The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s similarity to Wednesday — not so much in form as in function — continued the behavior as if lost in the Bermuda Triangle. The morning’s late no-bias signal left its 2866.25 target outstanding. The afternoon’s noN-bias fluctuated narrowly and couldn’t sustain its attack on session highs. Those are similar in function, reflecting weak-handed sponsorship on both sides. The final minutes repeated Wednesday’s late plunge back to session lows. Wednesday’s “unfinished business below” at 2852.00 was almost met.

Overnight action’s new info…
The ongoing inability to rally was likely due to the 2852.00 unfinished business below. And probing under it down to 2841.00-2843.00 to compensate for the delay had become likely. Thursday night’s slide immediately fulfilled 2852.00, and then kept grinding lower to attack 2848.00. Breaking sharply lower extended to 2839.00 into Europe’s opens. Ranging sideways back up to 2844.00. An overnight measurement to 2838.00 was finally fulfilled down to 2836.75, and now 2841.00-2843.00 is being tested as resistance.

If, then…
An Isolation setup is probably off the table. The overnight test of lower attractions should be threatening Thursday’s lows by now. Testing and holding 2841.00-2843.00 through the open could at least start forming a low. A bigger bounce from gapping down would likely dip from 2851.00-2852.00 to back-and-fill before a durable recovery. Post-open selling at some point is almost required, to let the intraday crowed express what the overnight crowd has been doing all night.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2843.00 would be likely also not to recover the 2846.00 bias-down target by 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2848.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2851.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s 2856.00 bias-down signal was hard fought. It had held a test overnight before being probed through the open. Its grace period was barely invoked, and then its signal barely triggered by 1 tick. And that was just the signal’s struggle. Its 2851.00 bias-down target was only attacked to within only 2 points before price reversed up aggressively to attack the 2861.25 overnight high. The noon hour’s dip back down to 2856.00 was recovered to a fresh high at 2862.50 as the position-squaring window opened. But 2856.00 wasn’t finished, as price plunged 10 points down to 2885.50 into the Globex open. “Unfinished business below” at 2851.00 was still outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
The plunge left price action stunned, and consolidating under 2856.00. No new selling has emerged, except into a couple of bounces. The first to 2858.50 found sellers into Europe’s opens. The second into 2860.00 has now reacted back down to 2856.00.

If, then…
Wednesday afternoon’s inability to gain traction and its last-minute plunge suggest the intraday bounce was a hopeful detour. Originating from a test of the 2851.00 target would have allowed in stronger-handed sponsorship. Instead the detour will inhibit patient stronger hands from defending 2851.00. We would anticipate stronger hands are already buying if today were gapping up above yesterday’s high. But that’s not currently indicated. More so, overnight action has only bounced, further inhibiting strong-handed buyers from trying to absorb fresh lows. Regardless, gapping up Thursday above Wednesday’s 2861.00-2862.50 highs would resume the rally, and only triggering bias-up would at least extend the detour. Upside potential would still be 2873.00-2883.00. Otherwise, under 2851.00 would next target 2841.00-2843.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2856.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2859.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2861.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The rally seems to be in a stage of relentlessness. Gapping up Tuesday above Monday’s 2853.50 high to 2857.00, and not trending up from within Monday’s range, reflects strong-handed sponsorship. It creates a position of strength. Tuesday’s open attracted more strength as it rallied another 8 points to attack 2864.00. That’s a lot of energy to expend, gapping up and extending, but the position of strength would keep strong-handed sellers away. The open’s rally didn’t resume, but the balance of the session only ranged choppily sideways back down to 2858.00 — still above Monday’s highs.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday afternoon’s choppy range persisted overnight, albeit more narrowly between 2858.00-2861.50. With one exception, breaking lower to 2856.25 into Europe’s opens. But only a brief exception, as the break was recovered back into the range as quickly as it had developed. Now 2861.50 is being attacked.

If, then…
Extending the rally would next target 2873.00 with potential to 2883.00. Probing fresh highs this morning probably wouldn’t tolerate much hesitation in extending — yesterday and now the overnight has done enough backing-and-filling. Hesitating at fresh highs for too long could soon reverse back under overnight lows. Hesitating to probe higher at all could soon reverse back under overnight lows, too. Regardless of how it starts, a dip would be considered only a temporary correction, whether just testing Monday afternoon’s range down to 2851.00-2852.00, or deeper down to 2841.00-2843.00..

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2858.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2856.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2861.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2864.00 bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
SPECIAL NOTE: I’ve produced two new Bias Parameter videos, an introduction and an example. They’re linked perpetually on the daily Bias blog posts. A handy library of actual examples will be made available later this week, along with much more supporting reference items…

Monday morning’s probe of fresh highs was indicated already when Friday afternoon’s rally gained traction. But extending higher Monday also overcame a couple of challenges. First, the Globex-flip setup had threatened to reject its overnight probe above Friday’s 2840.50 highs. Then, the 2841.00 bias-up signal’s rejection was threatened during its grace period. But both reversal attempts only trapped more sellers, and their covering helped to fuel the rally through the noon hour. The balance of the session fluctuated around the two-week old 2850.00 prior high. The new recovery high close fulfilled the outstanding requirement. And the afternoon’s 2854.25 bias-up target became “unfinished business above.”

Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-higher ranging gradually improved through midnight to 2852.50. Rallying into and out of Europe’s opens extended through yesterday’s 2853.50 high to 2858.50. There was enough complexity to qualify as a “new Globex trend extreme,” which requires eventual intraday retest.

If, then…
Extending higher overnight seems to be confirming the rally is in its relentless stage. This doesn’t prevent dips, in the context of higher highs and higher lows. But dips should be either shallower, briefer, or both — until getting much closer to the next higher target at 2873.00. Meanwhile, gapping up could break free from Monday afternoon’s Symmetrical Triangle, and avoid being a false break that would otherwise reverse more substantially in the opposite direction.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2856.00 would be likely to trigger the 2854.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2848.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s Employment Situation report was greeted at Thursday’s 2828.50-2831.00 highs. A China trade war headline was still being absorbed, so price only fluctuated there into and out of the open. The morning attacked the 2836.00 overnight high temporarily, dipping back down into the open’s range — but never reversing lower. Recovering through the noon hour extended higher through the balance of the session. Both the morning and afternoon’s 2837.50 and 2838.50 bias-up targets were met by a surge into the position-squaring window. Last-minute action extended up to 2840.50. No new unfinished business was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open blipped up to 2843.00, then drifted back down 3 points. Fresh highs up to 2845.00 before midnight then drifted back down 3 points, too. And then another 3 points back to the first 3-point reaction’s low. And then another 5 points down to Friday morning’s 2835.00 high. Volatility has only expanded during the past two hours, which surged 8 points to 2843.00 — back above Friday’s highs, for now.

If, then…
Friday’s close retraced the prior week’s 2838.25-2842.25 high close. This confirms the interim dip was only a temporary correction. Consequently, that also confirms the outstanding unfinished business above, requiring an eventual third higher close. Friday’s close at the prior week’s high close doesn’t qualify. So, the question is whether today will fulfill it. The earlier overnight lows were threatened AFTER probing above the prior session’s highs, which would reverse the trend down through this morning, at least. Maintaining its recovery would keep the door open to extending the rally without delay.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2843.00 would be likely to trigger the 2841.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2838.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.