The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open was greeted by an overnight double-digit slide to fresh lows at 2791.00, already reacting up to 2797.50. While the pre-open recovery had been gradual, the post-open rally steepened almost immediately. Albeit a late trigger, no-bias rejected tests of both the 2801.50 and 2807.50 bias-down parameters and put into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters at 2815.50 and 2822.00. The objectives were fulfilled going into and coming out of the noon hour. The afternoon bias environment’s high touched the lower-end of its 2828.50-2831.00 renewed bias-up target. Its reaction down was recovered through the close to touch the target’s upper-end.

Overnight action’s new info…
Whether anxiousness ahead of Friday morning’s Employment Situation report, or just patience before the news, there were no traces of Thursday’s rally during Globex — not until minutes ago. Hardly any traces of any volatility is always eerie ahead of high-profile news. The immediately began dipping back into Thursday afternoon’s range down to 2826.00 before midnight. A breathtaking 3-point bounce into Europe’s opens was retraced to test 2825.00. The dip was brief, and temporary, as another bounce is now probing fresh highs to 2835.50 on China FX news.

If, then…
A lot of buying pressure was expended Friday, relentlessly, without gaining traction for its effort. That makes its optimism “ineffectual optimism.” Literally all available buying pressure was expended, fulfilling but holding 2828.50-2831.00. It’s not a sell signal, but it essentially requires more optimism without delay to avoid being reversed. The outstanding requirement for at least an eventual third higher close tilts the odds in favor of extending Thursday’s rally. Rallying from the intraday test of 2801.50 raises the concern for some interim reaction down first.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] There is no preliminary indication ahead of Employment Situation reports.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s delayed surge up to 2826.00 was doomed to failure, on two counts. It was no-bias trending after failng to trigger the morning’s 2823.25 bias-up signal. And it was unlikely to attract sponsorship ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC event. But its reaction down was less inhibited, exceeding its 2815.00 target by 61.8% down to 2808.00. That wasn’t necessarily sponsorship, but gravity revisiting the range’s other end. And it helped to soften the blow, as a brief dip to 2805.50 stopped 1 point short of its potential, and bounced back up to 2817.00. But the bounce was otherwise unimpressive, and the close dipped back down to 2808.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
The last-minute dip was initially retraced back up to Wednesday afternoon’s bounce up to 2815.00. The afternoon’s low was being attacked by midnight. And probed ahead of Europe’s opens down to 2804.50. The trending has only extended — relentlessly — down to 2791.00.

If, then…
The overnight slide confirms yesterday’s conclusion: That the FOMC’s delayed knee-jerk reaction (is that a thing?) to within only 1 point of 2804.50, and the unimpressive bounce, had meant the morning’s slide didn’t discount the FOMC events enough. Or, that other events are still being discounted. Potential to retest 2801.50 remained alive. And there’s no bullish reason for that again, unless isolated. Overnight is one possibility, if the open has recovered back above yesterday’s 2805.50-2808.00 lows. Otherwise, the next lower attraction is the 2775.00-2781.00 area. And the next major observation is whether tomorrow’s Employment Situation report is being greeted from a position of strength, or weakness.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2797.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2801.50 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2804.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2807.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s open was greeted back up at Monday afternoon’s 2811.25 high. Almost. A headline just minutes before the open triggered a spike up to 2818.50. Where the overnight bounce had threatened unconvincingly to gap up above 2811.25, unconvincingly, the spike up promised deceptively. Neither would qualify for triggering a “session-long rally” setup, and the spike up was retraced back down to the morning’s 2808.50 bias-up signal. Another surge developed into the noon hour up to 2825.00, but its resistance held, too, and the balance of the session drifted lower into the cash session close at 2817.00. Futures bounced to 2824.00. That included a late blip-down to 2813.75 in reaction to another headline.

Overnight action’s new info…
Just closing at or above 2817.00 Tuesday had kept sellers from regaining traction. A hold-long was avoided, but an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction to AAPL’s earnings blipped-up to attack 2828.00. Price had dipped back under Tuesday’s high when news hit of new US tariffs against China. Spiking down pierced Tuesday’s late 2813.00 low by 2 points. Ranging choppily sideways overnight is now retesting 2813.00 as support.

If, then…
Retracing the post-close surge doesn’t yet equate to rejecting it. But exiting the open in negative territory could set a bearish tone ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. Whatever its reaction, interim defensive posturing could repeat Monday’s test of 2801.50. And that only serves to chip away at support at this stage. Defensive posturing ahead of FOMC could be accomplished by a shallower dip, but there’s a lot of time before then, and still a lot of news. Extending higher through Wednesday’s open would all but confirm one more upleg is underway, targeting 2873.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2811.00 would be likely to trigger the 2813.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2817.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2820.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2823.25 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s flat open deceptively seemed like a recovery, after having probed both bias-down parameters overnight. But that was too late to still be challenging positive territory. So the open’s blip-up to 2821.75 snapped back down through the noon hour to 2798.25. The pullback’s next lower objective at 2801.50 was met, and held as support through the close. Actually, 2801.50 was still being overlapped at the close, but not broken.

Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday afternoon’s choppy ranging has only narrowed overnight. A very shallow upward tilt has gradually improved from 2803.00-2804.00 to touch 2811.00. Perhaps not yet actually improvement, and still little more than it is just noise. Or, anxiousness.

If, then…
Monday’s closing test of 2801.50 can still be rejected by proxy, if Tuesday’s open were to gap up above the prior high. That’s Monday afternoon’s 2811.25 high, currently being attacked. Avoiding fresh overnight lows isn’t necessarily stability, not without alternatively rejecting yesterday’s trend. Overnight action is close to probing 2811.25, but its recovery at the open would be more credible if already serving as support. And having trended down into Monday’s close, the setup would also trigger a session-long reversal. Shallower opening strength would remain vulnerable to another downleg targeting 2875.00-2881.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2811.25 would be likely to trigger the 2808.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2805.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s shallow rally was nevertheless relentless, and also productive for having probed Thursday’s 2846.50 high. The proximity to “unfinished business above” at 2848.75 proved irrelevant when the 2842.00 open slid to 2830.00 through the morning. More so as the slide accelerated to test 2809.00 through the noon hour. The balance of the afternoon ranged choppily flat-to-higher up to 2821.00, forming an Ascending Triangle. Testing the 2818.00 “lower prior high” held through the close, while neutralizing unfinished business below at 2813.75.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open bobbled momentarily, then soon spiked down and eventually extended to 2806.50 before midnight. Firming into and out of Europe’s opens has only continued firming, now attacking Friday’s 2817.50 futures close to within 3 ticks. Friday’s cash session close equated to 2820.00.

If, then…
Both bias-down parameters have been probed overnight. Often, the bias-up signal is also tested. Whether or not bias-up then triggers is determined from post-open price action. That’s if bias-up is also tested, which it often is — but not always. Greeting the open in negative territory under 2817.50-2820.00 would more likely retest overnight lows. And extending Friday morning’s decline would next target 2801.50.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2813.00 would be likely to trigger the 2815.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2821.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.