, as the session’s interim high was not recovered.

Overnight action’s new info…
Renewed roiling of the Turkish Lira helped Sunday night’s open collapse down to 2828.25. It was soon extended to Friday’s lows, and down to 2820.25 through midnight. Its reaction back into Friday’s range touched 2831.75 before dipping again. Now that dip’s higher low has also recovered back into Friday’s range.

If, then…
Recovering the probe under Friday morning’s low had robbed sellers of their traction, but remained vulnerable to retest because momentum hadn’t reversed up above the morning’s 2841.00-2843.00. Its recovery would no longer suffice for reversing the trend up, which now requires closing above 2847.00. Fresh lows overnight don’t seem interested in a recovery, but repeatedly bouncing back above Friday’s lows does lay groundwork for a bullish Isolation setup. Preferably exiting the open above Friday morning’s low would target a retest of last week’s 2863.50 highs. Otherwise, not exploiting the setup could resolve as bearishly as it would have been bullish. More so, having already neutralized Friday morning’s attraction back down to its oversold RSIs, closing lower today anyway would be fresh bearish sponsorship.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2834.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2831.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2828.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.